Bitwise预测比特币变革轨迹，减半开启新时代

Bitwise 是一家新兴的比特币 ETF 发行商，它对 2028 年比特币减半之前的加密货币未来做出了大胆预测。这些预测植根于历史趋势和复杂的市场分析，设想了一个以波动性减少、机构采用增加、ETF 爆炸性增长，甚至中央银行可能采用比特币为特征的前景。最终，Bitwise 预计 BTC 的价格将飙升至 25 万美元以上，巩固其作为全球金融体系基石资产的地位。

Bitwise Unveils Bold Predictions for Bitcoin's Future: Halving to Unleash Transformative Era

Bitwise 公布对比特币未来的大胆预测：减半将开启变革时代

New York, March 22, 2023 - Bitwise Asset Management, the fourth-largest spot Bitcoin ETF issuer in the United States, managing assets worth $1.778 billion, has released a series of groundbreaking predictions outlining the transformative trajectory of Bitcoin leading up to the 2028 halving. These projections not only draw upon historical data and trends but also anticipate a profound integration of Bitcoin into the mainstream financial ecosystem.

纽约，2023 年 3 月 22 日 - Bitwise Asset Management，美国第四大现货比特币 ETF 发行商，管理着价值 17.78 亿美元的资产，发布了一系列突破性的预测，概述了比特币在 2028 年减半之前的变革轨迹。这些预测不仅借鉴了历史数据和趋势，还预测了比特币将深入融入主流金融生态系统。

1. Dwindling Volatility: Bitcoin's Path to Maturity

1. 波动性下降：比特币的成熟之路

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, envisions a significant reduction in Bitcoin's volatility, predicting a 50% decrease by the 2028 halving. This forecast stems from the observed historical trend of diminishing volatility, a trend that is expected to accelerate as the composition of Bitcoin's market participants evolves.

Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 预计比特币的波动性将大幅降低，预计到 2028 年减半时将降低 50%。这一预测源于观察到的波动性减弱的历史趋势，随着比特币市场参与者构成的变化，这一趋势预计将加速。

The influx of institutional investors through Bitcoin ETFs has played a pivotal role in stabilizing price fluctuations. Unlike retail investors, who are prone to impulsive reactions to market movements and news events, institutional investors typically employ strategic approaches involving calibrated market entries and exits.

机构投资者通过比特币ETF涌入，在稳定价格波动方面发挥了关键作用。与容易对市场走势和新闻事件做出冲动反应的散户投资者不同，机构投资者通常采用涉及校准市场进入和退出的战略方法。

"The introduction of ETFs has paved the way for a more disciplined approach to Bitcoin investing, which will significantly mitigate the historical volatility associated with this asset class," Hougan asserted.

“ETF 的推出为更严格的比特币投资方式铺平了道路，这将显着减轻与该资产类别相关的历史波动性，”Hougan 断言。

2. Embracing Bitcoin in Target-Date Portfolios

2. 在目标日期投资组合中拥抱比特币

Bitwise anticipates the widespread inclusion of Bitcoin allocations in target-date portfolios, with allocations potentially reaching 5% or more. This prediction stems from the growing familiarity and acceptance of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class among financial advisors. Hougan believes that the current absence of Bitcoin in major target-date funds in the United States is a temporary anomaly.

Bitwise 预计比特币配置将广泛纳入目标日期投资组合，配置可能达到 5% 或更多。这一预测源于财务顾问对比特币作为合法资产类别的日益熟悉和接受。 Hougan认为，目前美国主要目标日期基金中没有比特币是暂时的异常现象。

"As the market matures and volatility continues to decline, the perceived risk of incorporating Bitcoin into diversified long-term investment portfolios diminishes, making it an increasingly attractive option for portfolio managers," Hougan explained. This shift is expected to mirror the adoption rates witnessed in similar funds in Canada and other innovative markets.

