比特币趋势预测，加密货币的退出策略

本文是我最近的广泛分析（股票市场、利率、加密货币和通货膨胀红色药丸）的第二部分（共两部分）

This article is part 2 of 2 of my recent extensive analysis - Stock Market, Interest Rates, Crypto's and the Inflation Red Pill which was first made available to patrons who support my work. So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $7 per month, lock it in now at $7 before next rises to $10 per month for new sign-ups. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.

本文是我最近的广泛分析（股票市场、利率、加密货币和通货膨胀红色药丸）的第二部分（共两部分），该分析首先提供给支持我工作的顾客。因此，要立即首次访问我的所有分析和趋势预测，请考虑以每月 7 美元的价格支持我的工作，成为赞助人，现在将其锁定在 7 美元，然后新注册者的价格将升至每月 10 美元。 https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat。

Contents

内容

Stock Market Trend Forecast Swings Analysis AI Stocks Portfolio TESLA Why US Interest Rates are a Nothing Burger Stocks Bull Market Smoking Gun Time to take the RED Pill Crypto Correction

股市趋势预测 波动分析 人工智能股票投资组合 特斯拉 为什么美国利率没什么意义 股票牛市确凿证据 是时候采取红色药丸加密货币修正了

Whilst the S&P continues to grind higher the same cannot be said for the crypto markets over the past few days. Bitcoin hit $74k and then did an abrupt U-turn by dropping to my $61k target as per my last analysis.

尽管标准普尔指数继续走高，但过去几天加密市场的情况却不容乐观。比特币触及 7.4 万美元，然后突然掉头，跌至我上次分析的 6.1 万美元目标。

BTC Targets - Rally to $75k and then corrects to $61k, check, check, what's next? the primary big picture is to target a trend to $118k.

BTC 目标 - 反弹至 75,000 美元，然后修正至 61,000 美元，检查，检查，下一步是什么？主要的大局目标是将趋势目标定为 118,000 美元。

In terms of current state then the crypto's don't look quite done yet to the downside so the next target for BTC is $56k to kill more leveraged longs. One thing is for sure there are a lot of over leveraged traders out there who are getting their accounts nukes, this is how the exchanges make their money by wiping out leveraged longs and shorts!

就目前的状态而言，加密货币的下行趋势似乎还没有完全结束，因此 BTC 的下一个目标是 5.6 万美元，以消除更多的杠杆多头。有一件事是肯定的，有很多过度杠杆的交易者正在获得他们的账户核武器，这就是交易所通过消除杠杆多头和空头来赚钱的方式！

As I often warn, do NOT use LEVERAGE!

正如我经常警告的那样，不要使用杠杆！

What am I doing? Accumulating more BTC and ALT's as they drop.

我在做什么？随着 BTC 和 ALT 的下跌而积累更多。

Crypto's now total about 8% of my portfolio after heavy selling of MSTR down to 11% of my peak position. Other selling was in Solana and AVAX and limited selling of BTC when it popped over $72k. that I am now re-accumulating having increased my stake in MSTR to 20% on Tuesdays drop below $1300, with heavier buying set for around $1000 and below.

在大量抛售 MSTR 后，加密货币现在占我投资组合的 8% 左右，降至我最高仓位的 11%。其他抛售包括 Solana 和 AVAX，以及当 BTC 突破 7.2 万美元时的有限抛售。我现在正在重新增持，周二我将 MSTR 的股份增至 20%，价格跌至 1300 美元以下，而在 1000 美元左右及以下的价格将出现大量买盘。

Bitcoin Trend Forecast

比特币趋势预测

The bottom line is that Bitcoin continues to target a trend to above $100k where my base case is for Bitcoin to trade to $134k, where the only change to my expectations is for the target to be achieved this year, likely during October 2024. so much earlier than anyone was expecting 6 months ago due to the effect of the ETF locusts devouring bitcorn on a daily basis.

