Bitwise預測比特幣變革軌跡，減半開啟新時代

Bitwise 是一家新興的比特幣 ETF 發行商，它對 2028 年比特幣減半之前的加密貨幣未來做出了大膽預測。這些預測植根於歷史趨勢和複雜的市場分析，設想了一個以波動性減少、機構採用增加、ETF 爆炸性增長，甚至中央銀行可能採用比特幣為特徵的前景。最終，Bitwise 預計 BTC 的價格將飆升至 25 萬美元以上，以鞏固其作為全球金融體系基石資產的地位。

Bitwise Unveils Bold Predictions for Bitcoin's Future: Halving to Unleash Transformative Era

Bitwise 公佈對比特幣未來的大膽預測：減半將開啟變革時代

New York, March 22, 2023 - Bitwise Asset Management, the fourth-largest spot Bitcoin ETF issuer in the United States, managing assets worth $1.778 billion, has released a series of groundbreaking predictions outlining the transformative trajectory of Bitcoin leading up to the 2028 halving. These projections not only draw upon historical data and trends but also anticipate a profound integration of Bitcoin into the mainstream financial ecosystem.

紐約，2023 年3 月22 日- Bitwise Asset Management，美國第四大現貨比特幣ETF 發行商，管理價值17.78 億美元的資產，發布了一系列突破性的預測，概述了比特幣在2028 年減半之前的變革軌跡。這些預測不僅借鑒了歷史數據和趨勢，還預測了比特幣將深入融入主流金融生態系統。

1. Dwindling Volatility: Bitcoin's Path to Maturity

1. 波動性下降：比特幣的成熟之路

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, envisions a significant reduction in Bitcoin's volatility, predicting a 50% decrease by the 2028 halving. This forecast stems from the observed historical trend of diminishing volatility, a trend that is expected to accelerate as the composition of Bitcoin's market participants evolves.

Bitwise 首席投資長 Matt Hougan 預計比特幣的波動性將大幅降低，預計到 2028 年減半時將降低 50%。這項預測源自於觀察到的波動性減弱的歷史趨勢，隨著比特幣市場參與者組成的變化，這一趨勢預計將加速。

The influx of institutional investors through Bitcoin ETFs has played a pivotal role in stabilizing price fluctuations. Unlike retail investors, who are prone to impulsive reactions to market movements and news events, institutional investors typically employ strategic approaches involving calibrated market entries and exits.

機構投資者透過比特幣ETF湧入，在穩定價格波動方面發揮了關鍵作用。與容易對市場趨勢和新聞事件做出衝動反應的散戶投資者不同，機構投資者通常採用涉及校準市場進入和退出的策略方法。

"The introduction of ETFs has paved the way for a more disciplined approach to Bitcoin investing, which will significantly mitigate the historical volatility associated with this asset class," Hougan asserted.

「ETF 的推出為更嚴格的比特幣投資方式鋪平了道路，這將顯著減輕與該資產類別相關的歷史波動性，」Hougan 斷言。

2. Embracing Bitcoin in Target-Date Portfolios

2. 在目標日期投資組合中擁抱比特幣

Bitwise anticipates the widespread inclusion of Bitcoin allocations in target-date portfolios, with allocations potentially reaching 5% or more. This prediction stems from the growing familiarity and acceptance of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class among financial advisors. Hougan believes that the current absence of Bitcoin in major target-date funds in the United States is a temporary anomaly.

Bitwise 預計比特幣配置將廣泛納入目標日期投資組合，配置可能達到 5% 或更多。這項預測源自於財務顧問對比特幣作為合法資產類別的日益熟悉和接受。 Hougan認為，目前美國主要目標日期基金中沒有比特幣是暫時的異常現象。

"As the market matures and volatility continues to decline, the perceived risk of incorporating Bitcoin into diversified long-term investment portfolios diminishes, making it an increasingly attractive option for portfolio managers," Hougan explained. This shift is expected to mirror the adoption rates witnessed in similar funds in Canada and other innovative markets.

