比特币、量子计算和风险：驾驭后量子格局

专家警告说，比特币需要为后量子未来做好准备。存在哪些风险以及正在采取哪些措施？

Bitcoin, Quantum Computing, and Risk: Navigating the Post-Quantum Landscape

比特币、量子计算和风险：驾驭后量子格局

Bitcoin's future faces a looming threat: quantum computing. Experts warn of vulnerabilities that could put a significant portion of Bitcoin at risk. Let's break down the potential impact and what's being done to secure the network.

比特币的未来面临着迫在眉睫的威胁：量子计算。专家警告说，存在可能使很大一部分比特币面临风险的漏洞。让我们详细分析一下潜在的影响以及为保护网络安全而采取的措施。

The Quantum Threat to Bitcoin

比特币的量子威胁

The buzz around quantum computing isn't just theoretical anymore. Recent advancements are raising concerns about Bitcoin's long-term security. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, highlighted a Deloitte study suggesting that a substantial portion of Bitcoin – around 25% – could be vulnerable to quantum attacks. This risk stems from the potential for quantum computers to break the elliptic curve digital signature algorithm (ECDSA) that secures Bitcoin transactions.

围绕量子计算的讨论不再只是理论上的。最近的进展引发了人们对比特币长期安全性的担忧。 Capriole Investments 创始人 Charles Edwards 强调了德勤的一项研究，该研究表明比特币的很大一部分（约 25%）可能容易受到量子攻击。这种风险源于量子计算机有可能破坏保护比特币交易的椭圆曲线数字签名算法（ECDSA）。

Bitcoin wallets use public and private keys for transactions. While it's nearly impossible for regular computers to figure out a private key from a public key, quantum computers, using Shor's algorithm, could theoretically do just that. If this happens, hackers could seize control of coins linked to those keys.

比特币钱包使用公钥和私钥进行交易。虽然普通计算机几乎不可能从公钥中找出私钥，但使用肖尔算法的量子计算机理论上可以做到这一点。如果发生这种情况，黑客就可以控制与这些密钥相关的代币。

A Look Back: Bitcoin's Vulnerable Past

回顾：比特币脆弱的过去

Deloitte's research traces this vulnerability back to Bitcoin's early days. The original "pay to public key" (P2PK) system made public keys visible on the blockchain, creating a weakness. Although a newer system, "pay to public key hash" (P2PKH), hides the public key, reusing addresses still exposes the key and creates an entry point for quantum attacks. This leaves a considerable amount of Bitcoin, particularly coins from the early days that haven't moved, at risk.

德勤的研究将这一漏洞追溯到比特币的早期。最初的“付费公钥”（P2PK）系统使公钥在区块链上可见，从而产生了一个弱点。尽管较新的系统“支付公钥哈希”（P2PKH）隐藏了公钥，但重用地址仍然会暴露密钥并为量子攻击创建入口点。这使得相当数量的比特币，尤其是早期尚未流通的比特币面临风险。

Quantum Progress: Closer Than We Think?

量子进步：比我们想象的更接近？

Quantum computing is rapidly evolving. Recent milestones, like Quantinuum achieving high qubit gate fidelity and RIKEN and Fujitsu developing a 256-qubit processor, demonstrate significant progress. While a quantum computer capable of breaking Bitcoin's encryption is still years away, these advancements highlight the need for proactive measures. The 2025 Nobel Prize in physics being awarded to pioneers in quantum computing underscores the growing importance and potential of this technology.

量子计算正在迅速发展。最近的里程碑，例如 Quantinuum 实现高量子位门保真度以及 RIKEN 和 Fujitsu 开发 256 量子位处理器，都展示了重大进展。虽然能够破解比特币加密的量子计算机还需要数年时间，但这些进步凸显了采取主动措施的必要性。 2025 年诺贝尔物理学奖授予量子计算先驱，突显了这项技术日益增长的重要性和潜力。

Steve Tippeconnic's experiment using IBM's quantum platform to solve a small elliptic curve problem, marks a pivotal moment. It demonstrated practical control over quantum hardware, bringing the theoretical risk closer to reality.

Steve Tippeconnic 使用 IBM 量子平台解决小型椭圆曲线问题的实验标志着一个关键时刻。它展示了对量子硬件的实际控制，使理论风险更接近现实。

Preparing for a Quantum-Resistant Future

为抗量子的未来做好准备

The race is on to develop post-quantum cryptography. Developers are experimenting with new algorithms that could replace current systems through network upgrades. A recent study estimated that migrating Bitcoin to a quantum-safe signature scheme could take a significant amount of coordinated downtime, emphasizing the urgency of starting this process sooner rather than later.

开发后量子密码学的竞赛正在进行。开发人员正在尝试新的算法，这些算法可以通过网络升级来取代当前的系统。最近的一项研究估计，将比特币迁移到量子安全签名方案可能需要大量协调停机时间，强调了尽早启动这一过程的紧迫性。

Even BlackRock acknowledges quantum computing as a potential material threat in its Bitcoin ETF filings, and Solana's co-founder suggests replacing Bitcoin's cryptography by 2030. These concerns are spreading beyond the scientific community, pushing for timely action.

就连 BlackRock 在其比特币 ETF 文件中也承认量子计算是一个潜在的重大威胁，Solana 的联合创始人建议到 2030 年更换比特币的密码学。这些担忧正在蔓延到科学界之外，促使人们及时采取行动。

What About the US Government and Bitcoin?

美国政府和比特币怎么样？

Interestingly, the US government is actively planning to increase its Bitcoin holdings and take a leading role in global crypto adoption. This includes building a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. While seemingly unrelated to quantum risk, this move signals a long-term view of Bitcoin's importance, suggesting that securing the network against future threats like quantum computing will be a priority.

有趣的是，美国政府正在积极计划增加其比特币持有量，并在全球加密货币采用方面发挥主导作用。这包括建立战略比特币储备。虽然看似与量子风险无关，但此举标志着对比特币重要性的长期看法，表明保护网络免受量子计算等未来威胁将是当务之急。

The Bottom Line

底线

While Bitcoin isn't facing an immediate quantum threat, the time to prepare is now. Continuous improvements in quantum computing mean the community needs to act fast. Developing quantum-resistant solutions is crucial for ensuring Bitcoin's long-term viability as a secure and decentralized digital currency. It's a race against the clock, but with proactive measures, Bitcoin can stay ahead of the curve.

虽然比特币并未面临直接的量子威胁，但现在是做好准备的时候了。量子计算的持续改进意味着社区需要快速采取行动。开发抗量子解决方案对于确保比特币作为安全、去中心化数字货币的长期生存能力至关重要。这是一场与时间的赛跑，但通过积极采取措施，比特币可以保持领先地位。

So, keep your eye on quantum computing, folks! It's not just sci-fi anymore; it's shaping the future of Bitcoin. Who knows, maybe one day your Bitcoin will be quantum-proofed by Uncle Sam himself. Now that's what I call progress!

所以，伙计们，请密切关注量子计算！这不再只是科幻小说；而是科幻小说。它正在塑造比特币的未来。谁知道呢，也许有一天你的比特币将得到山姆大叔本人的量子证明。这就是我所说的进步！