儘管市場波動，比特幣 2024 年仍將飆升 50%，預計將發生減半事件

The digital asset has seen a roughly 50 per cent increase in value this year, despite experiencing a decline from its all-time high of $73,798 reached on March 14th. The surge witnessed this year is attributed to the approval of bitcoin ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in January, along with anticipations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.

儘管該數位資產的價值較 3 月 14 日達到的歷史高點 73,798 美元有所下降，但今年的價值仍增長了約 50%。今年的飆升歸因於美國證券交易委員會在一月份批准了比特幣 ETF，以及聯準會降息的預期。

Also read: Cryptocurrencies are rallying again, but concerns remain

另請閱讀：加密貨幣再次反彈，但擔憂依然存在

As the 2024 Bitcoin halving event draws near, speculation arises regarding the potential for history to repeat itself within the market.

隨著 2024 年比特幣減半事件的臨近，市場上出現了關於歷史可能重演的猜測。

What does bitcoin halving mean?

Bitcoins were conceived by the pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto with a capped supply of 21 million tokens in mind. Within its fundamental blockchain framework, halving occurs to adjust the code, decreasing the pace of new token creation. The introduction of new coins into the system is contingent upon miners successfully solving intricate mathematical puzzles to construct the blockchain and earn rewards, denominated in bitcoins. These rewards undergo halving every four years subsequent to the addition of 210,000 new tokens to the system.

比特幣減半代表什麼？比特幣是由化名創造者中本聰設想的，其供應上限為 2,100 萬枚。在其基本區塊鏈框架內，減半是為了調整程式碼，從而降低新代幣創建的速度。將新硬幣引入系統取決於礦工成功解決複雜的數學難題以建立區塊鏈並獲得以比特幣計價的獎勵。在系統中添加 210,000 個新代幣後，這些獎勵每四年減半。

The most recent 'halving' occurred on May 11, 2020, resulting in a 12 percent increase in prices during the subsequent week. This month marks the fourth occurrence of such an event since 2012, with the reward diminishing from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins per 10 minutes. Initially, in 2009, miners were rewarded with 50 bitcoins every 10 minutes.

最近一次「減半」發生在 2020 年 5 月 11 日，導致接下來一週價格上漲 12%。本月是自 2012 年以來第四次發生此類事件，獎勵從每 10 分鐘 6.25 比特幣減少到 3.125 比特幣。最初，2009 年，礦工每 10 分鐘獲得 50 個比特幣獎勵。

Also read: Bitcoin gained 150% in FY24, to remain in positive trajectory in FY25: Experts

另請閱讀：專家指出，比特幣在 24 財年上漲了 150%，在 25 財年保持積極的軌跡

It is anticipated that this process will conclude once 21 million tokens have been mined, with projections suggesting this milestone will likely be reached around the year 2140.

預計一旦開採出 2,100 萬個代幣，這一過程就會結束，預計這一里程碑可能會在 2140 年左右達到。

Will bitcoin prices surge post halving?

Bitcoin Halving events historically herald significant price increases attributed to reduced supply and heightened scarcity. According to Sumit Gupta, co-founder, CoinDCX, this upcoming halving, stands distinct from its predecessors, propelled by a confluence of unique factors poised to reshape market dynamics.

比特幣價格會在減半後飆升嗎？從歷史上看，比特幣減半事件預示著由於供應減少和稀缺性加劇而導致的價格大幅上漲。 CoinDCX 聯合創始人 Sumit Gupta 表示，即將到來的減半與先前的減半截然不同，這是由一系列獨特因素共同推動的，這些因素將重塑市場動態。

However, market experts are skeptical that BTC might go under significant surge. “If historical patterns are to be followed, the prices of BTC might not undergo a significant surge before two months post halving. However, Bitcoin has already defied that by reaching its all time high before the halving, for the first time ever," Rajagopal Menon, VP, WazirX, told Livemint.

然而，市場專家對比特幣是否會大幅上漲表示懷疑。 「如果遵循歷史規律，比特幣價格在減半後兩個月內可能不會大幅上漲。然而，比特幣已經挑戰了這一點，在減半之前首次達到歷史新高，」WazirX 副總裁 Rajagopal Menon 告訴 Livemint。

Also read: South Korean Party Pledges Access to US Bitcoin ETFs in Race for Votes

另請閱讀：韓國政黨承諾在選票競選中使用美國比特幣 ETF

Past Bitcoin ‘halving events’, have ushered in a bull run in prices, due to this overnight reduction in supply. “However, this halving iteration is different as the ‘supply shock’ and will be coinciding with a massive surge in institutional demand driven by spot BTC ETFs," said Parth Chaturvedi, Investments Lead, CoinSwitch Ventures.

由於隔夜供應減少，過去的比特幣「減半事件」引發了價格牛市。 CoinSwitch Ventures 投資主管 Parth Chaturvedi 表示：“然而，這次減半迭代與‘供應衝擊’不同，並將與現貨 BTC ETF 驅動的機構需求大幅飆升同時發生。”

Should you invest?

Experts believe that the crypto market is expected to go through volatility amid the halving event.

應該投資嗎？專家認為，在減半事件中，加密貨幣市場預計將經歷波動。

“It is important to note that nations such as India which spearheaded the G20 summit and declared crypto regulatory framework for all nations in the group to be mandated by 2025, as well as the USA are both headed for their respective elections which could be pivotal for their market prospects as well as Bitcoin prices. This could lead to some turbulence in prices in the crypto market," Menon at WazirX added.

「值得注意的是，印度等國家率先召開了 G20 峰會，並宣佈到 2025 年為該集團所有國家強制實施加密貨幣監管框架，而美國也都即將舉行各自的選舉，這可能對他們的市場前景以及比特幣價格。這可能會導致加密貨幣市場的價格出現一些波動。」WazirX 的 Menon 補充道。

Also read: Bitcoin surge: Why should you still not invest in cryptos? These are 7 key reasons

另請閱讀：比特幣激增：為什麼你還不應該投資加密貨幣？這是7個關鍵原因

He further added, “However, with the demand supply dynamics of Bitcoin poised to undergo a major overhaul with 450 Bitcoins minted a day and 10,000 bought by ETFs, prices could see a significant surge. The flow of institutional money in ETFs has already boosted the market sentiment and improved BTC market cap. Investors should consider these factors before investing in Bitcoin before the halving."

他進一步補充道，「然而，隨著比特幣的供需動態即將發生重大調整，每天鑄造 450 枚比特幣，ETF 購買 10,000 枚比特幣，價格可能會大幅上漲。機構資金流入ETF已經提振了市場情緒並提高了BTC市值。投資者在減半之前投資比特幣之前應該考慮這些因素。”

Experts further suggest investors to remain vigilant and closely monitor the digital asset. “Investors are urged to maintain a vigilant stance, monitoring the unfolding narrative surrounding the Bitcoin Halving closely," Gupta at CoinDCX added.

專家進一步建議投資人保持警惕並密切關注數位資產。 CoinDCX 的古普塔補充說：“敦促投資者保持警惕，密切關注圍繞比特幣減半的事態發展。”

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