比特幣的量子困境：2026 年是最後期限嗎？

時鍾正在滴答作響！專家警告稱，到 2026 年，比特幣將面臨量子計算威脅。加密世界準備好迎接 Q-Day 了嗎？

Bitcoin's Quantum Quandary: A 2026 Deadline?

比特幣的量子困境：2026 年是最後期限嗎？

The looming threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin is generating buzz in the crypto space. With experts suggesting a potential 'Q-Day' as early as 2026, the race is on to develop quantum-resistant solutions. Will Bitcoin be ready?

量子計算對比特幣迫在眉睫的威脅正在加密貨幣領域引起熱議。專家建議最早可能在 2026 年舉辦“Q-Day”，開發抗量子解決方案的競賽已經開始。比特幣準備好了嗎？

The Quantum Threat: A Ticking Time Bomb?

量子威脅：定時炸彈？

Market analyst Charles Edwards is sounding the alarm. He believes the crypto community needs to stop downplaying the quantum computing threat and find a solution by 2026. According to Edwards, failing to address this issue could prevent Bitcoin from ever reaching its projected $1 million valuation.

市場分析師查爾斯·愛德華茲拉響了警報。他認為加密社區需要停止淡化量子計算威脅，並在 2026 年之前找到解決方案。 Edwards 認為，如果不解決這個問題，比特幣可能無法達到其預計的 100 萬美元估值。

Edwards points out that some large Bitcoin holders are claiming the risk is “10+ years out,” possibly to enable short-term BTC price pumps. He emphasized the urgency of the situation.

愛德華茲指出，一些大型比特幣持有者聲稱這種風險是“10多年後”的，可能是為了實現短期比特幣價格上漲。他強調了局勢的緊迫性。

Google's Quantum AI Researcher Weighs In

谷歌的量子人工智能研究員參與其中

Craig Gidney, a Quantum AI researcher at Google, has consistently warned that Bitcoin’s encryption is at risk. He notes the rapid advancements in quantum computing and estimates that breaking RSA encryption now requires significantly fewer quantum resources than previously thought. He revised the previous estimation from 20 million qubits and eight hours of computation to fewer than one million noisy qubits.

谷歌量子人工智能研究員克雷格·吉德尼（Craig Gidney）一直警告說，比特幣的加密面臨風險。他注意到量子計算的快速進步，並估計破解 RSA 加密現在所需的量子資源比以前想像的要少得多。他將之前的估計從 2000 萬個量子位和 8 小時的計算修改為少於 100 萬個噪聲量子位。

Trading Strategies in the Face of Quantum Uncertainty

面對量子不確定性的交易策略

The potential arrival of Q-Day injects volatility into BTC markets. Traders are weighing the long-term risks against short-term gains. Historically, discussions around tech threats have led to temporary dips in BTC prices. Traders might consider hedging strategies, such as diversifying into quantum-secure altcoins.

Q-Day 的潛在到來給 BTC 市場帶來了波動。交易員正在權衡長期風險與短期收益。從歷史上看，圍繞技術威脅的討論導致比特幣價格暫時下跌。交易者可能會考慮對沖策略，例如多元化投資量子安全的山寨幣。

Savvy traders can capitalize on market reactions by focusing on verified developments and avoiding unverified speculation. Employing options strategies on BTC, such as buying puts for downside protection while holding core positions, could be a strategy. Diversifying into stocks in quantum computing firms might indirectly boost crypto innovation.

精明的交易者可以通過關注經過驗證的發展並避免未經驗證的投機來利用市場反應。對比特幣採用期權策略，例如在持有核心頭寸的同時買入看跌期權以進行下行保護，可能是一種策略。多元化投資量子計算公司的股票可能會間接促進加密貨幣創新。

The Big Picture: What Does This Mean for Bitcoin?

大局：這對比特幣意味著什麼？

The quantum threat is real, and the timeline is shrinking. While some downplay the risk, experts like Edwards and Gidney urge immediate action. The crypto community must prioritize developing and implementing quantum-resistant upgrades to safeguard Bitcoin's future.

量子威脅是真實存在的，而且時間正在縮短。儘管有些人淡化了這一風險，但愛德華茲和吉德尼等專家敦促立即採取行動。加密社區必須優先開發和實施抗量子升級，以保障比特幣的未來。

A Humorous Takeaway

幽默的外賣

So, will Bitcoin survive the quantum onslaught? Only time will tell. But one thing's for sure: if quantum computers do crack Bitcoin, at least we'll have a good excuse for why we're not all millionaires yet. Until then, keep calm and hodl on... or maybe invest in a quantum-resistant shield. Just kidding (mostly)!

那麼，比特幣能在量子攻擊中倖存下來嗎？只有時間才能證明一切。但有一件事是肯定的：如果量子計算機確實破解了比特幣，至少我們會有一個很好的藉口來解釋為什麼我們還不是百萬富翁。在那之前，請保持冷靜並繼續……或者投資一個抗量子防護罩。只是開玩笑（大部分）！