Bitwise 解释为何比特币 (BTC) 将在 9 月后反弹

拥有超过 40 亿美元资产的领先加密货币投资公司 Bitwise 的首席投资官在一份报告中表示，比特币可能会在未来几个月内出现“大幅反弹”。

Bitcoin (BTC) price showed signs of consolidation this week as traders awaited the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index report.

由于交易者等待即将发布的美国消费者价格指数报告，比特币（BTC）价格本周显示出盘整迹象。

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $57,000, marking a significant increase from last Friday’s low of $52,000. Interestingly, BTC’s price action has closely aligned with American stocks. On Monday, the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones both rose, while Tuesday, Sept. 10, saw both indexes waver.

截至发稿时，比特币交易价格为 57,000 美元，较上周五的低点 52,000 美元大幅上涨。有趣的是，比特币的价格走势与美国股市密切相关。周一，纳斯达克 100 指数和道琼斯指数均上涨，而 9 月 10 日周二，这两个指数均出现波动。

But what does this mean for Bitcoin in the coming months? According to Bitwise, Bitcoin may be poised for a “significant rally.” Here's why.

但这对未来几个月的比特币意味着什么？据 Bitwise 称，比特币可能即将迎来“大幅反弹”。原因如下。

In a note, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, a leading crypto investment firm with over $4 billion in assets, outlined three key reasons why Bitcoin could be set for a rally.

拥有超过 40 亿美元资产的领先加密货币投资公司 Bitwise 的首席投资官在一份报告中概述了比特币可能上涨的三个关键原因。

First, the study, which analyzed data from 2010 to 2024, found that September was the worst month for Bitcoin, with an average return of minus 4.5%. It was also the worst month for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index, which typically sees a 6% drop.

首先，该研究分析了2010年至2024年的数据，发现9月份是比特币表现最差的月份，平均回报率为-4.5%。这也是以科技股为主的纳斯达克 100 指数表现最差的一个月，该指数通常会下跌 6%。

However, Hougan also noted that it was typically followed by a rebound. Specifically, October was the best month for Bitcoin, with an average return of 8.5%, while November was the best month for the Nasdaq 100, with an average gain of 6%.

然而，侯根也指出，通常随后会出现反弹。具体来说，10月是比特币表现最好的月份，平均涨幅为8.5%，而11月是纳斯达克100指数表现最好的月份，平均涨幅为6%。

Second, the Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates in September and deliver two more cuts by the end of the year. Hougan predicts the bank will implement 125 bps worth of cuts by December, which could push risky assets higher.

其次，美联储预计将于9月开始降息，并在年底前再降息两次。 Hougan 预测该银行将在 12 月之前实施 125 个基点的降息，这可能会推高风险资产。

Third, Hougan expects Bitcoin to rebound as the market gains more clarity on the outcome of the general election. Polymarket suggests that Donald Trump has a higher chance of defeating Kamala Harris, although other mainstream polls show the two candidates are quite close and within the margin of error.

第三，Hougan预计，随着市场对大选结果的了解更加清晰，比特币将会反弹。 Polymarket 表明唐纳德·特朗普击败卡马拉·哈里斯的机会更高，尽管其他主流民意调查显示两位候选人相当接近且在误差范围内。

Moreover, despite previous outflows, ETF inflows remained strong. More specifically, Hougan believes that investment advisors are adopting Bitcoin funds faster than “any new ETF in history.”

此外，尽管此前有资金流出，但 ETF 流入依然强劲。更具体地说，Hougan 认为投资顾问采用比特币基金的速度比“历史上任何新的 ETF”都要快。

In fact, some of the biggest hedge funds, such as Citadel, Millennium, and Bridgewater Associates, have invested in Bitcoin.

事实上，一些最大的对冲基金，例如 Citadel、Millennium 和 Bridgewater Associates，都已经投资了比特币。

However, the bullish case for Bitcoin does come with some risks. Notably, Bitcoin is currently on track to form a death cross, as the gap between the 200-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages continues to narrow.

然而，看涨比特币确实伴随着一些风险。值得注意的是，随着 200 天和 50 天指数移动平均线之间的差距继续缩小，比特币目前有望形成死亡交叉。

This indicator is used to identify potential bearish trends and typically occurs when the 50-day EMA falls below the 200-day EMA from above. It has moved from 4% last week to less than 1%.

该指标用于识别潜在的看跌趋势，通常在 50 日均线从上方跌破 200 日均线时出现。它已从上周的 4% 降至不到 1%。

In most periods, Bitcoin tends to drop sharply after this crossover happens.

在大多数时期，比特币在这种交叉发生后往往会大幅下跌。