比特币停滞不前，但分析师预测即将上涨

目前加密市场的平静状态，比特币（BTC）在有限范围内盘整，可能会持续一到六个月。分析师表示，这段低波动性和投资者情绪低迷的时期可能类似于 2023 年出现的长期横盘走势。他们认为，在这一“无聊至死”阶段之后将出现大幅反弹，最负面的情绪通常发生在 2023 年之前。逆转。 Santiment 的数据表明，对 BTC 近期回调的“逢低买入”兴趣疲软可能表明接近底部。 Bitfinex 分析师预计，这种平静可能会持续到初夏，美联储的量化紧缩可能会影响 6 月份的市场情绪。然而，美联储会议后美元近期的疲软可能预示着趋势的转变，可能会支撑加密货币反弹的下一轮上涨。

Bitcoin Market Languishes in Stagnant Phase, But Analysts Predict Impending Turnaround

比特币市场陷入停滞阶段，但分析师预测即将出现好转

The cryptocurrency market has found itself ensnared in a period of prolonged consolidation, with digital assets oscillating within a narrow range and failing to ignite any substantial rallies. This lull has tested the resolve of investors, raising questions about the sustainability of the bull market.

加密货币市场陷入了长期盘整期，数字资产窄幅震荡，未能引发大幅反弹。这种平静考验了投资者的决心，引发了人们对牛市可持续性的质疑。

Despite persistent attempts to spark a sustained upswing, selling pressure has relentlessly extinguished any bullish momentum. The most recent setback occurred on Friday, when Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted nearly 5% from $63,000 to just above $60,000, fueled by discouraging inflation expectations and hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve policymakers.

尽管不断尝试引发持续上涨，但抛售压力无情地浇灭了所有看涨势头。最近的一次挫折发生在周五，受通胀预期低迷和美联储政策制定者的鹰派评论推动，比特币 (BTC) 从 63,000 美元暴跌近 5% 至略高于 60,000 美元。

The lack of enthusiasm from dip buyers during Friday's tumble suggests that the market may be approaching a bottom, according to analytics firm Santiment. This interpretation is further supported by the declining blockchain activity, with transactions on the Bitcoin network experiencing a significant drop and the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether (ETH), exhibiting inflationary tendencies.

分析公司 Santiment 表示，周五暴跌期间逢低买家缺乏热情表明市场可能已接近底部。区块链活动的下降进一步支持了这种解释，比特币网络上的交易量大幅下降，而第二大加密货币以太币（ETH）则表现出通胀趋势。

This current period of stagnation bears a striking resemblance to the six-month stretch from April to September 2023, when Bitcoin was confined within the $25,000-$30,000 range. However, that period ultimately culminated in a multi-month rally, with BTC eventually reaching its all-time high in March of this year.

当前的停滞期与 2023 年 4 月至 9 月的六个月时期有着惊人的相似之处，当时比特币的价格被限制在 25,000 美元至 30,000 美元的范围内。然而，这一时期最终导致了长达数月的上涨，比特币最终在今年 3 月达到了历史新高。

"Bitcoin is in the 'bore you to death' phase," asserted Charles Edwards, founder of crypto hedge fund Capriole Investment. He anticipates that this period of consolidation could persist for one to six months, characterized by low price volatility and range-bound trading until market sentiment reaches a point of extreme pessimism.

加密货币对冲基金 Capriole Investment 的创始人查尔斯·爱德华兹 (Charles Edwards) 断言：“比特币正处于‘无聊至死’阶段。”他预计，这一盘整期可能会持续一到六个月，其特点是价格波动较小和区间交易，直到市场情绪达到极度悲观的程度。

"When you are sufficiently bored from sideways chop, common symptoms will include thinking the halving is priced in, the bull market is over, and selling to buy stocks at the bottom," Edwards elaborated. "Your symptoms and shorts will peak just before the mega rally."

爱德华兹解释说：“当你对横盘震荡感到足够厌倦时，常见的症状包括认为减半已被定价、牛市已经结束，并在底部卖出买入股票。” “你的症状和空头将在大涨之前达到顶峰。”

Bitfinex analysts echoed this sentiment, suggesting that the recent weakness in Bitcoin may extend into early summer amidst a strengthening U.S. dollar and tempered expectations for interest rate cuts. "We expect the market to remain uncertain over the short-term in a low volatility environment till the actual tapering of quantitative tightening (QT) takes place in June," they stated.

Bitfinex 分析师也认同这种观点，认为在美元走强的情况下，比特币近期的疲软可能会延续到初夏，并削弱了降息预期。他们表示：“我们预计，在低波动环境下，市场短期内仍将存在不确定性，直到 6 月份实际缩减量化紧缩政策（QT）为止。”

However, a recent reversal in the U.S. dollar's trajectory, following a weaker-than-expected jobs report and the Federal Reserve meeting, has injected a glimmer of hope into the cryptocurrency market. Analysts believe that a sustained decline in the dollar could provide a catalyst for a new leg up in the crypto rally.

然而，在就业报告弱于预期和美联储会议之后，美元走势近期出现逆转，为加密货币市场注入了一线希望。分析师认为，美元持续下跌可能为加密货币反弹提供新的推动力。

"We believe sustained strength and a reclaim of range lows on BTC post-FOMC and job market data, along with the simultaneous weakness in the dollar, is a sign of a new regime, which would set us up for a very bullish Q3-Q4 for Bitcoin," the Bitfinex analysts concluded.

“我们认为，在联邦公开市场委员会和就业市场数据公布后，比特币的持续走强和区间低点的恢复，以及美元的同时疲软，是新制度的迹象，这将使我们为第三季度至第四季度的非常看涨做好准备。对于比特币来说，”Bitfinex 分析师总结道。

While the current market lull may test the patience of investors, analysts remain optimistic that a turnaround is on the horizon. The key, they emphasize, is to maintain a long-term perspective and avoid succumbing to the despair that往往 accompanies extended periods of consolidation.

尽管当前的市场平静可能会考验投资者的耐心，但分析师仍乐观地认为市场即将出现好转。他们强调，关键是要保持长远的眼光，避免屈服于长期盘整期间常常出现的绝望。