比特幣、量子計算和風險：駕馭後量子格局

專家警告說，比特幣需要為後量子未來做好準備。存在哪些風險以及正在採取哪些措施？

Bitcoin, Quantum Computing, and Risk: Navigating the Post-Quantum Landscape

比特幣、量子計算和風險：駕馭後量子格局

Bitcoin's future faces a looming threat: quantum computing. Experts warn of vulnerabilities that could put a significant portion of Bitcoin at risk. Let's break down the potential impact and what's being done to secure the network.

比特幣的未來面臨著迫在眉睫的威脅：量子計算。專家警告說，存在可能使很大一部分比特幣面臨風險的漏洞。讓我們詳細分析一下潛在的影響以及為保護網絡安全而採取的措施。

The Quantum Threat to Bitcoin

比特幣的量子威脅

The buzz around quantum computing isn't just theoretical anymore. Recent advancements are raising concerns about Bitcoin's long-term security. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, highlighted a Deloitte study suggesting that a substantial portion of Bitcoin – around 25% – could be vulnerable to quantum attacks. This risk stems from the potential for quantum computers to break the elliptic curve digital signature algorithm (ECDSA) that secures Bitcoin transactions.

圍繞量子計算的討論不再只是理論上的。最近的進展引發了人們對比特幣長期安全性的擔憂。 Capriole Investments 創始人 Charles Edwards 強調了德勤的一項研究，該研究表明比特幣的很大一部分（約 25%）可能容易受到量子攻擊。這種風險源於量子計算機有可能破壞保護比特幣交易的橢圓曲線數字簽名算法（ECDSA）。

Bitcoin wallets use public and private keys for transactions. While it's nearly impossible for regular computers to figure out a private key from a public key, quantum computers, using Shor's algorithm, could theoretically do just that. If this happens, hackers could seize control of coins linked to those keys.

比特幣錢包使用公鑰和私鑰進行交易。雖然普通計算機幾乎不可能從公鑰中找出私鑰，但使用肖爾算法的量子計算機理論上可以做到這一點。如果發生這種情況，黑客就可以控制與這些密鑰相關的代幣。

A Look Back: Bitcoin's Vulnerable Past

回顧：比特幣脆弱的過去

Deloitte's research traces this vulnerability back to Bitcoin's early days. The original "pay to public key" (P2PK) system made public keys visible on the blockchain, creating a weakness. Although a newer system, "pay to public key hash" (P2PKH), hides the public key, reusing addresses still exposes the key and creates an entry point for quantum attacks. This leaves a considerable amount of Bitcoin, particularly coins from the early days that haven't moved, at risk.

德勤的研究將這一漏洞追溯到比特幣的早期。最初的“付費公鑰”（P2PK）系統使公鑰在區塊鏈上可見，從而產生了一個弱點。儘管較新的系統“支付公鑰哈希”（P2PKH）隱藏了公鑰，但重用地址仍然會暴露密鑰並為量子攻擊創建入口點。這使得相當數量的比特幣，尤其是早期尚未流通的比特幣面臨風險。

Quantum Progress: Closer Than We Think?

量子進步：比我們想像的更接近？

Quantum computing is rapidly evolving. Recent milestones, like Quantinuum achieving high qubit gate fidelity and RIKEN and Fujitsu developing a 256-qubit processor, demonstrate significant progress. While a quantum computer capable of breaking Bitcoin's encryption is still years away, these advancements highlight the need for proactive measures. The 2025 Nobel Prize in physics being awarded to pioneers in quantum computing underscores the growing importance and potential of this technology.

量子計算正在迅速發展。最近的里程碑，例如 Quantinuum 實現高量子位門保真度以及 RIKEN 和 Fujitsu 開發 256 量子位處理器，都展示了重大進展。雖然能夠破解比特幣加密的量子計算機還需要數年時間，但這些進步凸顯了採取主動措施的必要性。 2025 年諾貝爾物理學獎授予量子計算先驅，突顯了這項技術日益增長的重要性和潛力。

Steve Tippeconnic's experiment using IBM's quantum platform to solve a small elliptic curve problem, marks a pivotal moment. It demonstrated practical control over quantum hardware, bringing the theoretical risk closer to reality.

Steve Tippeconnic 使用 IBM 量子平台解決小型橢圓曲線問題的實驗標誌著一個關鍵時刻。它展示了對量子硬件的實際控制，使理論風險更接近現實。

Preparing for a Quantum-Resistant Future

為抗量子的未來做好準備

The race is on to develop post-quantum cryptography. Developers are experimenting with new algorithms that could replace current systems through network upgrades. A recent study estimated that migrating Bitcoin to a quantum-safe signature scheme could take a significant amount of coordinated downtime, emphasizing the urgency of starting this process sooner rather than later.

開發後量子密碼學的競賽正在進行。開發人員正在嘗試新的算法，這些算法可以通過網絡升級來取代當前的系統。最近的一項研究估計，將比特幣遷移到量子安全簽名方案可能需要大量協調停機時間，強調了儘早啟動這一過程的緊迫性。

Even BlackRock acknowledges quantum computing as a potential material threat in its Bitcoin ETF filings, and Solana's co-founder suggests replacing Bitcoin's cryptography by 2030. These concerns are spreading beyond the scientific community, pushing for timely action.

就連 BlackRock 在其比特幣 ETF 文件中也承認量子計算是一個潛在的重大威脅，Solana 的聯合創始人建議到 2030 年更換比特幣的密碼學。這些擔憂正在蔓延到科學界之外，促使人們及時採取行動。

What About the US Government and Bitcoin?

美國政府和比特幣怎麼樣？

Interestingly, the US government is actively planning to increase its Bitcoin holdings and take a leading role in global crypto adoption. This includes building a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. While seemingly unrelated to quantum risk, this move signals a long-term view of Bitcoin's importance, suggesting that securing the network against future threats like quantum computing will be a priority.

有趣的是，美國政府正在積極計劃增加其比特幣持有量，並在全球加密貨幣採用方面發揮主導作用。這包括建立戰略比特幣儲備。雖然看似與量子風險無關，但此舉標誌著對比特幣重要性的長期看法，表明保護網絡免受量子計算等未來威脅將是當務之急。

The Bottom Line

底線

While Bitcoin isn't facing an immediate quantum threat, the time to prepare is now. Continuous improvements in quantum computing mean the community needs to act fast. Developing quantum-resistant solutions is crucial for ensuring Bitcoin's long-term viability as a secure and decentralized digital currency. It's a race against the clock, but with proactive measures, Bitcoin can stay ahead of the curve.

雖然比特幣並未面臨直接的量子威脅，但現在是做好準備的時候了。量子計算的持續改進意味著社區需要快速採取行動。開發抗量子解決方案對於確保比特幣作為安全、去中心化數字貨幣的長期生存能力至關重要。這是一場與時間的賽跑，但通過積極採取措施，比特幣可以保持領先地位。

So, keep your eye on quantum computing, folks! It's not just sci-fi anymore; it's shaping the future of Bitcoin. Who knows, maybe one day your Bitcoin will be quantum-proofed by Uncle Sam himself. Now that's what I call progress!

所以，伙計們，請密切關注量子計算！這不再只是科幻小說；而是科幻小說。它正在塑造比特幣的未來。誰知道呢，也許有一天你的比特幣將得到山姆大叔本人的量子證明。這就是我所說的進步！