比特幣停滯不前，但分析師預測即將上漲

目前加密市場的平靜狀態，比特幣（BTC）在有限範圍內盤整，可能會持續一到六個月。分析師表示，這段低波動性和投資者情緒低迷的時期可能類似於2023 年出現的長期橫盤走勢。通常發生在2023 年之前。 Santiment 的數據表明，對 BTC 近期回調的「逢低買入」興趣疲軟可能表明接近底部。 Bitfinex 分析師預計，這種平靜可能會持續到初夏，而聯準會的量化緊縮可能會影響 6 月的市場情緒。然而，聯準會會議後美元近期的疲軟可能預示著趨勢的轉變，可能會支撐加密貨幣反彈的下一輪上漲。

Bitcoin Market Languishes in Stagnant Phase, But Analysts Predict Impending Turnaround

比特幣市場陷入停滯階段，但分析師預測即將好轉

The cryptocurrency market has found itself ensnared in a period of prolonged consolidation, with digital assets oscillating within a narrow range and failing to ignite any substantial rallies. This lull has tested the resolve of investors, raising questions about the sustainability of the bull market.

加密貨幣市場陷入了長期盤整期，數位資產窄幅震盪，未能引發大幅反彈。這種平靜考驗了投資者的決心，引發了人們對牛市可持續性的質疑。

Despite persistent attempts to spark a sustained upswing, selling pressure has relentlessly extinguished any bullish momentum. The most recent setback occurred on Friday, when Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted nearly 5% from $63,000 to just above $60,000, fueled by discouraging inflation expectations and hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve policymakers.

儘管不斷嘗試引發持續上漲，但拋售壓力無情地澆熄了所有看漲勢頭。最近的一次挫折發生在周五，受通膨預期低迷和聯準會政策制定者的鷹派評論推動，比特幣 (BTC) 從 63,000 美元暴跌近 5% 至略高於 60,000 美元。

The lack of enthusiasm from dip buyers during Friday's tumble suggests that the market may be approaching a bottom, according to analytics firm Santiment. This interpretation is further supported by the declining blockchain activity, with transactions on the Bitcoin network experiencing a significant drop and the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether (ETH), exhibiting inflationary tendencies.

分析公司 Santiment 表示，週五暴跌期間逢低買家缺乏熱情表明市場可能接近底部。區塊鏈活動的下降進一步支持了這種解釋，比特幣網路上的交易量大幅下降，而第二大加密貨幣以太幣（ETH）則表現出通膨趨勢。

This current period of stagnation bears a striking resemblance to the six-month stretch from April to September 2023, when Bitcoin was confined within the $25,000-$30,000 range. However, that period ultimately culminated in a multi-month rally, with BTC eventually reaching its all-time high in March of this year.

目前的停滯期與 2023 年 4 月至 9 月的六個月時期有著驚人的相似之處，當時比特幣的價格被限制在 25,000 美元至 30,000 美元的範圍內。然而，這段時期最終導致了長達數月的上漲，比特幣最終在今年 3 月達到了歷史新高。

"Bitcoin is in the 'bore you to death' phase," asserted Charles Edwards, founder of crypto hedge fund Capriole Investment. He anticipates that this period of consolidation could persist for one to six months, characterized by low price volatility and range-bound trading until market sentiment reaches a point of extreme pessimism.

加密貨幣對沖基金 Capriole Investment 的創始人查爾斯·愛德華茲 (Charles Edwards) 斷言：“比特幣正處於‘無聊至死’階段。”他預計，這一盤整期可能會持續一到六個月，其特點是價格波動較小和區間交易，直到市場情緒達到極度悲觀的程度。

"When you are sufficiently bored from sideways chop, common symptoms will include thinking the halving is priced in, the bull market is over, and selling to buy stocks at the bottom," Edwards elaborated. "Your symptoms and shorts will peak just before the mega rally."

愛德華茲解釋說：“當你對橫盤震盪感到足夠厭倦時，常見的症狀包括認為減半已被定價、牛市已經結束，並在底部賣出買入股票。” “你的症狀和空頭將在大漲之前達到頂峰。”

Bitfinex analysts echoed this sentiment, suggesting that the recent weakness in Bitcoin may extend into early summer amidst a strengthening U.S. dollar and tempered expectations for interest rate cuts. "We expect the market to remain uncertain over the short-term in a low volatility environment till the actual tapering of quantitative tightening (QT) takes place in June," they stated.

Bitfinex 分析師也認同這種觀點，認為在美元走強的情況下，比特幣近期的疲軟可能延續到初夏，並削弱了降息預期。他們表示：“我們預計，在低波動環境下，市場短期內仍將存在不確定性，直到 6 月實際縮減量化緊縮政策（QT）為止。”

However, a recent reversal in the U.S. dollar's trajectory, following a weaker-than-expected jobs report and the Federal Reserve meeting, has injected a glimmer of hope into the cryptocurrency market. Analysts believe that a sustained decline in the dollar could provide a catalyst for a new leg up in the crypto rally.

然而，在就業報告弱於預期和聯準會會議之後，美元走勢近期出現逆轉，為加密貨幣市場注入了一線希望。分析師認為，美元持續下跌可能為加密貨幣反彈提供新的推動力。

"We believe sustained strength and a reclaim of range lows on BTC post-FOMC and job market data, along with the simultaneous weakness in the dollar, is a sign of a new regime, which would set us up for a very bullish Q3-Q4 for Bitcoin," the Bitfinex analysts concluded.

「我們認為，在聯邦公開市場委員會和就業市場數據公佈後，比特幣的持續走強和區間低點的恢復，以及美元的同時疲軟，是新制度的跡象，這將使我們為第三季至第四季的非常看漲做好準備。

While the current market lull may test the patience of investors, analysts remain optimistic that a turnaround is on the horizon. The key, they emphasize, is to maintain a long-term perspective and avoid succumbing to the despair that往往 accompanies extended periods of consolidation.

儘管當前的市場平靜可能會考驗投資人的耐心，但分析師仍樂觀地認為市場即將出現好轉。他們強調，關鍵在於保持長遠的眼光，避免屈服於長期盤整期間常出現的絕望。