Bitwise 解釋為什麼比特幣 (BTC) 會在 9 月後反彈

擁有超過 40 億美元資產的領先加密貨幣投資公司 Bitwise 的首席投資長在一份報告中表示，比特幣可能會在未來幾個月內出現「大幅反彈」。

Bitcoin (BTC) price showed signs of consolidation this week as traders awaited the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index report.

由於交易者等待即將發布的美國消費者物價指數報告，比特幣（BTC）價格本週顯示出盤整跡象。

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $57,000, marking a significant increase from last Friday’s low of $52,000. Interestingly, BTC’s price action has closely aligned with American stocks. On Monday, the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones both rose, while Tuesday, Sept. 10, saw both indexes waver.

截至發稿時，比特幣交易價格為 57,000 美元，較上週五的低點 52,000 美元大幅上漲。有趣的是，比特幣的價格走勢與美國股市密切相關。週一，納斯達克 100 指數和道瓊斯指數均上漲，而 9 月 10 日週二，這兩個指數均出現波動。

But what does this mean for Bitcoin in the coming months? According to Bitwise, Bitcoin may be poised for a “significant rally.” Here's why.

但這對未來幾個月的比特幣意味著什麼？據 Bitwise 稱，比特幣可能即將迎來「大幅反彈」。原因如下。

In a note, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, a leading crypto investment firm with over $4 billion in assets, outlined three key reasons why Bitcoin could be set for a rally.

擁有超過 40 億美元資產的領先加密貨幣投資公司 Bitwise 的首席投資長在報告中概述了比特幣可能上漲的三個關鍵原因。

First, the study, which analyzed data from 2010 to 2024, found that September was the worst month for Bitcoin, with an average return of minus 4.5%. It was also the worst month for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index, which typically sees a 6% drop.

首先，研究分析了2010年至2024年的數據，發現9月份是比特幣表現最差的月份，平均回報率為-4.5%。這也是以科技股為主的那斯達克指數 100 指數表現最差的一個月，該指數通常會下跌 6%。

However, Hougan also noted that it was typically followed by a rebound. Specifically, October was the best month for Bitcoin, with an average return of 8.5%, while November was the best month for the Nasdaq 100, with an average gain of 6%.

然而，侯根也指出，通常隨後會出現反彈。具體來說，10月是比特幣表現最好的月份，平均漲幅為8.5%，而11月是那斯達克100指數表現最好的月份，平均漲幅為6%。

Second, the Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates in September and deliver two more cuts by the end of the year. Hougan predicts the bank will implement 125 bps worth of cuts by December, which could push risky assets higher.

其次，聯準會預計9月開始降息，並在年底前再降息兩次。 Hougan 預測該銀行將在 12 月之前實施 125 個基點的降息，可能會推高風險資產。

Third, Hougan expects Bitcoin to rebound as the market gains more clarity on the outcome of the general election. Polymarket suggests that Donald Trump has a higher chance of defeating Kamala Harris, although other mainstream polls show the two candidates are quite close and within the margin of error.

第三，Hougan預計，隨著市場對大選結果的了解更加清晰，比特幣將會反彈。 Polymarket 表明唐納德·川普 (Donald Trump) 擊敗卡馬拉·哈里斯 (Kamala Harris) 的機會更大，儘管其他主流民意調查顯示兩位候選人相當接近且在誤差範圍內。

Moreover, despite previous outflows, ETF inflows remained strong. More specifically, Hougan believes that investment advisors are adopting Bitcoin funds faster than “any new ETF in history.”

此外，儘管先前有資金流出，但 ETF 流入依然強勁。更具體地說，Hougan 認為投資顧問採用比特幣基金的速度比「歷史上任何新的 ETF」都要快。

In fact, some of the biggest hedge funds, such as Citadel, Millennium, and Bridgewater Associates, have invested in Bitcoin.

事實上，一些最大的對沖基金，例如 Citadel、Millennium 和 Bridgewater Associates，都已經投資了比特幣。

However, the bullish case for Bitcoin does come with some risks. Notably, Bitcoin is currently on track to form a death cross, as the gap between the 200-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages continues to narrow.

然而，看漲比特幣確實伴隨著一些風險。值得注意的是，隨著 200 天和 50 天指數移動平均線之間的差距繼續縮小，目前比特幣預計將形成死亡交叉。

This indicator is used to identify potential bearish trends and typically occurs when the 50-day EMA falls below the 200-day EMA from above. It has moved from 4% last week to less than 1%.

此指標用於識別潛在的看跌趨勢，通常在 50 日均線從上方跌破 200 日均線時出現。它已從上週的 4% 降至不到 1%。

In most periods, Bitcoin tends to drop sharply after this crossover happens.

在大多數時期，比特幣在這種交叉發生後往往會大幅下跌。