BitMEX 創辦人警告減半前後比特幣價格可能會下跌

BitMEX Founder Arthur Hayes shared his opinion on Bitcoin’s price on the eve of its halving.

BitMEX 創辦人 Arthur Hayes 在比特幣減半前夕分享了他對比特幣價格的看法。

In a recent post, Hayes questioned whether Bitcoin (BTC) could hold its all-time high as it approaches halving.

在最近的一篇文章中，海耶斯質疑比特幣（BTC）在接近減半時能否維持歷史最高水準。

In his recent forecast, Hayes expects BTC prices to decline before and after the halving event, suggesting that during this period, dollar liquidity will be limited, contributing to increased pressure from sellers of crypto assets.

海耶斯在最近的預測中預計，比特幣價格在減半事件前後都會下跌，這表明在此期間，美元流動性將受到限制，從而導致加密資產賣家的壓力增加。

The BitMEX founder also predicts that after May 1, the quantitative tightening (QT) cycle will ease, returning to a standard rhythm in line with U.S. inflation trends.

BitMEX 創辦人也預測，5 月 1 日之後，量化緊縮（QT）週期將放緩，恢復到與美國通膨趨勢一致的標準節奏。

“The Bitcoin block reward is forecast to halve on April 20. This is seen as a bullish catalyst for crypto markets. I agree that it will pump prices in the medium term; however, the price action directly before and after could be negative.”

「比特幣區塊獎勵預計將於 4 月 20 日減半。這被視為加密市場的看漲催化劑。我同意它會在中期推高價格；然而，前後的價格走勢可能是負面的。”

Arthur Hayes, BitMEX founder

As a result, Hayes has decided to hold off on trading until May, when the Federal Reserve is expected to discuss a potential reduction in its QT program.

BitMEX 創辦人 Arthur Hayes 因此，Hayes 決定將交易推遲到 5 月份，屆時聯準會預計將討論可能削減其 QT 計畫的問題。

On April 8, Bitcoin rose above $72,000 for the first time since mid-March. The impetus for the growth of the leading cryptocurrency is the upcoming Bitcoin halving, after which the block reward will be halved to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC.

4 月 8 日，比特幣自 3 月中旬以來首次升至 72,000 美元以上。領先加密貨幣成長的動力是即將到來的比特幣減半，之後區塊獎勵將從 6.25 BTC 減半至 3.125 BTC。

In contrast to Hayes, many experts expect an increase in Bitcoin’s value. Skybridge Capital CEO Anthony Scaramucci believes that the BTC rate in this “bullish cycle” will reach $170,000, and in the future, Bitcoin’s capitalization will be half of that of gold.

與海耶斯相反，許多專家預計比特幣的價值會增加。 Skybridge Capital執行長Anthony Scaramucci認為，本次「牛市週期」的BTC匯率將達到17萬美元，未來，比特幣的市值將是黃金的一半。

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