Bitfinex 報告分析比特幣的反彈和潛在的局部底部

加密貨幣交易所 Bitfinex 對加密貨幣市場進行了深入分析，重點關注比特幣近期的復甦及其對未來趨勢的影響

Crypto exchange Bitfinex has analyzed several key metrics to assess the possibility of bitcoin approaching a local bottom in its latest Alpha report. The report examines the recent recovery in BTC, which surged nearly 28% from its recent low of $49,000, recovering above the critical $60,000 mark after a sharp sell-off in August.

加密貨幣交易所 Bitfinex 在其最新的 Alpha 報告中分析了幾個關鍵指標，以評估比特幣接近局部底部的可能性。該報告研究了 BTC 近期的復甦情況，該比特幣從 49,000 美元的近期低點飆升了近 28%，在 8 月大幅拋售後恢復至 60,000 美元的關鍵關口之上。

The analysis highlights a significant rebound in bitcoin, which began after hitting a two-month low on Monday. BTC/USD surged nearly 28% from its recent low of $49,000, recovering above the critical $60,000 mark. This recovery occurred following a sharp sell-off in August, sparked by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) recent interest rate hike of 75 basis points.

該分析強調了比特幣在周一觸及兩個月低點後開始大幅反彈。 BTC/美元從近期低點 49,000 美元飆升近 28%，恢復至 60,000 美元關鍵關口之上。此次復甦是在聯準會 (Fed) 最近升息 75 個基點引發 8 月大幅拋售之後出現的。

After rising to a high of $64,000 on Monday, BTC/USD dropped sharply on Tuesday morning, falling below the $60,000 level once again. However, the pair quickly recovered later in the day, surging past the $62,000 resistance level.

在周一升至 64,000 美元高點後，BTC/USD 週二早晨大幅下跌，再次跌破 60,000 美元關口。然而，該貨幣對在當天晚些時候迅速恢復，飆升至 62,000 美元的阻力位。

By Wednesday morning, BTC/USD had attained a 24-hour peak of $62,440. The world’s leading cryptocurrency was last trading up by 2.46% over the past 24 hours at a price of $62,300.

截至週三上午，BTC/USD 已達到 62,440 美元的 24 小時高峰。全球領先的加密貨幣最新交易價格在過去 24 小時內上漲 2.46%，價格為 62,300 美元。

Despite bitcoin’s recent recovery, several analysts remain skeptical about the possibility of a sustained bull run. One analysis by crypto exchange Bitfinex has examined several key metrics to assess whether BTC may be approaching a local bottom.

儘管比特幣最近有所復甦，但一些分析師仍然對持續牛市的可能性持懷疑態度。加密貨幣交易所 Bitfinex 的一項分析檢視了幾個關鍵指標，以評估 BTC 是否可能接近局部底部。

According to Bitfinex, the Mayer Multiple, which is a technical analysis (TA) indicator used to determine whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued, dropped to 0.88, a level not seen since the FTX collapse. This indicator is calculated by dividing the asset’s price by its 200-day moving average (MA) and then multiplying the quotient by the square root of 365, the number of days in a year.

據 Bitfinex 稱，用於確定資產是否被高估或低估的技術分析 (TA) 指標 Mayer Multiple 已跌至 0.88，這是自 FTX 崩盤以來未曾見過的水平。此指標的計算方法是將資產價格除以 200 天移動平均線 (MA)，然後將商數乘以 365（一年中的天數）的平方根。

A Mayer Multiple of 1 or less typically indicates that an asset is undervalued, while a multiple greater than 2.4 generally suggests that the asset is overvalued. However, some traders believe that a multiple below 0.9 can also signal that an asset is nearing a bottom.

梅耶倍數為 1 或以下通常表示資產被低估，而倍數大於 2.4 通常表示資產被高估。然而，一些交易者認為，低於 0.9 的倍數也可能表明資產已接近底部。

The report also highlights the high levels of unrealized losses among short-term bitcoin investors, which are the largest since 2022. This metric is calculated by multiplying the realized price of bitcoin by the number of coins held by short-term investors, which are defined as those who have held their coins for less than 155 days, and then dividing the product by the total market capitalization of bitcoin.

該報告還強調了短期比特幣投資者未實現損失的高水平，這是自2022 年以來最大的。 ，定義為持有代幣時間少於 155 天的人，然後將乘積除以比特幣總市值。

The resulting ratio, known as the Short-Term Holder MVRV Multiple, shows that short-term bitcoin investors are currently sitting on unrealized losses of about 40%. This is significantly higher than the breakeven point of 0%, which indicates that short-term investors are, on average, underwater.

由此產生的比率（稱為短期持有者 MVRV 倍數）表明，短期比特幣投資者目前面臨約 40% 的未實現損失。這明顯高於 0% 的損益平衡點，這表明短期投資者平均處於水下。

According to Bitfinex, the last time short-term bitcoin investors experienced such deep unrealized losses was in 2022, during the bear market that followed the collapse of several major crypto firms, including Three Arrows Capital and FTX.

據 Bitfinex 稱，短期比特幣投資者上一次經歷如此嚴重的未實現損失是在 2022 年，當時是三箭資本 (Three Arrows Capital) 和 FTX 等幾家主要加密貨幣公司倒閉後的熊市期間。

The analysis concludes that these metrics, together with the technical analysis, indicate a deep bearish sentiment and stress among short-term investors, which usually occurs at local bottoms.

分析得出的結論是，這些指標與技術分析一起表明短期投資者存在深刻的看跌情緒和壓力，這種情況通常發生在局部底部。