最重要的是，比特币继续以超过 10 万美元的趋势为目标，我的基本情况是比特币交易至 13.4 万美元，我的预期的唯一变化是今年实现目标，可能在 2024 年 10 月期间实现。由于 ETF 蝗虫每天吞噬比特玉米的影响，比任何人 6 个月前预期的要早得多。

Bitcoin Trend forecast - Last Chance to Get on Board the Bitcoin Crypto Gravy Train - Choo Choo!

比特币趋势预测 - 搭乘比特币加密货币列车的最后机会 - Choo Choo！

So here's my Bitcoin gift (trend forecast) that on the current price of $27k, Bitcoin will at least near X4 to $98k and likely a lot more than that, given that there will soon be a flood of Bitcoin ETF's hovering up limited supply of the NSA's, I mean Satoshi Nakamoto's crypto baby.

因此，这是我的比特币礼物（趋势预测），以当前 27,000 美元的价格计算，比特币将至少接近 X4 至 98,000 美元，而且可能远不止于此，因为很快就会有大量比特币 ETF 在有限的供应中徘徊NSA 的，我指的是中本聪的加密宝贝。

Meanwhile Michael Saylor is engaged in Financial Voodoo. as what usually happens when a company prints more shares i.e. dilutes existing shareholders is for the stock price to FALL, which we got a taste of on Tuesday and likely targets a trend to under $1000 should the crypto correction continue.

与此同时，迈克尔·塞勒 (Michael Saylor) 正在从事金融巫术。因为当一家公司印制更多股票（即稀释现有股东）时，通常会发生股价下跌的情况，我们在周二就已经尝到了这种情况，如果加密货币修正继续下去，股价可能会跌至 1000 美元以下。

Bull Market Tops

牛市顶部

Here's another little study into market dynamics. that shows when markets put their tops in during the 2021 bull market as a rough guide of what to expect for the current bull markets.

这是另一项关于市场动态的小研究。该图显示了 2021 年牛市期间市场何时见顶，作为当前牛市预期的粗略指南。

Firstly I doubt we will get the twin tops pattern that we got during 2021 that fooled everyone into thinking BTC $100k was just around the corner. Nevertheless what happened during 2021 will likely rhyme for this bull market.

首先，我怀疑我们是否会出现 2021 年出现的双顶模式，这种模式欺骗了所有人，让他们认为 BTC 10 万美元即将到来。尽管如此，2021 年发生的事情可能会与本​​轮牛市押韵。

The key thing that stands out, which I had already pointed out before is that MSTR will be the first to top! So a big warning sign that the end is neigh is when BTC goes up and MSTR goes down!

最重要的是，我之前已经指出过，MSTR 将是第一个登顶的！因此，当 BTC 上涨而 MSTR 下跌时，一个重大的警告信号表明末日即将来临！

Secondly after Bitcoin tops there will be short burst of alt-season, maybe spanning a few weeks when the degenerative gamblers sell bitcoin to pump alt coins to the moon in a final attempt to make profits,

其次，在比特币见顶之后，将会出现短暂的山寨币季节，可能会持续几周，届时堕落的赌徒会出售比特币，将山寨币注入月球，以最后一次获利的尝试，

Thirdly the stock market will top some months AFTER the bitcoin and crypto market tops. Which makes sense, given that money will flow out of crypto's and into stocks and probably housing as all those who managed to exit he crypto mania will plow their gains into other assets such as stocks and housing given that crypto winter follows the bull market.

第三，在比特币和加密货币市场见顶后几个月，股市将见顶。这是有道理的，因为资金将从加密货币流出，流入股票，甚至可能流入住房，因为所有设法摆脱加密货币狂热的人都会将收益投入股票和住房等其他资产，因为牛市之后是加密货币冬天。

So MSTR tops first, then Bitcoin, then Alt coins and then some months later the S&P.

因此，MSTR 首先登顶，然后是比特币，然后是 Alt 币，几个月后是标准普尔指数。

As for the ETF's narrative, folks have somehow forgotten that ETF investors can also SELL their ETF's! i,e. take profits. It

至于 ETF 的叙述，人们不知何故忘记了 ETF 投资者也可以出售他们的 ETF！ IE。获利。它