比特幣的長期持有人對最近的價格行動相對可以，短期參與者開始感受到熱量

比特幣最近的價格行動給特定的一組投資者帶來了重大壓力。長期持有人看起來比特幣最近的價格動作相對好

Bitcoin’s recent price action has put significant stress on a particular group of investors. Long-term holders are looking relatively okay with Bitcoin’s recent price action, short-term participants, on the other hand, are starting to feel the heat.

比特幣最近的價格行動給特定的一組投資者帶來了重大壓力。長期持有人看起來比特幣最近的價格動作相對好，另一方面，短期參與者開始感受到熱量。

Market data now suggests that this cohort may be nearing a point of capitulation, but the bigger picture reveals a more complex story where short-term holders can still hang on.

現在的市場數據表明，這個隊列可能接近一個投降點，但是更大的情況揭示了一個更複雜的故事，短期持有人仍然可以堅持下去。

Short-Term Holders Face Losses But Stay Within Limits

短期持有人面臨損失，但保持範圍

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs) have incurred realized losses of $7 billion over the past 30 days. Short-term holders are addresses who have held BTC for less than 155 days. This trend is noted through data from on-chain analytics platform Glassnode, which pointed out that the run of losses marks the most prolonged loss event of the current market cycle.

鏈上的數據表明，比特幣的短期持有人（STH）在過去30天內已經實現了70億美元的損失。短期持有人是持有BTC不到155天的地址。通過鏈分析平台玻璃節點的數據指出，這種趨勢是指出損失的運行標誌著當前市場週期中最長時間的損失事件。

In addition to realized losses, unrealized losses have intensified, pushing many STH-held coins underwater. These losses are nearing the +2σ threshold, which is a level that has historically pointed to an increased risk of capitulation.

除了實現的損失外，未實現的損失也加劇了，推動了許多STH控制的硬幣。這些損失接近 +2σ閾值，這在歷史上表明投降風險增加。

Image From X: Glassnode

X的圖像：玻璃節

Despite the mounting capitulation risk, history shows that short-term Bitcoin holders are not in the worst position they could be in. The current figures remain well below the $19.8 billion and $20.7 billion loss spikes witnessed during the 2021–2022 crash.

儘管有越來越多的投降風險，但歷史表明，短期比特幣持有人並不處於最糟糕的位置。目前的數字仍低於2021 - 2022年崩潰期間見證的198億美元和207億美元的損失峰值。

Image From X: Glassnode

X的圖像：玻璃節

Although the losses are significant, they are still aligned with patterns seen in the middle of previous corrections during bull markets. This relates to a technical outlook from crypto analyst PlanB that Bitcoin is still in the middle of its bullish run.

儘管損失很大，但它們仍然與牛市以前更正的中間情況相符。這與Crypto Analyst Planb的技術前景有關，比特幣仍處於看漲的中間。

Bitcoin Bull Score Plunges, ETF Outflows Pressure Sentiment

比特幣公牛得分暴跌，ETF流出壓力情緒

Although Bitcoin might still be mid-cycle, sentiment indicators paint a pressured picture, with the price down by 23% from its recent all-time high in January.

儘管比特幣可能仍然是中期，但情感指標繪製了壓力很大的圖片，其價格比1月份最近的歷史最高高點下降了23％。

Data from CryptoQuant reveals that Bitcoin’s Bull Score has dropped to 20, its lowest point in two years. Major price recoveries have only taken place when the Bull Score climbs above 60. This current low reading is a sign that the crypto market is still trapped in uncertainty, where sellers are currently outpacing buyers and momentum.

來自CryptoFant的數據表明，比特幣的牛得分已下降到20，這是兩年來最低點。只有在公牛得分攀升至60以上時，才進行了重大的價格回收。目前的低閱讀表明，加密貨幣市場仍被困住不確定性，賣方目前正在超過買家和勢頭。

Image From X: CryptoQuant

來自X的圖像：加密量

A contributing factor has been the sustained capital outflow from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Since February, more than $4.4 billion has flowed out of spot Bitcoin ETFs. These outflows have added weight to an already fragile price structure after Bitcoin started correcting from its all-time high in January.

一個促成因素是比特幣交易所交易資金的持續資本流出。自2月以來，超過44億美元流出了現貨比特幣ETF。在比特幣從一月份的歷史最高點開始校正之後，這些流出就增加了已經脆弱的價格結構。

As such, short-term holders who entered close to this high and were banking on a continued upside have been exposed to most of the losses.

因此，進入這個高處並在持續上漲的短期持有人處於大部分損失方面。

Image From X: Ali_Charts

圖片來自x：ali_charts

Despite the heavy outflows that defined the past few weeks, there are early signs that this trend may be turning. Data from SosoValue shows that Spot ETF behavior shifted last week, with consecutive days of net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs.

儘管流出了過去幾週的大量流出，但仍有早期跡象表明這種趨勢可能正在變化。來自Sosovalue的數據表明，現場ETF行為上週發生了變化，連續數天的淨流入成斑點比特幣ETF。

Image From SoSoValue

來自Sosovalue的圖像

Particularly, Spot Bitcoin ETFs ended the week on a $744.35 million net inflow, bringing an end to five consecutive weeks of outflows. This return of institutional interest could be the first sign of stabilizing positive Bitcoin sentiment.

特別是，現貨比特幣ETF以7.4435億美元的淨流入結束了一周，使連續五個星期的流出結束了。機構興趣的回報可能是穩定積極比特幣情緒的第一個跡象。

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $84,815.

在寫作時，比特幣的交易價格為84,815美元。