尽管市场波动，比特币 2024 年仍将飙升 50%，预计将发生减半事件

The digital asset has seen a roughly 50 per cent increase in value this year, despite experiencing a decline from its all-time high of $73,798 reached on March 14th. The surge witnessed this year is attributed to the approval of bitcoin ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in January, along with anticipations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.

尽管该数字资产的价值较 3 月 14 日达到的历史高点 73,798 美元有所下降，但今年的价值仍增长了约 50%。今年的飙升归因于美国证券交易委员会在一月份批准了比特币 ETF，以及美联储降息的预期。

Also read: Cryptocurrencies are rallying again, but concerns remain

另请阅读：加密货币再次反弹，但担忧依然存在

As the 2024 Bitcoin halving event draws near, speculation arises regarding the potential for history to repeat itself within the market.

随着 2024 年比特币减半事件的临近，市场上出现了关于历史可能重演的猜测。

What does bitcoin halving mean?

Bitcoins were conceived by the pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto with a capped supply of 21 million tokens in mind. Within its fundamental blockchain framework, halving occurs to adjust the code, decreasing the pace of new token creation. The introduction of new coins into the system is contingent upon miners successfully solving intricate mathematical puzzles to construct the blockchain and earn rewards, denominated in bitcoins. These rewards undergo halving every four years subsequent to the addition of 210,000 new tokens to the system.

比特币减半意味着什么？ 比特币是由化名创造者中本聪设想的，其供应上限为 2100 万枚。在其基本区块链框架内，减半是为了调整代码，从而降低新代币创建的速度。将新硬币引入系统取决于矿工成功解决复杂的数学难题以构建区块链并获得以比特币计价的奖励。在向系统添加 210,000 个新代币后，这些奖励每四年减半。

The most recent 'halving' occurred on May 11, 2020, resulting in a 12 percent increase in prices during the subsequent week. This month marks the fourth occurrence of such an event since 2012, with the reward diminishing from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins per 10 minutes. Initially, in 2009, miners were rewarded with 50 bitcoins every 10 minutes.

最近一次“减半”发生在 2020 年 5 月 11 日，导致接下来一周价格上涨 12%。本月是自 2012 年以来第四次发生此类事件，奖励从每 10 分钟 6.25 比特币减少到 3.125 比特币。最初，2009 年，矿工每 10 分钟获得 50 个比特币奖励。

Also read: Bitcoin gained 150% in FY24, to remain in positive trajectory in FY25: Experts

另请阅读：专家指出，比特币在 24 财年上涨了 150%，在 25 财年保持积极的轨迹

It is anticipated that this process will conclude once 21 million tokens have been mined, with projections suggesting this milestone will likely be reached around the year 2140.

预计一旦开采出 2100 万个代币，这一过程就会结束，预计这一里程碑可能会在 2140 年左右达到。

Will bitcoin prices surge post halving?

Bitcoin Halving events historically herald significant price increases attributed to reduced supply and heightened scarcity. According to Sumit Gupta, co-founder, CoinDCX, this upcoming halving, stands distinct from its predecessors, propelled by a confluence of unique factors poised to reshape market dynamics.

比特币价格会在减半后飙升吗？从历史上看，比特币减半事件预示着由于供应减少和稀缺性加剧而导致的价格大幅上涨。 CoinDCX 联合创始人苏米特·古普塔 (Sumit Gupta) 表示，即将到来的减半与之前的减半截然不同，这是由一系列独特因素共同推动的，这些因素将重塑市场动态。

However, market experts are skeptical that BTC might go under significant surge. “If historical patterns are to be followed, the prices of BTC might not undergo a significant surge before two months post halving. However, Bitcoin has already defied that by reaching its all time high before the halving, for the first time ever," Rajagopal Menon, VP, WazirX, told Livemint.

然而，市场专家对比特币是否会大幅上涨表示怀疑。 “如果遵循历史规律，比特币价格在减半后两个月内可能不会出现大幅上涨。然而，比特币已经挑战了这一点，在减半之前首次达到历史新高，”WazirX 副总裁 Rajagopal Menon 告诉 Livemint。

Also read: South Korean Party Pledges Access to US Bitcoin ETFs in Race for Votes

另请阅读：韩国政党承诺在选票竞选中使用美国比特币 ETF

Past Bitcoin ‘halving events’, have ushered in a bull run in prices, due to this overnight reduction in supply. “However, this halving iteration is different as the ‘supply shock’ and will be coinciding with a massive surge in institutional demand driven by spot BTC ETFs," said Parth Chaturvedi, Investments Lead, CoinSwitch Ventures.

由于隔夜供应减少，过去的比特币“减半事件”引发了价格牛市。 CoinSwitch Ventures 投资主管 Parth Chaturvedi 表示：“然而，这次减半迭代与‘供应冲击’不同，并且将与现货 BTC ETF 驱动的机构需求大幅飙升同时发生。”

Should you invest?

Experts believe that the crypto market is expected to go through volatility amid the halving event.

应该投资吗？专家认为，在减半事件中，加密货币市场预计将经历波动。

“It is important to note that nations such as India which spearheaded the G20 summit and declared crypto regulatory framework for all nations in the group to be mandated by 2025, as well as the USA are both headed for their respective elections which could be pivotal for their market prospects as well as Bitcoin prices. This could lead to some turbulence in prices in the crypto market," Menon at WazirX added.

“值得注意的是，印度等国家率先召开了 G20 峰会，并宣布到 2025 年为该集团所有国家强制实施加密货币监管框架，而美国也都即将举行各自的选举，这可能对他们的市场前景以及比特币价格。这可能会导致加密货币市场的价格出现一些波动。”WazirX 的 Menon 补充道。

Also read: Bitcoin surge: Why should you still not invest in cryptos? These are 7 key reasons

另请阅读：比特币激增：为什么你还不应该投资加密货币？这是7个关键原因

He further added, “However, with the demand supply dynamics of Bitcoin poised to undergo a major overhaul with 450 Bitcoins minted a day and 10,000 bought by ETFs, prices could see a significant surge. The flow of institutional money in ETFs has already boosted the market sentiment and improved BTC market cap. Investors should consider these factors before investing in Bitcoin before the halving."

他进一步补充道，“然而，随着比特币的供需动态即将发生重大调整，每天铸造 450 枚比特币，ETF 购买 10,000 枚比特币，价格可能会大幅上涨。机构资金流入ETF已经提振了市场情绪并提高了BTC市值。投资者在减半之前投资比特币之前应该考虑这些因素。”

Experts further suggest investors to remain vigilant and closely monitor the digital asset. “Investors are urged to maintain a vigilant stance, monitoring the unfolding narrative surrounding the Bitcoin Halving closely," Gupta at CoinDCX added.

专家进一步建议投资者保持警惕并密切关注数字资产。 CoinDCX 的古普塔补充道：“敦促投资者保持警惕，密切关注围绕比特币减半的事态发展。”

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