關於比特幣 4 年後的 3 個大膽預測（最後一個可能會讓你感到震驚）

自從三月創下歷史新高以來，比特幣（CRYPTO：BTC）在很大程度上令加密貨幣投資者感到失望。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has largely disappointed crypto investors ever since hitting a new all-time high in March. The price of Bitcoin is still trading at around $68,000, which is approximately where it was three months ago.

自從三月創下歷史新高以來，比特幣（CRYPTO：BTC）在很大程度上令加密貨幣投資者感到失望。比特幣的價格仍然在 68,000 美元左右，大約是三個月前的水平。

Moreover, the two big Bitcoin catalysts of 2024 -- the launch of the new spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the halving of mining fees -- have now come and gone. So is it time to rethink where Bitcoin could be headed over the next few years? Let's take a closer look.

此外，2024 年比特幣的兩大催化劑——新的現貨交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的推出和挖礦費用減半——現在已經來了又去。那麼，是時候重新思考比特幣未來幾年的發展方向了嗎？讓我們仔細看看。

Base case scenario

基本案例場景

The base case scenario assumes that spot Bitcoin ETFs will continue seeing an influx of new investor money, and that Wall Street will continue to embrace Bitcoin as a new asset class for portfolio diversification purposes. Over time, this constant influx of new money should send Bitcoin higher.

基本情境假設現貨比特幣 ETF 將繼續看到新的投資者資金湧入，並且華爾街將繼續接受比特幣作為投資組合多元化目的的新資產類別。隨著時間的推移，新資金的不斷湧入應該會推高比特幣。

But how much higher? There are trade-offs involved in Bitcoin going mainstream, and one of them is that Bitcoin could start to behave more and more like a traditional asset. That means it may no longer deliver the astronomical returns that it once did.

但高出多少呢？比特幣成為主流需要權衡，其中之一是比特幣的行為可能會開始越來越像傳統資產。這意味著它可能不再像以前那樣提供天文數字的回報。

In the decade between 2011 and 2021, Bitcoin delivered annualized returns of 230% per year, compared to 20% per year for tech stocks. Thus, a more reasonable estimate for Bitcoin's future annual returns might be closer to 20%, not 230%.

在 2011 年至 2021 年間，比特幣的年化報酬率為 230%，而科技股的年化報酬率為 20%。因此，對比特幣未來年回報率的更合理估計可能接近 20%，而不是 230%。

If we use this 20% growth estimate, then four years from now, the price of Bitcoin could more than double from its current level of $70,000 to nearly $150,000. That's impressive, but nowhere near the $1 million price that some Wall Street analysts are now predicting.

如果我們使用 20% 的成長預測，那麼四年後，比特幣的價格可能會從目前的 7 萬美元水準翻一番以上，達到近 15 萬美元。這是令人印象深刻的，但遠低於一些華爾街分析師目前預測的 100 萬美元價格。

Bull case scenario

牛市情景

The bull case scenario assumes that the steady influx of money into the new Bitcoin ETFs will turn into a tsunami. It also assumes that institutional investors will start to make Bitcoin one of their largest holdings. Right now, institutional investors may only allocate 1% or less of their holdings to Bitcoin. But what if they ramp up that figure to 5%, 10%, or even 20%? That's when the price of Bitcoin could really take off.

牛市情境假設資金穩定湧入新的比特幣 ETF 將演變成一場海嘯。它還假設機構投資者將開始將比特幣作為他們最大的持股之一。目前，機構投資者只能將其持有的 1% 或更少的資產分配給比特幣。但如果他們將這個數字提高到 5%、10% 甚至 20% 呢？那時比特幣的價格可能會真正起飛。

At the same time, the bull case scenario assumes that the much-anticipated Bitcoin halving will deliver as originally expected. In three previous halving cycles (in 2012, 2016, and 2020), the price of Bitcoin absolutely exploded. So why can't it happen this time, too?

同時，牛市情境假設備受期待的比特幣減半將如最初預期的實現。在之前的三個減半週期中（2012年、2016年和2020年），比特幣的價格絕對是爆炸性的。那為什麼這次也不能發生呢？

In the previous halving cycle, for example, the price of Bitcoin skyrocketed from $10,000 in May 2020 to $60,000 in April 2021. So any bullish forecast needs to include an extended period of very rapid growth in Bitcoin's price.

例如，在上一個減半週期中，比特幣的價格從 2020 年 5 月的 10,000 美元飆升至 2021 年 4 月的 60,000 美元。

Finally, the bull case scenario assumes that Congressional lawmakers will pass pro-Bitcoin legislation after the 2024 election. We're already hearing rumblings of a massive sea change in how Washington, D.C. views crypto, and if the next president is bullish on Bitcoin, that's when things could get very interesting.

最後，牛市情境假設國會立法者將在 2024 年大選後通過支持比特幣的立法。我們已經聽到華盛頓特區對加密貨幣的看法發生巨大變化的傳言，如果下一任總統看好比特幣，那麼事情可能會變得非常有趣。

Bear case scenario

熊市情景

The bear case scenario is basically the "I told you so" scenario. It's what happens when all the warnings from high-profile investors turn out to have been right. For years, some of the top names on Wall Street have claimed that Bitcoin is basically just a giant Ponzi scheme. And Warren Buffett said that he would not pay $25 for all the Bitcoin in the world.

熊市情景基本上是「我告訴過你了」的情景。當知名投資者的所有警告被證明是正確的時候，就會發生這種情況。多年來，華爾街的一些頂級人士一直聲稱比特幣基本上只是一個巨大的龐氏騙局。華倫巴菲特表示，他不會花 25 美元購買世界上所有的比特幣。

This is not to say that Bitcoin will fall to zero over the next four years, only that it might not deliver the type of life-changing wealth that some people expect. What happens, for example, if the halving turns out to be a flop? Or if people stop putting their money into the new spot Bitcoin ETFs? Or if any crypto legislation in Congress stalls due to political infighting? In such a scenario, Bitcoin might never go mainstream. And if Bitcoin doesn't go mainstream, there's no way it's going to $1 million.

這並不是說比特幣將在未來四年內跌至零，只是說它可能無法提供一些人期望的改變生活的財富類型。例如，如果減半結果失敗，會發生什麼事？或者如果人們停止將資金投入新的現貨比特幣 ETF？或者國會的任何加密立法是否因政治內鬥而陷入停滯？在這種情況下，比特幣可能永遠不會成為主流。如果比特幣不成為主流，它就不可能達到 100 萬美元。

Consider a range of potential outcomes

考慮一系列潛在的結果

When thinking about Bitcoin, it's important to consider a range of different outcomes. It doesn't matter if you call them "bull case" or "bear case" scenarios, just that you recognize that a few minor changes in your core assumptions could have a huge effect on where you think the price of Bitcoin is headed next.

在考慮比特幣時，重要的是要考慮一系列不同的結果。無論您將其稱為“牛市”還是“熊市”情景，都沒關係，只要您認識到核心假設中的一些微小變化可能會對您認為比特幣價格下一步走向產生巨大影響。

For example, consider Cathie Wood of Ark Invest. While she has predicted that the price of Bitcoin could hit $1.48 million by 2030, she also provides a bear case scenario, in which Bitcoin might only hit $258,500. Those wide swings in outcomes are based on tweaking just a few key parameters

例如，考慮 Ark Invest 的 Cathie Wood。雖然她預測到 2030 年比特幣的價格可能會達到 148 萬美元，但她也提供了一個熊市情景，即比特幣的價格可能只會達到 258,500 美元。結果的大幅波動是基於調整幾個關鍵參數