比特幣趨勢預測，加密貨幣的退出策略

本文是我最近的廣泛分析（股票市場、利率、加密貨幣和通貨膨脹紅色藥丸）的第二部分（共兩部分）

This article is part 2 of 2 of my recent extensive analysis - Stock Market, Interest Rates, Crypto's and the Inflation Red Pill which was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

本文是我最近的廣泛分析（股票市場、利率、加密貨幣和通貨膨脹紅色藥丸）的第二部分（共兩部分），該分析首先提供給支持我工作的顧客。因此，要立即首次訪問我的所有分析和趨勢預測，請考慮以每月7 美元的價格支持我的工作，成為贊助人，現在將其鎖定在7 美元，然後新註冊者的價格將升至每月10 美元。 https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat。

Contents

內容

Stock Market Trend Forecast Swings Analysis AI Stocks Portfolio TESLA Why US Interest Rates are a Nothing Burger Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun Time to take the RED Pill Crypto Correction

股市趨勢預測 波動分析 人工智慧股票投資組合 特斯拉 為什麼美國利率沒什麼意義 股票牛市確鑿證據 是時候採取紅色藥丸加密貨幣修正了

Whilst the S&P continues to grind higher the same cannot be said for the crypto markets over the past few days. Bitcoin hit $74k and then did an abrupt U-turn by dropping to my $61k target as per my last analysis.

儘管標準普爾指數繼續走高，但過去幾天加密市場的情況並不樂觀。比特幣觸及 7.4 萬美元，然後突然掉頭，跌至我上次分析的 61,000 美元目標。

BTC Targets - Rally to $75k and then corrects to $61k, check, check, what's next? the primary big picture is to target a trend to $118k.

BTC 目標 - 反彈至 75,000 美元，然後修正至 61,000 美元，檢查，檢查，下一步是什麼？主要的大局目標是將趨勢目標定為 118,000 美元。

In terms of current state then the crypto's don't look quite done yet to the downside so the next target for BTC is $56k to kill more leveraged longs. One thing is for sure there are a lot of over leveraged traders out there who are getting their accounts nukes, this is how the exchanges make their money by wiping out leveraged longs and shorts!

就目前的狀態而言，加密貨幣的下行趨勢似乎還沒有完全結束，因此 BTC 的下一個目標是 56,000 美元，以消除更多的槓桿多頭。有一件事是肯定的，有很多過度槓桿的交易者正在獲得他們的帳戶核武器，這就是交易所通過消除槓桿多頭和空頭來賺錢的方式！

As I often warn, do NOT use LEVERAGE!

正如我經常警告的那樣，不要使用槓桿！

What am I doing? Accumulating more BTC and ALT's as they drop.

我在做什麼？隨著 BTC 和 ALT 的下跌而累積更多。

Crypto's now total about 8% of my portfolio after heavy selling of MSTR down to 11% of my peak position. Other selling was in Solana and AVAX and limited selling of BTC when it popped over $72k. that I am now re-accumulating having increased my stake in MSTR to 20% on Tuesdays drop below $1300, with heavier buying set for around $1000 and below.

在大量拋售 MSTR 後，加密貨幣現在占我投資組合的 8% 左右，降至我最高部位的 11%。其他拋售包括 Solana 和 AVAX，以及當 BTC 突破 7.2 萬美元時的有限拋售。我現在正在重新增持，週二我將 MSTR 的股份增至 20%，價格跌至 1300 美元以下，而在 1000 美元左右及以下的價格將出現大量買盤。

Bitcoin Trend Forecast

比特幣趨勢預測

The bottom line is that Bitcoin continues to target a trend to above $100k where my base case is for Bitcoin to trade to $134k, where the only change to my expectations is for the target to be achieved this year, likely during October 2024. so much earlier than anyone was expecting 6 months ago due to the effect of the ETF locusts devouring bitcorn on a daily basis.

