比特币飙升至 6.5 万美元以上，标志着减半后波动的结束

5 月 6 日，比特币价格飙升至 65,000 美元以上，分析师推测减半后的“危险区”可能已经结束，这可能表明加密货币的进一步上涨势头。减半后的危险区域（以价格波动而闻名的为期三周的时期）被认为已经结束，因为比特币升至当前约 60,000 美元的重新积累范围之上。分析师引用历史数据、技术指标和投资者情绪作为支持他们对比特币持续增长的乐观态度的证据。

Bitcoin Soars Past $65,000 as Post-Halving "Danger Zone" Subsides

随着减半后“危险区”消退，比特币飙升至 65,000 美元以上

Bitcoin (BTC) has surged above the $65,000 mark, signaling a potential end to the post-halving "danger zone" characterized by price volatility. Crypto analysts suggest that further upside momentum is likely in the coming weeks.

比特币（BTC）已飙升至 65,000 美元大关，标志着减半后以价格波动为特征的“危险区域”可能结束。加密货币分析师表示，未来几周可能会出现进一步的上涨势头。

Post-Halving "Danger Zone" May Be Over

减半后的“危险区”可能已经结束

The post-halving danger zone is a three-week period following the halving event, which historically has been associated with downward price swings below the reaccumulation range. With Bitcoin currently trading above the reaccumulation range of approximately $60,000, analysts believe that the danger zone may have concluded.

减半后的危险区域是减半事件发生后的三周时间，从历史上看，这与价格波动低于重新积累范围有关。由于比特币目前的交易价格高于约 60,000 美元的重新积累区间，分析师认为危险区域可能已经结束。

Rekt Capital, a popular crypto analyst, stated on May 6th: "However, price-wise the anticipated effect has already occurred," referring to the post-halving price decline.

知名加密货币分析师 Rekt Capital 于 5 月 6 日表示：“然而，从价格角度来看，预期的影响已经发生”，指的是减半后的价格下跌。

Historical Precedents and Technical Indicators

历史先例和技术指标

During the 2016 bull cycle, Bitcoin experienced an 11% downside correction 21 days after the halving, marking the beginning of a price reversal. Notably, Bitcoin has since rebounded strongly, supporting the view that the post-halving danger zone has passed.

在2016年的牛市周期中，比特币在减半后21天经历了11%的下行修正，标志着价格反转的开始。值得注意的是，比特币此后强劲反弹，支持了减半后危险区域已经过去的观点。

Furthermore, Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo employs the volume-weighted average price (VWAP), an oscillator that incorporates price action and volume, to gauge asset value. According to Woo, the current VWAP suggests that Bitcoin is poised for a breakout and an upward trajectory.

此外，比特币分析师 Willy Woo 采用成交量加权平均价格（VWAP）（一种结合价格行为和成交量的震荡指标）来衡量资产价值。 Woo 表示，当前的 VWAP 表明比特币已做好突破和上升轨迹的准备。

Shift in Investor Sentiment

投资者情绪的转变

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a measure of investor sentiment, has risen to 71/100, indicating "greed," a significant improvement from 43/100, which represented "fear," earlier this week. This shift in sentiment further supports the notion of increasing optimism in the Bitcoin market.

衡量投资者情绪的加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数已升至 71/100，表明“贪婪”，较本周早些时候代表“恐惧”的 43/100 有了显着改善。这种情绪的转变进一步支持了比特币市场日益乐观的观点。

Long-Term Holders May Have Completed Selling

长期持有者可能已完成出售

Recent outflows from 11 United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have contributed to Bitcoin's price correction. However, data indicates that long-term holders (LTH) at the $70,000 price level have potentially finished selling to new investors.

近期美国 11 只现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的资金流出导致比特币价格回调。然而，数据表明，价格水平为 70,000 美元的长期持有者 (LTH) 可能已完成向新投资者的出售。

CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr. postulates that this could initiate a new active accumulation phase, reducing Bitcoin's sell pressure and paving the way for a gradual climb towards higher levels.

CryptoQuant 作者 Axel Adler Jr. 假设，这可能会启动一个新的积极积累阶段，减少比特币的抛售压力，并为逐步攀升至更高水平铺平道路。

Short-Term Subduedness Possible, Long-Term Bullish Outlook

短期可能疲软，长期看涨前景

Despite the positive outlook, some analysts anticipate that Bitcoin may experience short-term consolidation due to concerns over inflation and dampened expectations for rate cuts. Mithil Thakore, CEO of Velar, believes that Bitcoin could remain subdued in the near term but remains bullish long-term.

尽管前景乐观，但一些分析师预计，由于对通胀的担忧和降息预期的减弱，比特币可能会经历短期盘整。 Velar 首席执行官 Mithil Thakore 认为，比特币短期内可能保持低迷，但长期看涨。

Thakore predicts that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 before the end of 2024, citing anticipated interest rate reductions, increased demand for ETFs, and advancements in Bitcoin's layer-2 solutions.

Thakore 预测，由于预期利率下降、ETF 需求增加以及比特币第二层解决方案的进步，比特币可能在 2024 年底前达到 10 万美元。

Conclusion

结论

The recent surge in Bitcoin's price above $65,000, coupled with the potential end of the post-halving danger zone and a shift in investor sentiment, suggests that the cryptocurrency is poised for further growth. While short-term consolidation is possible, analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects. However, it is crucial to note that all investment and trading decisions should be made after thorough research and due consideration of individual risk tolerance.

最近比特币价格飙升至 65,000 美元以上，加上减半后危险区域可能结束以及投资者情绪的转变，表明该加密货币有望进一步增长。尽管短期盘整是可能的，但分析师仍对比特币的长期前景持谨慎乐观态度。然而，值得注意的是，所有投资和交易决策都应在充分研究并适当考虑个人风险承受能力后做出。