分析師表示，減半後比特幣預計將飆升 160%，達到 15 萬美元

Bitcoin (BTC) could rally 160%, hitting $150,000 14 months after the halving takes place, according to analysts’ predictions in the latest edition of the Bitfinex Alpha report.

根據最新版 Bitfinex Alpha 報告中分析師的預測，比特幣 (BTC) 可能會在減半發生 14 個月後上漲 160%，達到 15 萬美元。

Bitfinex used a simplistic and straightforward regression model that projects diminishing returns by analyzing the effects of previous halvings on the price of BTC. However, this model did not consider BTC reaching a new all-time high pre-halving; hence, the cryptocurrency’s post-halving price increase may exceed 160%.

Bitfinex 使用了一個簡單明了的迴歸模型，透過分析先前減半對 BTC 價格的影響來預測收益遞減。然而，模型並未考慮BTC在減半前達到歷史新高；因此，減半後加密貨幣的價格漲幅可能會超過160%。

The Upcoming Halving Event

The halving occurs every four years or after 210,000 blocks and is currently slated for April 20. The mechanism slashes Bitcoin block rewards by 50% and will reduce the current figure from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. It decreases the rate at which new coins are produced to ensure a diminishing supply over time.

即將到來的減半事件每四年或在210,000 個區塊之後減半，目前定於4 月20 日進行。該機制將比特幣區塊獎勵削減50%，並將當前數字從6.25 BTC 減少到3.125 BTC。它降低了新硬幣的生產速度，以確保供應隨著時間的推移而減少。

Historically, bitcoin’s value has increased post-halving due to sustained or increased demand, but the level of growth in this cycle may be different due to the asset recording a new all-time before the event took place for the first time.

從歷史上看，由於需求持續或增加，比特幣的價值在減半後有所增加，但由於該資產在減半事件首次發生之前創下了新的歷史記錄，因此本週期的增長水平可能會有所不同。

Although this factor could be seen as a bullish indicator, analysts said it has also introduced a level of uncertainty into the market dynamics, highlighting the need for a more nuanced understanding of market conditions and their potential impact on Bitcoin’s future price movements.

儘管這一因素可以被視為看漲指標，但分析師表示，它也為市場動態帶來了一定程度的不確定性，凸顯出需要更細緻地了解市場狀況及其對比特幣未來價格走勢的潛在影響。

Bitcoin Could Rally 160%

Bitcoin rose 9,300% from $12 to $1,161, 396 days, or roughly 13 months after the 2012 halving. The asset experienced another dramatic growth in 2017, surging 2,800% from $600 to $20,000 approximately 17 months after the 2016 halving. Three years ago, the effects of the 2020 halving pushed BTC up 700% from $9,000 to $69,000, roughly 11 months after the event.

比特幣可能上漲 160% 2012 年減半後 396 天，約 13 個月，比特幣從 12 美元上漲到 1,161 美元，上漲 9,300%。該資產在 2017 年再次經歷了大幅增長，在 2016 年減半後約 17 個月內從 600 美元飆升至 20,000 美元，飆升 2,800%。三年前，2020 年減半的影響推動 BTC 上漲 ​​700%，從 9,000 美元漲至 69,000 美元，大約在事件發生 11 個月後。

Based on the analysis, BTC is expected to rise 160% within 420 days, or 14 months after the next halving. This offers a guideline for the expectations of Bitcoin’s post-halving market behavior.

根據分析，BTC預計在420天內上漲160%，即下一次減半後的14個月內。這為比特幣減半後市場行為的預期提供了指引。

“This estimation aligns with the observed trend of diminishing percentage increases following each halving event. With a conservative estimate placing the price of BTC at between $57,000 and $65,000 at the time of the halving, a 160 percent price increase would lead to BTC price ranging from approximately $150,000 to $169,000 at the peak of the cycle,” Bitfinex stated.

「這一估計與每次減半事件後觀察到的百分比增加減少的趨勢一致。保守估計，減半時 BTC 的價格在 57,000 美元至 65,000 美元之間，160% 的價格上漲將導致 BTC 價格在周期高峰時達到約 150,000 美元至 169,000 美元。」Bitfinex 表示。

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