比特币减半前暴跌，国债收益率飙升

在比特币减半事件的预期中，加密货币专家 Luke Lango 建议采取谨慎态度，建议投资者等待 MACD 指标看涨交叉后再买入。尽管最近价格下跌，但历史数据显示减半后大幅增长，典型的减半前抛售随后是盘整期，并在事件发生后两个月大幅上涨。而10年期国债收益率飙升至4.67%，为去年11月以来的最高水平，可能会影响股价和降息时机。

Bitcoin Slumps Amidst Halving Speculation and Rising Treasury Yields

投机减半和国债收益率上升，比特币暴跌

In the midst of the highly anticipated Bitcoin halving event, the cryptocurrency has suffered a significant downturn, plummeting to nearly $60,000 over the weekend. While the market has since rebounded to hover around $62,700, it remains approximately 15% below its recent peak in March. This sudden decline has raised questions among investors regarding the viability of Bitcoin as a lucrative investment at this time.

在备受期待的比特币减半事件中，加密货币遭遇了大幅下滑，周末暴跌至近 6 万美元。尽管此后市场反弹至 62,700 美元左右，但仍比 3 月份的近期峰值低约 15%。这种突然的下跌引发了投资者对比特币作为一项利润丰厚的投资的可行性的质疑。

The Halving Conundrum

减半难题

The approaching Bitcoin halving event, anticipated within the next week, has played a significant role in the market's recent volatility. During this event, the reward granted to Bitcoin miners for verifying transactions will be cut in half, a mechanism designed to control the cryptocurrency's inflation rate. Historically, halving events have been bullish for Bitcoin's price, as they reduce the supply of available coins.

预计下周即将到来的比特币减半事件在市场近期的波动中发挥了重要作用。在此事件期间，比特币矿工验证交易的奖励将减少一半，这是一种旨在控制加密货币通货膨胀率的机制。从历史上看，减半事件对比特币的价格有利，因为它们减少了可用硬币的供应。

Historical Precedents

历史先例

According to Luke Lango, an acclaimed crypto expert, the pre-halving downtrend observed in Bitcoin's price is consistent with historical patterns. In both the second and third Bitcoin "boom cycles," the cryptocurrency experienced a surge in the months leading up to the halving, followed by a sharp sell-off in the weeks preceding the event.

著名加密专家卢克·兰戈表示，比特币价格减半前的下降趋势与历史模式一致。在比特币的第二个和第三个“繁荣周期”中，加密货币在减半前的几个月经历了飙升，随后在减半前几周经历了大幅抛售。

The Case for Buying

购买理由

Despite the current weakness, Lango believes the pre-halving crash presents a compelling opportunity for investors. However, he advises against immediate purchases, emphasizing the need to monitor the market for a "green flag" signal before entering a position.

尽管目前表现疲软，但兰戈认为减半前的崩盘为投资者提供了一个令人信服的机会。不过，他建议不要立即购买，并强调在建仓之前需要监控市场是否出现“绿旗”信号。

Lango's "buy" trigger is derived from Bitcoin's Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) Indicator. When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is considered a bullish crossover, potentially indicating a buy signal. Conversely, when the MACD line falls below the signal line, it is considered a bearish crossover.

Lango 的“买入”触发器源自比特币的移动平均收敛/发散（MACD）指标。当 MACD 线穿过信号线时，被视为看涨交叉，可能表明买入信号。相反，当MACD线跌破信号线时，则被视为看跌交叉。

Currently, Bitcoin's MACD indicator is not signaling a bullish crossover, suggesting a greater likelihood of short-term weakness. Nevertheless, Lango urges investors to remain vigilant and prepare to act once the signal appears.

目前，比特币的 MACD 指标并未发出看涨交叉信号，表明短期疲软的可能性更大。尽管如此，兰戈敦促投资者保持警惕，并准备在信号出现后采取行动。

Post-Halving Performance

减半后表现

Historically, the three prior Bitcoin halvings have been highly bullish for its price, with significant gains recorded in the months following each event. However, a steep correction typically occurs around the halving itself, as early investors take profits.

从历史上看，比特币之前的三次减半对其价格都非常看好，每次减半后的几个月都录得显着上涨。然而，随着早期投资者获利了结，减半前后通常会发生急剧调整。

Impact of Rising Treasury Yields

美国国债收益率上升的影响

Amidst the Bitcoin halving speculation, the 10-year Treasury yield has been steadily rising, reaching 4.67% as of writing. This surge has significant implications for the global economy and investment markets, including stocks. Higher Treasury yields increase discount rates used by analysts to calculate a stock's value, typically leading to lower stock prices. Additionally, higher yields entice investors to move their funds away from stocks into bonds, further pressuring stock prices.

在比特币减半的猜测中，10年期国债收益率稳步上升，截至发稿时达到4.67%。这种飙升对全球经济和投资市场（包括股票）产生重大影响。较高的国债收益率会增加分析师用来计算股票价值的贴现率，通常会导致股价下跌。此外，较高的收益率吸引投资者将资金从股票转向债券，进一步对股价构成压力。

Federal Reserve's Response

美联储的回应

The rising 10-year Treasury yield has raised questions about the Federal Reserve's timing for interest rate cuts. Higher borrowing costs, a byproduct of higher interest rates, tend to curb inflation by slowing investment and spending. However, higher bond yields can also exert a similar tightening effect on the economy.

10年期国债收益率的上升引发了人们对美联储降息时机的质疑。较高的借贷成本是高利率的副产品，往往会通过减缓投资和支出来抑制通货膨胀。然而，较高的债券收益率也会对经济产生类似的紧缩效应。

Louis Navellier, a legendary investor, suggests that the surging Treasury yield may prompt the Fed to coordinate a rate cut with the European Central Bank (ECB), which plans to cut rates in June. However, Charles Sizemore, Chief Investment Strategist at The Freeport Society, believes rate cuts will not occur until after the presidential election, potentially leading to a decline in President Joe Biden's re-election chances and further stock market volatility.

传奇投资者Louis Navellier表示，美国国债收益率飙升可能促使美联储与欧洲央行(ECB)协调降息，欧洲央行计划于6月降息。不过，自由港协会首席投资策略师查尔斯·塞兹莫尔认为，降息要到总统大选之后才会发生，这可能会导致乔·拜登总统连任机会下降，并导致股市进一步波动。

Trading in Uncertain Times

不确定时期的交易

Despite market volatility and uncertainty, Jonathan Rose, a 20-year market veteran, offers a valuable resource for investors through his free livestream, Masters in Trading: Live. The daily livestream provides market analysis, potential trade setups, and a "Trade of the Day," empowering investors to navigate the markets with expert guidance.

尽管市场波动和不确定性，乔纳森·罗斯（Jonathan Rose），20 年的市场资深人士，通过他的免费直播“交易大师：直播”为投资者提供了宝贵的资源。每日直播提供市场分析、潜在交易设置和“当日交易”，使投资者能够在专家指导下驾驭市场。

As the Bitcoin halving and rising Treasury yields continue to shape market dynamics, investors are encouraged to monitor these developments closely and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions.

随着比特币减半和国债收益率上升继续影响市场动态，我们鼓励投资者密切关注这些事态发展，并在做出任何投资决定之前寻求专业建议。