Bitfinex 报告分析比特币的反弹和潜在的局部底部

加密货币交易所 Bitfinex 对加密货币市场进行了深入分析，重点关注比特币近期的复苏及其对未来趋势的影响

Crypto exchange Bitfinex has analyzed several key metrics to assess the possibility of bitcoin approaching a local bottom in its latest Alpha report. The report examines the recent recovery in BTC, which surged nearly 28% from its recent low of $49,000, recovering above the critical $60,000 mark after a sharp sell-off in August.

加密货币交易所 Bitfinex 在其最新的 Alpha 报告中分析了几个关键指标，以评估比特币接近局部底部的可能性。该报告研究了 BTC 近期的复苏情况，该比特币从 49,000 美元的近期低点飙升了近 28%，在 8 月份大幅抛售后恢复至 60,000 美元的关键关口之上。

The analysis highlights a significant rebound in bitcoin, which began after hitting a two-month low on Monday. BTC/USD surged nearly 28% from its recent low of $49,000, recovering above the critical $60,000 mark. This recovery occurred following a sharp sell-off in August, sparked by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) recent interest rate hike of 75 basis points.

该分析强调了比特币在周一触及两个月低点后开始大幅反弹。 BTC/美元从近期低点 49,000 美元飙升近 28%，恢复至 60,000 美元关键关口之上。此次复苏是在美联储 (Fed) 最近加息 75 个基点引发 8 月份大幅抛售之后出现的。

After rising to a high of $64,000 on Monday, BTC/USD dropped sharply on Tuesday morning, falling below the $60,000 level once again. However, the pair quickly recovered later in the day, surging past the $62,000 resistance level.

在周一升至 64,000 美元高点后，BTC/USD 周二早间大幅下跌，再次跌破 60,000 美元关口。然而，该货币对在当天晚些时候迅速恢复，飙升至 62,000 美元的阻力位。

By Wednesday morning, BTC/USD had attained a 24-hour peak of $62,440. The world’s leading cryptocurrency was last trading up by 2.46% over the past 24 hours at a price of $62,300.

截至周三上午，BTC/USD 已达到 62,440 美元的 24 小时峰值。全球领先的加密货币最新交易价格在过去 24 小时内上涨 2.46%，价格为 62,300 美元。

Despite bitcoin’s recent recovery, several analysts remain skeptical about the possibility of a sustained bull run. One analysis by crypto exchange Bitfinex has examined several key metrics to assess whether BTC may be approaching a local bottom.

尽管比特币最近有所复苏，但一些分析师仍然对持续牛市的可能性持怀疑态度。加密货币交易所 Bitfinex 的一项分析检查了几个关键指标，以评估 BTC 是否可能接近局部底部。

According to Bitfinex, the Mayer Multiple, which is a technical analysis (TA) indicator used to determine whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued, dropped to 0.88, a level not seen since the FTX collapse. This indicator is calculated by dividing the asset’s price by its 200-day moving average (MA) and then multiplying the quotient by the square root of 365, the number of days in a year.

据 Bitfinex 称，用于确定资产是否被高估或低估的技术分析 (TA) 指标 Mayer Multiple 已跌至 0.88，这是自 FTX 崩盘以来未曾见过的水平。该指标的计算方法是将资产价格除以 200 天移动平均线 (MA)，然后将商乘以 365（一年中的天数）的平方根。

A Mayer Multiple of 1 or less typically indicates that an asset is undervalued, while a multiple greater than 2.4 generally suggests that the asset is overvalued. However, some traders believe that a multiple below 0.9 can also signal that an asset is nearing a bottom.

梅耶倍数为 1 或以下通常表明资产被低估，而倍数大于 2.4 通常表明资产被高估。然而，一些交易者认为，低于 0.9 的倍数也可能表明资产已接近底部。

The report also highlights the high levels of unrealized losses among short-term bitcoin investors, which are the largest since 2022. This metric is calculated by multiplying the realized price of bitcoin by the number of coins held by short-term investors, which are defined as those who have held their coins for less than 155 days, and then dividing the product by the total market capitalization of bitcoin.

该报告还强调了短期比特币投资者未实现损失的高水平，这是自 2022 年以来最大的。该指标的计算方法是将比特币的已实现价格乘以短期投资者持有的代币数量，定义为持有代币时间少于 155 天的人，然后将乘积除以比特币总市值。

The resulting ratio, known as the Short-Term Holder MVRV Multiple, shows that short-term bitcoin investors are currently sitting on unrealized losses of about 40%. This is significantly higher than the breakeven point of 0%, which indicates that short-term investors are, on average, underwater.

由此产生的比率（称为短期持有者 MVRV 倍数）表明，短期比特币投资者目前面临约 40% 的未实现损失。这明显高于 0% 的盈亏平衡点，这表明短期投资者平均处于水下。

According to Bitfinex, the last time short-term bitcoin investors experienced such deep unrealized losses was in 2022, during the bear market that followed the collapse of several major crypto firms, including Three Arrows Capital and FTX.

据 Bitfinex 称，短期比特币投资者上一次经历如此严重的未实现损失是在 2022 年，当时是三箭资本 (Three Arrows Capital) 和 FTX 等几家主要加密货币公司倒闭后的熊市期间。

The analysis concludes that these metrics, together with the technical analysis, indicate a deep bearish sentiment and stress among short-term investors, which usually occurs at local bottoms.

分析得出的结论是，这些指标与技术分析一起表明短期投资者存在深刻的看跌情绪和压力，这种情况通常发生在局部底部。