比特币已延长到其创纪录的$ 108,000价格的距离之内

比特币已经在其创纪录的$ 108,000价格的距离内飙升，但市场观察者敢打赌，达到历史最高水平将只是开始

Bitcoin price is nearing record highs again, and market watchers say that reaching the all-time high will just be the start, with traders, analysts, and Polymarket punters betting on the leading cryptocurrency to climb as high as $200,000 this year.

比特币的价格再次接近创纪录的高点，市场观察家说，到达历史最高水平将只是开始，商人，分析师和多聚市场的下注者下注今年领先的加密货币攀升至200,000美元。

“The bull case for Bitcoin has never been stronger,” former Meta and PayPal executive David Marcus said in a post on X, formerly Twitter, as banks are now able to provide custody and offer it to their customers, and sovereign states and corporations are competing to buy.

前Meta和Paypal执行官David Marcus在X上的一篇文章（以前是Twitter的帖子）中说：“比特币的公牛案从来没有更强大。”由于银行现在能够提供监护权并将其提供给客户，主权国家和公司正在竞争购买。

“Buckle up.”

“扣紧。”

This is a stark contrast from just a month ago, when Bitcoin was trading near long-term lows around $75,000. However, the cryptocurrency has since rebounded to hit $60,000 on Thursday.

与一个月前相比，这是一个鲜明的对比，当时比特币的长期低点约为75,000美元。但是，此后的加密货币在周四的反弹率达到了60,000美元。

The shift comes on the back of news that the US and China have inched closer to ending their trade war and renewed interest from institutions in the sector.

这一转变是在新闻的背面，即美国和中国已经接近结束他们的贸易战，并从该行业的机构开始了利益。

Here’s a summary of what the market watchers are saying:

这是市场观察家在说什么的摘要：

Standard Chartered’s top crypto researcher says that his second-quarter price target of $120,000 for Bitcoin may be too low.

Standard Charter的顶级加密研究员说，他的第二季度目标价为120,000美元的比特币可能太低。

“We may be forced to revise our 2Q 2024 price forecast of $120,000 higher following recent developments,” Geoffrey Kendrick, the UK bank’s head of digital assets research, wrote in a research note earlier in May.

英国银行数字资产研究负责人杰弗里·肯德里克（Geoffrey Kendrick）在5月初的一份研究报告中写道：“在最近的发展之后，我们可能会被迫修改我们的2q 2024价格预测额为120,000美元。”

Kendrick explained that investors have topped up their portfolios with Bitcoin to diversify away from US assets following US President Donald Trump’s tariff regime.

肯德里克（Kendrick）解释说，在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的关税政权之后，投资者已经用比特币充满了投资组合，以使其远离美国资产。

“The thinking goes that, faced with a choice between accumulating an asset that is subject to capricious administrative fiat or an asset that is fundamentally sound and has intrinsic value, investors will choose the latter.”

“想法是，面对累积具有反复无常行政菲亚特的资产或从根本上是合理且具有内在价值的资产之间的选择，投资者将选择后者。”

This demand has helped to push up the price of Bitcoin, which is now trading at levels not seen since November 2021.

这种需求有助于推高比特币的价格，比特币的价格现在以自2021年11月以来未见的水平交易。

Polymarket punters also back the case, with the majority of wagers clustered between $90,000 and $115,000, and the $110,000 level attracting the most interest as a potential peak for May.

Polymarket Ponters也支持此案，大多数赌注盘中了90,000美元至115,000美元，而110,000美元的水平吸引了最大的利益，这是5月的潜在峰值。

More long-term, both Kendrick and Maelstrom CEO Arthur Hayes are among those who argue that Bitcoin will likely hit $200,000 by the end of 2025.

更长期的是，肯德里克（Kendrick）和莫尔斯特罗姆（Maelstrom）首席执行官亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）都认为，到2025年底，比特币可能会达到200,000美元。

The easing tension between the US and China has also helped to fuel Bitcoin bullishness.

美国和中国之间的缓解张力也有助于助长比特币的看涨。

Both nations have agreed to a 90-day pause on new trade measures and will reduce reciprocal tariffs to a 10% baseline rate, down from levels of over 100%.

两国都同意对新的贸易措施进行90天的停顿，并将相互关税降低至基准率10％，低于100％以上的水平。

The move comes after months of tension between the two economic superpowers, sparked by Trump’s administration imposing tariffs on Chinese goods in an effort to reduce the US trade deficit with China and force the country to change its trade practices.

此举是在两个经济超级大国之间的几个月紧张局势之后，特朗普政府对中国商品征收关税，以减少美国与中国的贸易赤字，并迫使该国改变其贸易行为。

The agreement will also alleviate fears of a global recession, with markets responding positively to the news.

该协议还将减轻对全球衰退的担忧，市场对新闻有积极的回应。

US stock futures surged, the dollar strengthened, and investor sentiment improved, creating a more favorable environment for risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

美国股票期货飙升，美元加强，投资者的情绪得到了改善，为像比特币这样的风险资产创造了更有利的环境。

“Buy everything! Chi-Merica lives!” Hayes said in a post on X.

“买一切！Chi-Merica的生活！”海斯在X上的一篇文章中说。

The macroeconomic backdrop is also shifting in Bitcoin’s favor, with a wave of liquidity driven by monetary policy shifts, particularly in China, converging with a return of institutional interest.

宏观经济的背景也在比特币受到支持，货币政策转变驱动的流动性浪潮，尤其是在中国，融合了机构利益的回归。

The People’s Bank of China recently cut its reserve requirement ratio and lowered key short-term interest rates, injecting approximately $1 trillion into the financial system.

中国人民银行最近削减了储备金比率，并降低了主要的短期利率，向金融体系注入了约1万亿美元。

This liquidity surge has acted as a "dollar wrecking ball in reverse," weakening the dollar and providing cover for other central banks to ease monetary policy without risking capital flight, according to the analysts from the London Crypto Club.

伦敦加密俱乐部的分析师称，这种流动性激增充当“反向的美元破坏球”，削弱了美元并为其他中央银行提供掩护，以减轻货币政策，而无需冒险进行资本飞行。

"We are set to see new record highs across the board over the coming weeks and months," they wrote in a recent note.

他们在最近的一份票据中写道：“我们将在接下来的几周和几个月中看到新的纪录高点。”

As for institutional interest, companies like Strategy have been steadily gobbling up Bitcoin, and analysts at VanEck highlighted the cryptocurrency’s growing role in international trade.

至于机构利益，诸如战略的公司一直在稳步吞噬比特币，而Vaneck的分析师强调了加密货币在国际贸易中的日益增长的作用。

According to the analysts, countries like Russia and Venezuela are increasingly using Bitcoin to circumvent sanctions and hedge against dollar risk.

根据分析师的说法，俄罗斯和委内瑞拉等国家越来越多地利用比特币来规避制裁和对冲美元风险。

“We believe that over the longer term, institutions will come to view Bitcoin as a critical portfolio asset, especially as they try to navigate a more complex and uncertain economic landscape,” said BlackRock’s Robbie Mitchnick.

贝莱克（Blackrock）的罗比·米奇尼克（Robbie Mitchnick）说：“我们认为，从长远来看，机构将把比特币视为关键的投资组合资产，尤其是当他们试图浏览更复杂和不确定的经济环境时。”

Mitchnick added that institutions are interested in Bitcoin as a hedge against downside risk events and a diversifying asset in a low-return, high-inflationary environment.

米奇尼克（Mitchnick）补充说，机构对比特币感兴趣，这是对偏低风险事件的对冲和在低回报，高通货膨胀环境中多元化的资产。