比特幣投降了一個週末超過107,000美元的周末，最後一次易手接近$ 103,200

比特幣的暴力揮桿解釋了。穆迪決定削減美國君主信用等級為AA1的決定，波動率降落

Bitcoin price tumbled more than 4,000 on Monday, wiping out a weekend burst above $107,000 as the global risk-off mood deepened with Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating.

週一，比特幣價格跌幅超過4,000，隨著穆迪（Moody）降級美國信用等級的加深，全球風險情緒加深了一個週末爆發。

Bitcoin’s Violent Swing Explained

比特幣的暴力揮桿解釋了

The flagship cryptocurrency was last changing hands at around $103,200, having hit an intraday high of $107,111 during thin Asian hours before liquidity evaporated and spot markets on Binance and Coinbase slid to the $102,000 level.

旗艦加密貨幣的最後一次易手，大約為103,200美元，在亞洲稀薄的小時內，在流動性蒸發和現貨市場上的貨物市場上跌入了107,111美元，而Coinbase的景點則下跌至102,000美元。

The volatility landed on the heels of Moody’s decision late Friday to cut the sovereign credit rating of the United States to Aa1, stripping the world’s largest economy of the last triple-A crown it still retained after downgrades by S&P in 2011 and Fitch earlier in 2023.

在周五晚些時候穆迪決定將美國的主權信用等級降低到AA1上的命中，這一波動性降落在2011年S＆P降級後仍保留下來的最後一個Triple-A冠軍中，並剝奪了世界上最大的經濟體，並於2023年早些時候降級。

Moody’s cited an “uninterrupted rise in debt and interest costs” as the main driver for the downgrade, which came after the US Treasury posted record outlays for 30-year bonds last week to meet bids and push yields over the 5% level for the first time since April.

穆迪（Moody's）將“債務和利息成本的不間斷上升”稱為降級的主要驅動力，該降級是在美國財政部上週發布了30年期債券的記錄票房，以滿足競標和推動收益率以來，自4月以來首次以5％的價格推高。

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed the ratings move in a televised interview on Sunday.

財政部長斯科特·貝斯特（Scott Bessent）在周日的電視轉播採訪中駁回了評級。

“Moody’s is a lagging indicator. We didn’t get here in the past 100 days. We inherited a 6.7 percent deficit-to-GDP, the highest ever outside a recession or war,” said Bessent, adding that the Biden administration was determined to bring spending down and grow the economy.

“穆迪是一個滯後的指標。在過去的100天內我們沒有到達這裡。我們繼承了6.7％的赤字至GDP，這是經濟衰退或戰爭以外的最高損失。” Bessent說，他補充說，拜登政府決心將支出降低並發展經濟。

While macro anxiety explains most of the Bitcoin pull-back, derivatives positioning amplified the swing. Coinglass data shows more than $665 million worth of leveraged positions were liquidated on the entire crypto market as perpetual funding flipped sharply positive into the spike and then reversed.

宏焦慮解釋了大多數比特幣的傾斜，但定位的衍生物放大了鞦韆。 Coinglass數據顯示，在整個加密貨幣市場上清算了價值超過6.65億美元的槓桿頭寸，因為永久性資金在尖峰上迅速呈陽性，然後反轉。

Dealers long gamma seized the opportunity to lock in profits, Singapore-based QCP Capital said in its Monday note.

總部位於新加坡的QCP Capital在周一的票據中說，經銷商朗伽瑪（Long Gamma）抓住了鎖定利潤的機會。

The weekend pop owed much to Metaplanet’s $104 million BTC purchase, alongside Strategy Inc.’s usual accumulation, QCP added.

QCP補充說，週末流行音樂歸功於Metaplanet耗資1.04億美元的BTC購買，以及戰略Inc.的通常積累。

But Bitcoin’s ability to rally while equities softened reinforces BTC’s positioning as a legitimate store of value, the fund managers noted.

基金經理指出，但是比特幣在股票軟化的同時，比特幣的能力加強了BTC的定位作為合法的價值存儲。

Flows into the ten US spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds underline that narrative.

流入十個美國居幣交易所交易貿易資金的敘述下劃線。

As of 29 April, the latest consolidated figure, the ETFs had drawn a cumulative 38.99 billion of net subscriptions and hold roughly 1.14 million BTC after another $591 million day of inflows, according to Farside Investors data.

根據Farside Investors的數據，截至4月29日，最新的合併數字是，ETF累積了389.9億美元的淨訂閱，並在另外5.91億美元的流入後持有約114萬BTC。

Technical traders are divided on what comes next for Bitcoin.

技術交易者在比特幣接下來會發生的事情上分歧。

Piranha Profits founder Adam Khoo reminded his 450,000 followers on X that previous US downgrades triggered 10% corrections in the S&P 500 but were fully erased within a year.

Piranha Profits創始人亞當·庫（Adam Khoo）提醒他在X上的450,000個追隨者，以前美國降級觸發了10％的校正，在標準普爾500指數中，但在一年內被完全刪除。

“If the SPX drops another 10 percent this round, it would be another great opportunity for me to load up on high-quality businesses,” he wrote, musing whether markets will panic a third time or be smarter now.

他寫道：“如果SPX在本輪比賽中再下降10％，這將是我加載高質量業務的另一個絕佳機會。”他沉思著說市場是第三次驚慌失措還是現在更聰明。

For Bitcoin, the picture is less binary. On-chain data show exchange balances at multi-year lows, and options desks report persistent call-side skew - evidence, QCP says, of structurally bullish positioning despite the whipsaw.

對於比特幣，圖片不那麼二進制。鏈上的數據顯示了多年低點的交換餘額，並且選項桌報告報告持續的呼叫側偏斜 - QCP表示，儘管有鞭打，但有結構看漲的定位。

But traders are watching the $101,000-$100,000 band for first-line support, with a decisive break lower exposing the 50-day exponential moving average around $98,400. Reclaiming $107,000 would reopen January’s record high at $109,114.

但是，交易者正在觀看$ 101,000- $ 100,000的一線支持，而決定性的休息時間較低，揭露了50天的指數式移動平均水平，左右為98,400美元。回收107,000美元將重新開放一月份的紀錄高點，為109,114美元。

Until then, the asset appears content to digest the Moody’s shock - and to let macro traders, not crypto die-hards, set the tempo of the next move.

在此之前，資產顯得滿足，以消化喜怒無常的震驚 - 讓宏觀交易者而不是加密貨幣頑固的頑固派設定下一步的節奏。