比特幣技術分析師警告稱，市場動盪可能導致價格下跌

技術分析師指出，比特幣面臨重大風險，指出在更廣泛的市場擔憂和歷史模式下，比特幣可能跌至 68,000 美元。

Bitcoin Faces Technical Headwinds: Analysts Eye Potential Price Drop

比特幣面臨技術阻力：分析師關注潛在的價格下跌

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a wave of cautious sentiment, with Bitcoin (BTC) recently slipping below key technical indicators and analysts warning of further downside. As of February 4, 2026, Bitcoin has seen a notable price drop, trading around $76,100 after a dip to $73,000. Over the past week, the digital asset is down approximately 14.8%, raising concerns among investors and analysts.

加密貨幣市場正在經歷一波謹慎情緒，比特幣（BTC）最近跌破關鍵技術指標，分析師警告稱其將進一步下行。截至 2026 年 2 月 4 日，比特幣價格顯著下跌，跌至 73,000 美元後，交易價格約為 76,100 美元。過去一周，該數字資產下跌約 14.8%，引發了投資者和分析師的擔憂。

Key Technical Signals and Analyst Outlooks

關鍵技術信號和分析師展望

Technical analysts are closely watching several indicators that suggest a potential for a continued price decline. Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted that Bitcoin has fallen below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (WEMA) on its weekly chart, a signal that has historically preceded significant drops. Pillows estimates that this could lead to a price drop towards the 200-WEMA, currently situated around $68,400.

技術分析師正在密切關註一些表明價格可能持續下跌的指標。分析師 Ted Pillows 強調，比特幣在周線圖上已跌破 100 天指數移動平均線 (WEMA)，這是歷史上出現大幅下跌之前的信號。 Pillows 估計這可能導致價格跌至 200-WEMA，目前約為 68,400 美元。

Further adding to the bearish outlook, analyst Quinten described the current cycle as "the most disappointing" in Bitcoin's history. Charts indicate that since the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin has not followed the typical upward trend seen after previous halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020. Additionally, Quinten pointed to record oversold conditions, with readings falling below those seen during the COVID-19 crash.

分析師昆頓將當前週期描述為比特幣歷史上“最令人失望的”週期，這進一步加劇了悲觀前景。圖表顯示，自 2024 年 4 月減半以來，比特幣並未遵循 2012 年、2016 年和 2020 年減半後的典型上升趨勢。此外，Quinten 指出，超賣狀況創歷史新高，讀數低於 COVID-19 崩盤期間的水平。

Deeper Corrections and Emerging Patterns

更深層次的修正和新出現的模式

Some analysts are forecasting even more substantial corrections. BitcoinHabebe suggested a slide toward the head-and-shoulders pattern target of $60,000 could be "expected," citing macroeconomic factors. Meanwhile, 0xLanister presented an "extremely alarming picture," forecasting a potential drop to $40,000 if a head-and-shoulders pattern plays out. These views suggest that the current market downturn may have further to run.

一些分析師預測還會出現更大幅度的調整。 BitcoinHabebe 援引宏觀經濟因素表示，跌向 60,000 美元的頭肩形態目標可能是“預期的”。與此同時，0xLanister 呈現了一幅“極其令人擔憂的景象”，預測如果頭肩頂形態出現，價格可能會跌至 40,000 美元。這些觀點表明，當前的市場低迷可能還會持續下去。

Macroeconomic Factors and Market Sentiment

宏觀經濟因素和市場情緒

Beyond technical analysis, macroeconomic factors are also contributing to the cautious sentiment. The easing of shutdown-related pressures in the US government was met with caution due to a new deadline for the Department of Homeland Security funding. Tensions have also risen regarding the Federal Reserve's policy stance, particularly with the nomination of Kevin Warsh, known for his support of quantitative tightening (QT), which could impact the repo market and introduce abrupt stress.

除了技術分析之外，宏觀經濟因素也導致了謹慎情緒。由於國土安全部資金的新截止日期，美國政府在緩解與停擺相關的壓力方面持謹慎態度。美聯儲政策立場的緊張局勢也有所加劇，特別是隨著凱文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)的提名，他以支持量化緊縮(QT)而聞名，這可能會影響回購市場並帶來突然的壓力。

The options market corroborates this cautious mood, with key indicators pointing to elevated volatility. The $75,000 level is considered a crucial psychological and technical barrier for Bitcoin. Holding above this mark could signal a chance for position rebuilding, while breaking below it could quickly turn investor sentiment defensive.

期權市場證實了這種謹慎情緒，關鍵指標表明波動性加劇。 75,000 美元的水平被認為是比特幣的一個重要的心理和技術障礙。保持在該水平之上可能預示著有機會重建頭寸，而跌破該水平可能會迅速使投資者情緒變得防禦性。

A Glimmer of Hope?

一線希望？

Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, some experts offer a more optimistic long-term view. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes the current market downturn is closer to its end than its beginning, comparing it to previous crypto winters. He notes that while the market has experienced significant declines, structural progress in regulation, institutional adoption, and tokenization continues. Similarly, Jack Yi (Yi Lihua) of Liquid Capital remains optimistic about a future bull market, predicting Ethereum could reach above $10,000 and Bitcoin surpass $200,000, suggesting that now is an opportune time to buy spot assets.

儘管悲觀情緒普遍存在，但一些專家提出了更為樂觀的長期觀點。 Bitwise 首席信息官 Matt Hougan 認為，與之前的加密貨幣冬天相比，當前的市場低迷更接近結束，而不是開始。他指出，雖然市場經歷了大幅下滑，但監管、機構採用和代幣化方面的結構性進展仍在繼續。同樣，Liquid Capital的易立華對未來牛市仍持樂觀態度，預計以太坊可能突破1萬美元，比特幣突破20萬美元，這表明現在是購買現貨資產的好時機。

So, while the charts might be showing a bit of a scare, the crypto world keeps spinning! Keep an eye on those technical levels, but remember, the long-term vision for digital assets is still very much in play. Happy HODLing!

因此，雖然圖表可能顯示出一些恐慌，但加密世界仍在旋轉！密切關注這些技術水平，但請記住，數字資產的長期願景仍然發揮著重要作用。持有快樂！