BitMEX 创始人警告减半前后比特币价格可能下跌

BitMEX Founder Arthur Hayes shared his opinion on Bitcoin’s price on the eve of its halving.

BitMEX 创始人 Arthur Hayes 在比特币减半前夕分享了他对比特币价格的看法。

In a recent post, Hayes questioned whether Bitcoin (BTC) could hold its all-time high as it approaches halving.

在最近的一篇文章中，海耶斯质疑比特币（BTC）在接近减半时能否保持历史最高水平。

In his recent forecast, Hayes expects BTC prices to decline before and after the halving event, suggesting that during this period, dollar liquidity will be limited, contributing to increased pressure from sellers of crypto assets.

海耶斯在最近的预测中预计，比特币价格在减半事件前后都会下跌，这表明在此期间，美元流动性将受到限制，从而导致加密资产卖家的压力加大。

The BitMEX founder also predicts that after May 1, the quantitative tightening (QT) cycle will ease, returning to a standard rhythm in line with U.S. inflation trends.

BitMEX 创始人还预测，5 月 1 日之后，量化紧缩（QT）周期将放缓，恢复到与美国通胀趋势一致的标准节奏。

“The Bitcoin block reward is forecast to halve on April 20. This is seen as a bullish catalyst for crypto markets. I agree that it will pump prices in the medium term; however, the price action directly before and after could be negative.”

“比特币区块奖励预计将于 4 月 20 日减半。这被视为加密市场的看涨催化剂。我同意它会在中期推高价格；然而，前后的价格走势可能是负面的。”

Arthur Hayes, BitMEX founder

As a result, Hayes has decided to hold off on trading until May, when the Federal Reserve is expected to discuss a potential reduction in its QT program.

BitMEX 创始人 Arthur Hayes 因此，Hayes 决定将交易推迟到 5 月份，届时美联储预计将讨论可能削减其 QT 计划的问题。

On April 8, Bitcoin rose above $72,000 for the first time since mid-March. The impetus for the growth of the leading cryptocurrency is the upcoming Bitcoin halving, after which the block reward will be halved to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC.

4 月 8 日，比特币自 3 月中旬以来首次升至 72,000 美元以上。领先加密货币增长的动力是即将到来的比特币减半，之后区块奖励将从 6.25 BTC 减半至 3.125 BTC。

In contrast to Hayes, many experts expect an increase in Bitcoin’s value. Skybridge Capital CEO Anthony Scaramucci believes that the BTC rate in this “bullish cycle” will reach $170,000, and in the future, Bitcoin’s capitalization will be half of that of gold.

与海耶斯相反，许多专家预计比特币的价值会增加。 Skybridge Capital首席执行官Anthony Scaramucci认为，本次“牛市周期”中的BTC汇率将达到17万美元，未来，比特币的市值将是黄金的一半。

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