比特幣減半前暴跌，公債殖利率飆升

在比特幣減半的預期中，加密貨幣專家 Luke Lango 建議採取謹慎態度，建議投資者等待 MACD 指標看漲交叉後再買入。儘管最近價格下跌，但歷史數據顯示減半後大幅增長，典型的減半前拋售隨後是盤整期，並在事件發生後兩個月大幅上漲。而10年期公債殖利率飆升至4.67%，為去年11月以來的最高水平，可能會影響股價和降息時機。

Bitcoin Slumps Amidst Halving Speculation and Rising Treasury Yields

投機減半和公債殖利率上升，比特幣暴跌

In the midst of the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event, the cryptocurrency has suffered a significant downturn, plummeting to nearly $60,000 over the weekend. While the market has since rebounded to hover around $62,700, it remains approximately 15% below its recent peak in March. This sudden decline has raised questions among investors regarding the viability of Bitcoin as a lucrative investment at this time.

在備受期待的比特幣減半事件中，加密貨幣遭遇了大幅下滑，週末暴跌至近 6 萬美元。儘管此後市場反彈至 62,700 美元左右，但仍比 3 月的近期高峰低約 15%。這種突然的下跌引發了投資者對比特幣作為一項利潤豐厚的投資的可行性的質疑。

The Halving Conundrum

減半難題

The approaching Bitcoin halving event, anticipated within the next week, has played a significant role in the market's recent volatility. During this event, the reward granted to Bitcoin miners for verifying transactions will be cut in half, a mechanism designed to control the cryptocurrency's inflation rate. Historically, halving events have been bullish for Bitcoin's price, as they reduce the supply of available coins.

預計下週即將到來的比特幣減半事件在市場的近期波動中發揮了重要作用。在此事件期間，比特幣礦工驗證交易的獎勵將減少一半，這是一種旨在控制加密貨幣通貨膨脹率的機制。從歷史上看，減半事件對比特幣的價格有利，因為它們減少了可用硬幣的供應。

Historical Precedents

歷史先例

According to Luke Lango, an acclaimed crypto expert, the pre-halving downtrend observed in Bitcoin's price is consistent with historical patterns. In both the second and third Bitcoin "boom cycles," the cryptocurrency experienced a surge in the months leading up to the halving, followed by a sharp sell-off in the weeks preceding the event.

著名加密專家盧克·蘭戈表示，比特幣價格減半前的下降趨勢與歷史模式一致。在比特幣的第二個和第三個「繁榮週期」中，加密貨幣在減半前的幾個月經歷了飆升，隨後在減半前幾週經歷了大幅拋售。

The Case for Buying

購買理由

Despite the current weakness, Lango believes the pre-halving crash presents a compelling opportunity for investors. However, he advises against immediate purchases, emphasizing the need to monitor the market for a "green flag" signal before entering a position.

儘管目前表現疲軟，蘭戈認為減半前的崩盤為投資者提供了一個令人信服的機會。不過，他建議不要立即購買，並強調在建倉之前需要監控市場是否出現「綠旗」訊號。

Lango's "buy" trigger is derived from Bitcoin's Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) Indicator. When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is considered a bullish crossover, potentially indicating a buy signal. Conversely, when the MACD line falls below the signal line, it is considered a bearish crossover.

Lango 的「買入」觸發器源自比特幣的移動平均收斂/發散（MACD）指標。當 MACD 線穿過訊號線時，被視為看漲交叉，可能表示買入訊號。相反，當MACD線跌破訊號線時，則視為看跌交叉。

Currently, Bitcoin's MACD indicator is not signaling a bullish crossover, suggesting a greater likelihood of short-term weakness. Nevertheless, Lango urges investors to remain vigilant and prepare to act once the signal appears.

目前，比特幣的 MACD 指標並未發出看漲交叉訊號，顯示短期疲軟的可能性更大。儘管如此，蘭戈敦促投資者保持警惕，並準備在信號出現後採取行動。

Post-Halving Performance

減半後表現

Historically, the three prior Bitcoin halvings have been highly bullish for its price, with significant gains recorded in the months following each event. However, a steep correction typically occurs around the halving itself, as early investors take profits.

從歷史上看，比特幣之前的三次減半對其價格都非常看好，每次減半後的幾個月都錄得顯著上漲。然而，隨著早期投資者獲利了結，減半前後通常會發生急劇調整。

Impact of Rising Treasury Yields

美國國債殖利率上升的影響

Amidst the Bitcoin halving speculation, the 10-year Treasury yield has been steadily rising, reaching 4.67% as of writing. This surge has significant implications for the global economy and investment markets, including stocks. Higher Treasury yields increase discount rates used by analysts to calculate a stock's value, typically leading to lower stock prices. Additionally, higher yields entice investors to move their funds away from stocks into bonds, further pressuring stock prices.

在比特幣減半的猜測中，10年期公債殖利率穩定上升，截至發稿時達到4.67%。這種飆升對全球經濟和投資市場（包括股票）有重大影響。較高的國債殖利率會增加分析師用來計算股票價值的折現率，通常會導致股價下跌。此外，較高的殖利率吸引投資人將資金從股票轉向債券，進一步對股價構成壓力。

Federal Reserve's Response

聯準會的回應

The rising 10-year Treasury yield has raised questions about the Federal Reserve's timing for interest rate cuts. Higher borrowing costs, a byproduct of higher interest rates, tend to curb inflation by slowing investment and spending. However, higher bond yields can also exert a similar tightening effect on the economy.

10年期公債殖利率的上升引發了人們對聯準會降息時機的質疑。較高的借貸成本是高利率的副產品，往往會透過減緩投資和支出來抑制通貨膨脹。然而，較高的債券殖利率也會對經濟產生類似的緊縮效應。

Louis Navellier, a legendary investor, suggests that the surging Treasury yield may prompt the Fed to coordinate a rate cut with the European Central Bank (ECB), which plans to cut rates in June. However, Charles Sizemore, Chief Investment Strategist at The Freeport Society, believes rate cuts will not occur until after the presidential election, potentially leading to a decline in President Joe Biden's re-election chances and further stock market volatility.

傳奇投資者Louis Navellier表示，美國公債殖利率飆升可能促使聯準會與歐洲央行(ECB)協調降息，歐洲央行計畫在6月降息。不過，自由港協會首席投資策略師查爾斯·塞茲莫爾認為，降息要到總統大選之後才會發生，這可能會導致喬·拜登總統連任機會下降，並導致股市進一步波動。

Trading in Uncertain Times

不確定時期的交易

Despite market volatility and uncertainty, Jonathan Rose, a 20-year market veteran, offers a valuable resource for investors through his free livestream, Masters in Trading: Live. The daily livestream provides market analysis, potential trade setups, and a "Trade of the Day," empowering investors to navigate the markets with expert guidance.

儘管市場波動和不確定性，喬納森·羅斯（Jonathan Rose），20 年的市場資深人士，透過他的免費直播“交易大師：直播”為投資者提供了寶貴的資源。每日直播提供市場分析、潛在交易設定和“當日交易”，使投資者能夠在專家指導下駕馭市場。

As the Bitcoin halving and rising Treasury yields continue to shape market dynamics, investors are encouraged to monitor these developments closely and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.

隨著比特幣減半和國債殖利率上升繼續影響市場動態，我們鼓勵投資者密切關注這些事態發展，並在做出任何投資決定之前尋求專業建議。