比特币技术分析师警告称，市场动荡可能导致价格下跌

技术分析师指出，比特币面临重大风险，指出在更广泛的市场担忧和历史模式下，比特币可能跌至 68,000 美元。

Bitcoin Faces Technical Headwinds: Analysts Eye Potential Price Drop

比特币面临技术阻力：分析师关注潜在的价格下跌

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a wave of cautious sentiment, with Bitcoin (BTC) recently slipping below key technical indicators and analysts warning of further downside. As of February 4, 2026, Bitcoin has seen a notable price drop, trading around $76,100 after a dip to $73,000. Over the past week, the digital asset is down approximately 14.8%, raising concerns among investors and analysts.

加密货币市场正在经历一波谨慎情绪，比特币（BTC）最近跌破关键技术指标，分析师警告称其将进一步下行。截至 2026 年 2 月 4 日，比特币价格显着下跌，跌至 73,000 美元后，交易价格约为 76,100 美元。过去一周，该数字资产下跌约 14.8%，引发了投资者和分析师的担忧。

Key Technical Signals and Analyst Outlooks

关键技术信号和分析师展望

Technical analysts are closely watching several indicators that suggest a potential for a continued price decline. Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted that Bitcoin has fallen below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (WEMA) on its weekly chart, a signal that has historically preceded significant drops. Pillows estimates that this could lead to a price drop towards the 200-WEMA, currently situated around $68,400.

技术分析师正在密切关注一些表明价格可能持续下跌的指标。分析师 Ted Pillows 强调，比特币在周线图上已跌破 100 天指数移动平均线 (WEMA)，这是历史上出现大幅下跌之前的信号。 Pillows 估计这可能导致价格跌至 200-WEMA，目前约为 68,400 美元。

Further adding to the bearish outlook, analyst Quinten described the current cycle as "the most disappointing" in Bitcoin's history. Charts indicate that since the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin has not followed the typical upward trend seen after previous halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020. Additionally, Quinten pointed to record oversold conditions, with readings falling below those seen during the COVID-19 crash.

分析师昆顿将当前周期描述为比特币历史上“最令人失望的”周期，这进一步加剧了悲观前景。图表显示，自 2024 年 4 月减半以来，比特币并未遵循 2012 年、2016 年和 2020 年减半后的典型上升趋势。此外，Quinten 指出，超卖状况创历史新高，读数低于 COVID-19 崩盘期间的水平。

Deeper Corrections and Emerging Patterns

更深层次的修正和新出现的模式

Some analysts are forecasting even more substantial corrections. BitcoinHabebe suggested a slide toward the head-and-shoulders pattern target of $60,000 could be "expected," citing macroeconomic factors. Meanwhile, 0xLanister presented an "extremely alarming picture," forecasting a potential drop to $40,000 if a head-and-shoulders pattern plays out. These views suggest that the current market downturn may have further to run.

一些分析师预测还会出现更大幅度的调整。 BitcoinHabebe 援引宏观经济因素表示，跌向 60,000 美元的头肩形态目标可能是“预期的”。与此同时，0xLanister 呈现了一幅“极其令人担忧的景象”，预测如果头肩顶形态出现，价格可能会跌至 40,000 美元。这些观点表明，当前的市场低迷可能还会持续下去。

Macroeconomic Factors and Market Sentiment

宏观经济因素和市场情绪

Beyond technical analysis, macroeconomic factors are also contributing to the cautious sentiment. The easing of shutdown-related pressures in the US government was met with caution due to a new deadline for the Department of Homeland Security funding. Tensions have also risen regarding the Federal Reserve's policy stance, particularly with the nomination of Kevin Warsh, known for his support of quantitative tightening (QT), which could impact the repo market and introduce abrupt stress.

除了技术分析之外，宏观经济因素也导致了谨慎情绪。由于国土安全部资金的新截止日期，美国政府在缓解与停摆相关的压力方面持谨慎态度。美联储政策立场的紧张局势也有所加剧，特别是随着凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)的提名，他以支持量化紧缩(QT)而闻名，这可能会影响回购市场并带来突然的压力。

The options market corroborates this cautious mood, with key indicators pointing to elevated volatility. The $75,000 level is considered a crucial psychological and technical barrier for Bitcoin. Holding above this mark could signal a chance for position rebuilding, while breaking below it could quickly turn investor sentiment defensive.

期权市场证实了这种谨慎情绪，关键指标表明波动性加剧。 75,000 美元的水平被认为是比特币的一个重要的心理和技术障碍。保持在该水平之上可能预示着有机会重建头寸，而跌破该水平可能会迅速使投资者情绪变得防御性。

A Glimmer of Hope?

一线希望？

Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, some experts offer a more optimistic long-term view. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes the current market downturn is closer to its end than its beginning, comparing it to previous crypto winters. He notes that while the market has experienced significant declines, structural progress in regulation, institutional adoption, and tokenization continues. Similarly, Jack Yi (Yi Lihua) of Liquid Capital remains optimistic about a future bull market, predicting Ethereum could reach above $10,000 and Bitcoin surpass $200,000, suggesting that now is an opportune time to buy spot assets.

尽管悲观情绪普遍存在，但一些专家提出了更为乐观的长期观点。 Bitwise 首席信息官 Matt Hougan 认为，与之前的加密货币冬天相比，当前的市场低迷更接近结束，而不是开始。他指出，虽然市场经历了大幅下滑，但监管、机构采用和代币化方面的结构性进展仍在继续。同样，Liquid Capital的易立华对未来牛市仍持乐观态度，预计以太坊可能突破1万美元，比特币突破20万美元，这表明现在是购买现货资产的好时机。

So, while the charts might be showing a bit of a scare, the crypto world keeps spinning! Keep an eye on those technical levels, but remember, the long-term vision for digital assets is still very much in play. Happy HODLing!

因此，虽然图表可能显示出一些恐慌，但加密世界仍在旋转！密切关注这些技术水平，但请记住，数字资产的长期愿景仍然发挥着重要作用。持有快乐！