“随着市场的成熟和波动性的持续下降，将比特币纳入多元化长期投资组合的感知风险会降低，这使其成为投资组合经理越来越有吸引力的选择，”Hougan 解释道。这一转变预计将反映加拿大和其他创新市场类似基金的采用率。

3. Explosive Growth in ETF Flows: A New Era of Institutional Adoption

3. ETF 流量爆炸式增长：机构采用的新时代

Since their US launch, spot ETFs have garnered an influx of approximately $12.5 billion in net flows, establishing them as the fastest-growing ETF category in history. Hougan projects that these funds will attract over $200 billion by 2028, driven by broader availability and enhanced due diligence from institutional investors.

自在美国推出以来，现货 ETF 已获得约 125 亿美元的净流量涌入，使其成为历史上增长最快的 ETF 类别。 Hougan 预计，在机构投资者更广泛的可用性和加强尽职调查的推动下，到 2028 年，这些基金将吸引超过 2000 亿美元。

"The trajectory we've observed with gold ETFs, which experienced consistently increasing flows for years after their introduction, provides a solid model for our expectations with Bitcoin ETFs," Hougan said. The anticipation of eventual acceptance by national wirehouses and further institutional endorsement could serve as catalysts for this remarkable growth.

Hougan 表示：“我们观察到的黄金 ETF 的轨迹，在推出后的几年里经历了持续增长的流量，为我们对比特币 ETF 的预期提供了可靠的模型。”预计最终会被国家通讯社接受以及进一步的机构认可可能会成为这一显着增长的催化剂。

4. Central Bank Recognition: Bitcoin's Rise as a Global Reserve

4. 央行认可：比特币作为全球储备的崛起

One of the more audacious predictions from Bitwise is the prospect of central banks incorporating Bitcoin into their reserves, drawn to its inherent qualities as non-debt money that offers functional advantages over traditional reserves like gold.

Bitwise 更大胆的预测之一是央行将比特币纳入其储备的前景，因为比特币作为非债务货币的固有品质比黄金等传统储备具有功能优势。

"In an era where traditional financial systems are increasingly vulnerable to political influences, Bitcoin offers an enticing alternative for central banks seeking to diversify away from fiat currencies susceptible to manipulation by foreign governments," Hougan asserted.

霍根断言：“在传统金融体系越来越容易受到政治影响的时代，比特币为寻求多元化、远离容易受到外国政府操纵的法定货币的央行提供了一个诱人的选择。”

The strategic significance of being the first mover among central banks could trigger a domino effect, profoundly altering the global financial landscape by shifting towards decentralized assets.

成为央行先行者的战略意义可能会引发多米诺骨牌效应，通过转向去中心化资产而深刻改变全球金融格局。

5. Bitcoin Price to Soar Beyond $250,000: A New Chapter in Market Capitalization

5. 比特币价格飙升至25万美元以上：市值翻开新篇章

The final prediction concerns Bitcoin's price, which Hougan believes will surpass $250,000, propelling its market capitalization to an estimated $5 trillion. This price target is rooted in a confluence of factors, including continued volatility reduction, enhanced regulatory clarity, and broader institutional adoption.

最终的预测涉及比特币的价格，Hougan 认为比特币的价格将超过 25 万美元，从而将其市值推至估计的 5 万亿美元。这一价格目标植根于多种因素的综合作用，包括波动性的持续降低、监管透明度的提高以及更广泛的机构采用。

"Each halving cycle ushers in a convergence of technological, market, and sociopolitical developments that have historically propelled significant price appreciation. Given the advancements we're observing, a price point of $250,000 is well within the realm of possibility," Hougan noted.

“每个减半周期都会带来技术、市场和社会政治发展的融合，这些发展在历史上推动了价格的大幅升值。考虑到我们所观察到的进步，250,000 美元的价格点完全在可能的范围内，”Hougan 指出。

At the time of publication, Bitcoin traded at $64,064.

截至本文发布时，比特币交易价格为 64,064 美元。