比特幣已延長到其創紀錄的$ 108,000價格的距離之內

比特幣已經在其創紀錄的$ 108,000價格的距離內飆升，但市場觀察者敢打賭，達到歷史最高水平將只是開始

Bitcoin price is nearing record highs again, and market watchers say that reaching the all-time high will just be the start, with traders, analysts, and Polymarket punters betting on the leading cryptocurrency to climb as high as $200,000 this year.

比特幣的價格再次接近創紀錄的高點，市場觀察家說，到達歷史最高水平將只是開始，商人，分析師和多聚市場的下注者下註今年領先的加密貨幣攀升至200,000美元。

“The bull case for Bitcoin has never been stronger,” former Meta and PayPal executive David Marcus said in a post on X, formerly Twitter, as banks are now able to provide custody and offer it to their customers, and sovereign states and corporations are competing to buy.

前Meta和Paypal執行官David Marcus在X上的一篇文章（以前是Twitter的帖子）中說：“比特幣的公牛案從來沒有更強大。”由於銀行現在能夠提供監護權並將其提供給客戶，主權國家和公司正在競爭購買。

“Buckle up.”

“扣緊。”

This is a stark contrast from just a month ago, when Bitcoin was trading near long-term lows around $75,000. However, the cryptocurrency has since rebounded to hit $60,000 on Thursday.

與一個月前相比，這是一個鮮明的對比，當時比特幣的長期低點約為75,000美元。但是，此後的加密貨幣在周四的反彈率達到了60,000美元。

The shift comes on the back of news that the US and China have inched closer to ending their trade war and renewed interest from institutions in the sector.

這一轉變是在新聞的背面，即美國和中國已經接近結束他們的貿易戰，並從該行業的機構開始了利益。

Here’s a summary of what the market watchers are saying:

這是市場觀察家在說什麼的摘要：

Standard Chartered’s top crypto researcher says that his second-quarter price target of $120,000 for Bitcoin may be too low.

Standard Charter的頂級加密研究員說，他的第二季度目標價為120,000美元的比特幣可能太低。

“We may be forced to revise our 2Q 2024 price forecast of $120,000 higher following recent developments,” Geoffrey Kendrick, the UK bank’s head of digital assets research, wrote in a research note earlier in May.

英國銀行數字資產研究負責人杰弗裡·肯德里克（Geoffrey Kendrick）在5月初的一份研究報告中寫道：“在最近的發展之後，我們可能會被迫修改我們的2q 2024價格預測額為120,000美元。”

Kendrick explained that investors have topped up their portfolios with Bitcoin to diversify away from US assets following US President Donald Trump’s tariff regime.

肯德里克（Kendrick）解釋說，在美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的關稅政權之後，投資者已經用比特幣充滿了投資組合，以使其遠離美國資產。

“The thinking goes that, faced with a choice between accumulating an asset that is subject to capricious administrative fiat or an asset that is fundamentally sound and has intrinsic value, investors will choose the latter.”

“想法是，面對累積具有反复無常行政菲亞特的資產或從根本上是合理且具有內在價值的資產之間的選擇，投資者將選擇後者。”

This demand has helped to push up the price of Bitcoin, which is now trading at levels not seen since November 2021.

這種需求有助於推高比特幣的價格，比特幣的價格現在以自2021年11月以來未見的水平交易。

Polymarket punters also back the case, with the majority of wagers clustered between $90,000 and $115,000, and the $110,000 level attracting the most interest as a potential peak for May.

Polymarket Ponters也支持此案，大多數賭注盤中了90,000美元至115,000美元，而110,000美元的水平吸引了最大的利益，這是5月的潛在峰值。

More long-term, both Kendrick and Maelstrom CEO Arthur Hayes are among those who argue that Bitcoin will likely hit $200,000 by the end of 2025.

更長期的是，肯德里克（Kendrick）和莫爾斯特羅姆（Maelstrom）首席執行官亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）都認為，到2025年底，比特幣可能會達到200,000美元。

The easing tension between the US and China has also helped to fuel Bitcoin bullishness.

