比特幣飆升至 6.5 萬美元以上，標誌著減半後波動的結束

5 月 6 日，比特幣價格飆升至 65,000 美元以上，分析師推測減半後的「危險區」可能已經結束，這可能表明加密貨幣的進一步上漲勢頭。減半後的危險區域（以價格波動而聞名的為期三週的時期）被認為已經結束，因為比特幣升至當前約 60,000 美元的重新積累範圍之上。分析師引用歷史數據、技術指標和投資者情緒作為支持他們對比特幣持續成長的樂觀態度的證據。

Bitcoin Soars Past $65,000 as Post-Halving "Danger Zone" Subsides

隨著減半後「危險區」消退，比特幣飆升至 65,000 美元以上

Bitcoin (BTC) has surged above the $65,000 mark, signaling a potential end to the post-halving "danger zone" characterized by price volatility. Crypto analysts suggest that further upside momentum is likely in the coming weeks.

比特幣（BTC）已飆升至 65,000 美元大關，標誌著減半後以價格波動為特徵的「危險區域」可能結束。加密貨幣分析師表示，未來幾週可能會出現進一步的上漲勢頭。

Post-Halving "Danger Zone" May Be Over

減半後的「危險區」可能已經結束

The post-halving danger zone is a three-week period following the halving event, which historically has been associated with downward price swings below the reaccumulation range. With Bitcoin currently trading above the reaccumulation range of approximately $60,000, analysts believe that the danger zone may have concluded.

減半後的危險區域是減半事件發生後的三週時間，從歷史上看，這與價格波動低於重新累積範圍有關。由於比特幣目前的交易價格高於約 6 萬美元的重新累積區間，分析師認為危險區域可能已經結束。

Rekt Capital, a popular crypto analyst, stated on May 6th: "However, price-wise the anticipated effect has already occurred," referring to the post-halving price decline.

知名加密貨幣分析師 Rekt Capital 於 5 月 6 日表示：“然而，從價格角度來看，預期的影響已經發生”，指的是減半後的價格下跌。

Historical Precedents and Technical Indicators

歷史先例和技術指標

During the 2016 bull cycle, Bitcoin experienced an 11% downside correction 21 days after the halving, marking the beginning of a price reversal. Notably, Bitcoin has since rebounded strongly, supporting the view that the post-halving danger zone has passed.

在2016年的多頭週期中，比特幣在減半後21天經歷了11%的下行修正，標誌著價格反轉的開始。值得注意的是，比特幣此後強勁反彈，支持了減半後危險區域已經過去的觀點。

Furthermore, Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo employs the volume-weighted average price (VWAP), an oscillator that incorporates price action and volume, to gauge asset value. According to Woo, the current VWAP suggests that Bitcoin is poised for a breakout and an upward trajectory.

此外，比特幣分析師 Willy Woo 採用成交量加權平均價格（VWAP）（結合價格行為和成交量的震盪指標）來衡量資產價值。 Woo 表示，目前的 VWAP 表明比特幣已做好突破和上升軌蹟的準備。

Shift in Investor Sentiment

投資者情緒的轉變

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a measure of investor sentiment, has risen to 71/100, indicating "greed," a significant improvement from 43/100, which represented "fear," earlier this week. This shift in sentiment further supports the notion of increasing optimism in the Bitcoin market.

衡量投資者情緒的加密貨幣恐懼與貪婪指數已升至 71/100，表明“貪婪”，較本週早些時候代表“恐懼”的 43/100 有了顯著改善。這種情緒的轉變進一步支持了比特幣市場日益樂觀的觀點。

Long-Term Holders May Have Completed Selling

長期持有者可能已完成出售

Recent outflows from 11 United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have contributed to Bitcoin's price correction. However, data indicates that long-term holders (LTH) at the $70,000 price level have potentially finished selling to new investors.

近期美國 11 檔現貨比特幣交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的資金流出導致比特幣價格回檔。然而，數據表明，價格水準為 70,000 美元的長期持有者 (LTH) 可能已完成向新投資者的出售。

CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr. postulates that this could initiate a new active accumulation phase, reducing Bitcoin's sell pressure and paving the way for a gradual climb towards higher levels.

CryptoQuant 作者 Axel Adler Jr. 假設，這可能會啟動一個新的積極累積階段，減少比特幣的拋售壓力，並為逐步攀升至更高水平鋪平道路。

Short-Term Subduedness Possible, Long-Term Bullish Outlook

短期可能疲軟，長期看漲前景

Despite the positive outlook, some analysts anticipate that Bitcoin may experience short-term consolidation due to concerns over inflation and dampened expectations for rate cuts. Mithil Thakore, CEO of Velar, believes that Bitcoin could remain subdued in the near term but remains bullish long-term.

儘管前景樂觀，但一些分析師預計，由於對通膨的擔憂和降息預期的減弱，比特幣可能會經歷短期盤整。 Velar 執行長 Mithil Thakore 認為，比特幣短期內可能保持低迷，但長期看漲。

Thakore predicts that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 before the end of 2024, citing anticipated interest rate reductions, increased demand for ETFs, and advancements in Bitcoin's layer-2 solutions.

Thakore 預測，由於預期利率下降、ETF 需求增加以及比特幣第二層解決方案的進步，比特幣可能在 2024 年底前達到 10 萬美元。

Conclusion

結論

The recent surge in Bitcoin's price above $65,000, coupled with the potential end of the post-halving danger zone and a shift in investor sentiment, suggests that the cryptocurrency is poised for further growth. While short-term consolidation is possible, analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. However, it is crucial to note that all investment and trading decisions should be made after thorough research and due consideration of individual risk tolerance.

最近比特幣價格飆升至 65,000 美元以上，加上減半後危險區域可能結束以及投資者情緒的轉變，表明該加密貨幣有望進一步增長。儘管短期盤整是可能的，但分析師仍對比特幣的長期前景持謹慎樂觀態度。然而，值得注意的是，所有投資和交易決策都應在充分研究並適當考慮個人風險承受能力後做出。