最重要的是，比特幣繼續以超過10 萬美元的趨勢為目標，我的基本情況是比特幣交易至13.4 萬美元，我的預期的唯一變化是今年實現目標，可能在2024 年10 月期間實現。

Bitcoin Trend forecast - Last Chance to Get on Board the Bitcoin Crypto Gravy Train - Choo Choo!

比特幣趨勢預測 - 搭乘比特幣加密貨幣列車的最後機會 - Choo Choo！

So here's my Bitcoin gift (trend forecast) that on the current price of $27k, Bitcoin will at least near X4 to $98k and likely a lot more than that, given that there will soon be a flood of Bitcoin ETF's hovering up limited supply of the NSA's, I mean Satoshi Nakamoto's crypto baby.

因此，這是我的比特幣禮物（趨勢預測），以當前27,000 美元的價格計算，比特幣將至少接近X4 至98,000 美元，而且可能遠不止於此，因為很快就會有大量比特幣ETF 在有限的供應中徘徊NSA 的，我指的是中本聰的加密寶貝。

Meanwhile Michael Saylor is engaged in Financial Voodoo. as what usually happens when a company prints more shares i.e. dilutes existing shareholders is for the stock price to FALL, which we got a taste of on Tuesday and likely targets a trend to under $1000 should the crypto correction continue.

與此同時，邁克爾·塞勒 (Michael Saylor) 正在從事金融巫術。因為當一家公司印製更多股票（即稀釋現有股東）時，通常會發生股價下跌的情況，我們在周二就已經嚐到了這種情況，如果加密貨幣修正繼續下去，股價可能會跌至1000美元以下。

Bull Market Tops

牛市頂部

Here's another little study into market dynamics. that shows when markets put their tops in during the 2021 bull market as a rough guide of what to expect for the current bull markets.

這是另一項關於市場動態的小研究。該圖顯示了 2021 年牛市期間市場何時見頂，作為當前牛市預期的粗略指南。

Firstly I doubt we will get the twin tops pattern that we got during 2021 that fooled everyone into thinking BTC $100k was just around the corner. Nevertheless what happened during 2021 will likely rhyme for this bull market.

首先，我懷疑我們是否會出現 2021 年出現的雙頂模式，這種模式欺騙了所有人，讓他們認為 BTC 10 萬美元即將到來。儘管如此，2021 年發生的事情可能會與本輪牛市押韻。

The key thing that stands out, which I had already pointed out before is that MSTR will be the first to top! So a big warning sign that the end is neigh is when BTC goes up and MSTR goes down!

最重要的是，我之前已經指出過，MSTR 將是第一個登頂的！因此，當 BTC 上漲而 MSTR 下跌時，一個重大的警告信號表明末日即將來臨！

Secondly after Bitcoin tops there will be short burst of alt-season, maybe spanning a few weeks when the degenerative gamblers sell bitcoin to pump alt coins to the moon in a final attempt to make profits,

其次，在比特幣見頂之後，將會出現短暫的山寨幣季節，可能會持續幾週，屆時墮落的賭徒會出售比特幣，將山寨幣注入月球，以最後一次獲利的嘗試，

Thirdly the stock market will top some months AFTER the bitcoin and crypto market tops. Which makes sense, given that money will flow out of crypto's and into stocks and probably housing as all those who managed to exit he crypto mania will plow their gains into other assets such as stocks and housing given that crypto winter follows the bull market.

第三，在比特幣和加密貨幣市場見頂後幾個月，股市將見頂。這是有道理的，因為資金將從加密貨幣流出，流入股票，甚至可能流入住房，因為所有設法擺脫加密貨幣狂熱的人都會將收益投入股票和住房等其他資產，因為牛市之後是加密貨幣冬天。

So MSTR tops first, then Bitcoin, then Alt coins and then some months later the S&P.

因此，MSTR 首先登頂，然後是比特幣，然後是 Alt 幣，幾個月後是標準普爾指數。

As for the ETF's narrative, folks have somehow forgotten that ETF investors can also SELL their ETF's! i,e. take profits. It

至於 ETF 的敘述，人們不知何故忘記了 ETF 投資人也可以賣掉他們的 ETF！ IE。獲利。它