美國和中國之間的緩解張力也有助於助長比特幣的看漲。

Both nations have agreed to a 90-day pause on new trade measures and will reduce reciprocal tariffs to a 10% baseline rate, down from levels of over 100%.

兩國都同意對新的貿易措施進行90天的停頓，並將相互關稅降低至基准率10％，低於100％以上的水平。

The move comes after months of tension between the two economic superpowers, sparked by Trump’s administration imposing tariffs on Chinese goods in an effort to reduce the US trade deficit with China and force the country to change its trade practices.

此舉是在兩個經濟超級大國之間的幾個月緊張局勢之後，特朗普政府對中國商品徵收關稅，以減少美國與中國的貿易赤字，並迫使該國改變其貿易行為。

The agreement will also alleviate fears of a global recession, with markets responding positively to the news.

該協議還將減輕對全球衰退的擔憂，市場對新聞有積極的回應。

US stock futures surged, the dollar strengthened, and investor sentiment improved, creating a more favorable environment for risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

美國股票期貨飆升，美元加強，投資者的情緒得到了改善，為像比特幣這樣的風險資產創造了更有利的環境。

“Buy everything! Chi-Merica lives!” Hayes said in a post on X.

“買一切！Chi-Merica的生活！”海斯在X上的一篇文章中說。

The macroeconomic backdrop is also shifting in Bitcoin’s favor, with a wave of liquidity driven by monetary policy shifts, particularly in China, converging with a return of institutional interest.

宏觀經濟的背景也在比特幣受到支持，貨幣政策轉變驅動的流動性浪潮，尤其是在中國，融合了機構利益的回歸。

The People’s Bank of China recently cut its reserve requirement ratio and lowered key short-term interest rates, injecting approximately $1 trillion into the financial system.

中國人民銀行最近削減了儲備金比率，並降低了主要的短期利率，向金融體系注入了約1萬億美元。

This liquidity surge has acted as a "dollar wrecking ball in reverse," weakening the dollar and providing cover for other central banks to ease monetary policy without risking capital flight, according to the analysts from the London Crypto Club.

倫敦加密俱樂部的分析師稱，這種流動性激增充當了“倒車的美元破壞球”，削弱了美元並為其他中央銀行提供掩護，以減輕貨幣政策，而不會冒險進行資本飛行。

"We are set to see new record highs across the board over the coming weeks and months," they wrote in a recent note.

他們在最近的一份票據中寫道：“我們將在接下來的幾周和幾個月中看到新的紀錄高點。”

As for institutional interest, companies like Strategy have been steadily gobbling up Bitcoin, and analysts at VanEck highlighted the cryptocurrency’s growing role in international trade.

至於機構利益，諸如戰略的公司一直在穩步吞噬比特幣，而Vaneck的分析師強調了加密貨幣在國際貿易中的日益增長的作用。

According to the analysts, countries like Russia and Venezuela are increasingly using Bitcoin to circumvent sanctions and hedge against dollar risk.

根據分析師的說法，俄羅斯和委內瑞拉等國家越來越多地利用比特幣來規避制裁和對沖美元風險。

“We believe that over the longer term, institutions will come to view Bitcoin as a critical portfolio asset, especially as they try to navigate a more complex and uncertain economic landscape,” said BlackRock’s Robbie Mitchnick.

貝萊克（Blackrock）的羅比·米奇尼克（Robbie Mitchnick）說：“我們認為，從長遠來看，機構將把比特幣視為關鍵的投資組合資產，尤其是當他們試圖瀏覽更複雜和不確定的經濟環境時。”

Mitchnick added that institutions are interested in Bitcoin as a hedge against downside risk events and a diversifying asset in a low-return, high-inflationary environment.

米奇尼克（Mitchnick）補充說，機構對比特幣感興趣，這是對偏低風險事件的對沖和在低迴報，高通貨膨脹環境中多元化的資產。