「隨著市場的成熟和波動性的持續下降，將比特幣納入多元化長期投資組合的感知風險會降低，這使其成為投資組合經理越來越有吸引力的選擇，」Hougan 解釋道。這一轉變預計將反映加拿大和其他創新市場類似基金的採用率。

3. Explosive Growth in ETF Flows: A New Era of Institutional Adoption

3. ETF 流量爆炸性成長：機構採用的新時代

Since their US launch, spot ETFs have garnered an influx of approximately $12.5 billion in net flows, establishing them as the fastest-growing ETF category in history. Hougan projects that these funds will attract over $200 billion by 2028, driven by broader availability and enhanced due diligence from institutional investors.

自美國推出以來，現貨 ETF 已獲得約 125 億美元的淨流量湧入，使其成為史上成長最快的 ETF 類別。 Hougan 預計，在機構投資者更廣泛的可用性和加強盡職調查的推動下，到 2028 年，這些基金將吸引超過 2000 億美元。

"The trajectory we've observed with gold ETFs, which experienced consistently increasing flows for years after their introduction, provides a solid model for our expectations with Bitcoin ETFs," Hougan said. The anticipation of eventual acceptance by national wirehouses and further institutional endorsement could serve as catalysts for this remarkable growth.

Hougan 表示：“我們觀察到的黃金 ETF 的軌跡，在推出後的幾年裡經歷了持續增長的流量，為我們對比特幣 ETF 的預期提供了可靠的模型。”預計最終會被國家通訊社接受以及進一步的機構認可可能會成為這一顯著增長的催化劑。

4. Central Bank Recognition: Bitcoin's Rise as a Global Reserve

4. 央行認可：比特幣作為全球儲備的崛起

One of the more audacious predictions from Bitwise is the prospect of central banks incorporating Bitcoin into their reserves, drawn to its inherent qualities as non-debt money that offers functional advantages over traditional reserves like gold.

Bitwise 更大膽的預測之一是央行將比特幣納入其儲備的前景，因為比特幣作為非債務貨幣的固有品質比黃金等傳統儲備具有功能優勢。

"In an era where traditional financial systems are increasingly vulnerable to political influences, Bitcoin offers an enticing alternative for central banks seeking to diversify away from fiat currencies susceptible to manipulation by foreign governments," Hougan asserted.

霍根斷言：“在傳統金融體系越來越容易受到政治影響的時代，比特幣為尋求多元化、遠離容易受到外國政府操縱的法定貨幣的央行提供了一個誘人的選擇。”

The strategic significance of being the first mover among central banks could trigger a domino effect, profoundly altering the global financial landscape by shifting towards decentralized assets.

成為央行先驅的戰略意義可能會引發骨牌效應，透過轉向去中心化資產而深刻改變全球金融格局。

5. Bitcoin Price to Soar Beyond $250,000: A New Chapter in Market Capitalization

5. 比特幣價格飆升至25萬美元以上：市值翻開新篇章

The final prediction concerns Bitcoin's price, which Hougan believes will surpass $250,000, propelling its market capitalization to an estimated $5 trillion. This price target is rooted in a confluence of factors, including continued volatility reduction, enhanced regulatory clarity, and broader institutional adoption.

最終的預測涉及比特幣的價格，Hougan 認為比特幣的價格將超過 25 萬美元，從而將其市值推至估計的 5 兆美元。這個價格目標植根於多種因素的綜合作用，包括波動性的持續降低、監管透明度的提高以及更廣泛的機構採用。

"Each halving cycle ushers in a convergence of technological, market, and sociopolitical developments that have historically propelled significant price appreciation. Given the advancements we're observing, a price point of $250,000 is well within the realm of possibility," Hougan noted.

「每個減半週期都會帶來技術、市場和社會政治發展的融合，這些發展在歷史上推動了價格的大幅升值。考慮到我們所觀察到的進步，250,000 美元的價格點完全在可能的範圍內，」Hougan 指出。

At the time of publication, Bitcoin traded at $64,064.

截至本文發佈時，比特幣交易價格為 64,064 美元。