关于比特币 4 年后的 3 个大胆预测（最后一个可能会让你感到震惊）

自三月份创下历史新高以来，比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）在很大程度上令加密货币投资者感到失望。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has largely disappointed crypto investors ever since hitting a new all-time high in March. The price of Bitcoin is still trading at around $68,000, which is approximately where it was three months ago.

自三月份创下历史新高以来，比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）在很大程度上令加密货币投资者感到失望。比特币的价格仍然在 68,000 美元左右，大约是三个月前的水平。

Moreover, the two big Bitcoin catalysts of 2024 -- the launch of the new spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the halving of mining fees -- have now come and gone. So is it time to rethink where Bitcoin could be headed over the next few years? Let's take a closer look.

此外，2024 年比特币的两大催化剂——新的现货交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的推出和挖矿费用减半——现在已经来了又去。那么，是时候重新思考比特币未来几年的发展方向了吗？让我们仔细看看。

Base case scenario

基本案例场景

The base case scenario assumes that spot Bitcoin ETFs will continue seeing an influx of new investor money, and that Wall Street will continue to embrace Bitcoin as a new asset class for portfolio diversification purposes. Over time, this constant influx of new money should send Bitcoin higher.

基本情景假设现货比特币 ETF 将继续看到新的投资者资金涌入，并且华尔街将继续接受比特币作为投资组合多元化目的的新资产类别。随着时间的推移，新资金的不断涌入应该会推高比特币。

But how much higher? There are trade-offs involved in Bitcoin going mainstream, and one of them is that Bitcoin could start to behave more and more like a traditional asset. That means it may no longer deliver the astronomical returns that it once did.

但高出多少呢？比特币成为主流需要权衡，其中之一是比特币的行为可能会开始越来越像传统资产。这意味着它可能不再像以前那样提供天文数字的回报。

In the decade between 2011 and 2021, Bitcoin delivered annualized returns of 230% per year, compared to 20% per year for tech stocks. Thus, a more reasonable estimate for Bitcoin's future annual returns might be closer to 20%, not 230%.

在 2011 年至 2021 年间，比特币的年化回报率为 230%，而科技股的年化回报率为 20%。因此，对比特币未来年回报率的更合理估计可能接近 20%，而不是 230%。

If we use this 20% growth estimate, then four years from now, the price of Bitcoin could more than double from its current level of $70,000 to nearly $150,000. That's impressive, but nowhere near the $1 million price that some Wall Street analysts are now predicting.

如果我们使用 20% 的增长预测，那么四年后，比特币的价格可能会从目前的 70,000 美元水平翻一番以上，达到近 150,000 美元。这是令人印象深刻的，但远低于一些华尔街分析师现在预测的 100 万美元的价格。

Bull case scenario

牛市情景

The bull case scenario assumes that the steady influx of money into the new Bitcoin ETFs will turn into a tsunami. It also assumes that institutional investors will start to make Bitcoin one of their largest holdings. Right now, institutional investors may only allocate 1% or less of their holdings to Bitcoin. But what if they ramp up that figure to 5%, 10%, or even 20%? That's when the price of Bitcoin could really take off.

牛市情景假设资金稳定涌入新的比特币 ETF 将演变成一场海啸。它还假设机构投资者将开始将比特币作为他们最大的持仓之一。目前，机构投资者只能将其持有的 1% 或更少的资产分配给比特币。但如果他们将这个数字提高到 5%、10% 甚至 20% 呢？那时比特币的价格可能真正起飞。

At the same time, the bull case scenario assumes that the much-anticipated Bitcoin halving will deliver as originally expected. In three previous halving cycles (in 2012, 2016, and 2020), the price of Bitcoin absolutely exploded. So why can't it happen this time, too?

与此同时，牛市情景假设备受期待的比特币减半将如最初预期的那样实现。在之前的三个减半周期中（2012年、2016年和2020年），比特币的价格绝对是爆炸式的。那么为什么这次也不能发生呢？

In the previous halving cycle, for example, the price of Bitcoin skyrocketed from $10,000 in May 2020 to $60,000 in April 2021. So any bullish forecast needs to include an extended period of very rapid growth in Bitcoin's price.

例如，在上一个减半周期中，比特币的价格从 2020 年 5 月的 10,000 美元飙升至 2021 年 4 月的 60,000 美元。因此，任何看涨的预测都需要包括比特币价格的长期快速增长。

Finally, the bull case scenario assumes that Congressional lawmakers will pass pro-Bitcoin legislation after the 2024 election. We're already hearing rumblings of a massive sea change in how Washington, D.C. views crypto, and if the next president is bullish on Bitcoin, that's when things could get very interesting.

最后，牛市情景假设国会立法者将在 2024 年大选后通过支持比特币的立法。我们已经听到有关华盛顿特区对加密货币的看法发生巨大变化的传言，如果下一任总统看好比特币，那么事情可能会变得非常有趣。

Bear case scenario

熊市情景

The bear case scenario is basically the "I told you so" scenario. It's what happens when all the warnings from high-profile investors turn out to have been right. For years, some of the top names on Wall Street have claimed that Bitcoin is basically just a giant Ponzi scheme. And Warren Buffett said that he would not pay $25 for all the Bitcoin in the world.

熊市情景基本上是“我告诉过你了”的情景。当知名投资者的所有警告被证明是正确的时候，就会发生这种情况。多年来，华尔街的一些顶级人士一直声称比特币基本上只是一个巨大的庞氏骗局。沃伦·巴菲特表示，他不会花 25 美元购买世界上所有的比特币。

This is not to say that Bitcoin will fall to zero over the next four years, only that it might not deliver the type of life-changing wealth that some people expect. What happens, for example, if the halving turns out to be a flop? Or if people stop putting their money into the new spot Bitcoin ETFs? Or if any crypto legislation in Congress stalls due to political infighting? In such a scenario, Bitcoin might never go mainstream. And if Bitcoin doesn't go mainstream, there's no way it's going to $1 million.

这并不是说比特币将在未来四年内跌至零，只是说它可能无法提供一些人期望的改变生活的财富类型。例如，如果减半结果失败，会发生什么？或者如果人们停止将资金投入新的现货比特币 ETF？或者国会的任何加密立法是否因政治内斗而陷入停滞？在这种情况下，比特币可能永远不会成为主流。如果比特币不成为主流，它就不可能达到 100 万美元。

Consider a range of potential outcomes

考虑一系列潜在的结果

When thinking about Bitcoin, it's important to consider a range of different outcomes. It doesn't matter if you call them "bull case" or "bear case" scenarios, just that you recognize that a few minor changes in your core assumptions could have a huge effect on where you think the price of Bitcoin is headed next.

在考虑比特币时，重要的是要考虑一系列不同的结果。无论您将其称为“牛市”还是“熊市”情景，都没关系，只要您认识到核心假设中的一些微小变化可能会对您认为比特币价格下一步走向产生巨大影响。

For example, consider Cathie Wood of Ark Invest. While she has predicted that the price of Bitcoin could hit $1.48 million by 2030, she also provides a bear case scenario, in which Bitcoin might only hit $258,500. Those wide swings in outcomes are based on tweaking just a few key parameters

例如，考虑 Ark Invest 的 Cathie Wood。虽然她预测到 2030 年比特币的价格可能会达到 148 万美元，但她也提供了一个熊市情景，即比特币的价格可能只会达到 258,500 美元。结果的大幅波动是基于调整几个关键参数