分析师表示，减半后比特币预计将飙升 160%，达到 15 万美元

Bitcoin (BTC) could rally 160%, hitting $150,000 14 months after the halving takes place, according to analysts’ predictions in the latest edition of the Bitfinex Alpha report.

根据最新版 Bitfinex Alpha 报告中分析师的预测，比特币 (BTC) 可能会在减半发生 14 个月后上涨 160%，达到 150,000 美元。

Bitfinex used a simplistic and straightforward regression model that projects diminishing returns by analyzing the effects of previous halvings on the price of BTC. However, this model did not consider BTC reaching a new all-time high pre-halving; hence, the cryptocurrency’s post-halving price increase may exceed 160%.

Bitfinex 使用了一种简单明了的回归模型，通过分析之前减半对 BTC 价格的影响来预测收益递减。然而，该模型并未考虑BTC在减半前达到历史新高；因此，减半后加密货币的价格涨幅可能会超过160%。

The Upcoming Halving Event

The halving occurs every four years or after 210,000 blocks and is currently slated for April 20. The mechanism slashes Bitcoin block rewards by 50% and will reduce the current figure from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. It decreases the rate at which new coins are produced to ensure a diminishing supply over time.

即将到来的减半事件每四年或在 210,000 个区块之后减半，目前定于 4 月 20 日进行。该机制将比特币区块奖励削减 50%，并将当前数字从 6.25 BTC 减少到 3.125 BTC。它降低了新硬币的生产速度，以确保供应随着时间的推移而减少。

Historically, bitcoin’s value has increased post-halving due to sustained or increased demand, but the level of growth in this cycle may be different due to the asset recording a new all-time before the event took place for the first time.

从历史上看，由于需求持续或增加，比特币的价值在减半后有所增加，但由于该资产在减半事件首次发生之前创下了新的历史记录，因此本周期的增长水平可能会有所不同。

Although this factor could be seen as a bullish indicator, analysts said it has also introduced a level of uncertainty into the market dynamics, highlighting the need for a more nuanced understanding of market conditions and their potential impact on Bitcoin’s future price movements.

尽管这一因素可以被视为看涨指标，但分析师表示，它也给市场动态带来了一定程度的不确定性，凸显出需要更细致地了解市场状况及其对比特币未来价格走势的潜在影响。

Bitcoin Could Rally 160%

Bitcoin rose 9,300% from $12 to $1,161, 396 days, or roughly 13 months after the 2012 halving. The asset experienced another dramatic growth in 2017, surging 2,800% from $600 to $20,000 approximately 17 months after the 2016 halving. Three years ago, the effects of the 2020 halving pushed BTC up 700% from $9,000 to $69,000, roughly 11 months after the event.

比特币可能上涨 160% 2012 年减半后 396 天，即大约 13 个月，比特币从 12 美元上涨到 1,161 美元，上涨 9,300%。该资产在 2017 年再次经历了大幅增长，在 2016 年减半后约 17 个月内从 600 美元飙升至 20,000 美元，飙升 2,800%。三年前，2020 年减半的影响推动 BTC 上涨 700%，从 9,000 美元涨至 69,000 美元，大约在事件发生 11 个月后。

Based on the analysis, BTC is expected to rise 160% within 420 days, or 14 months after the next halving. This offers a guideline for the expectations of Bitcoin’s post-halving market behavior.

据分析，BTC预计将在420天内上涨160%，即下一次减半后的14个月内。这为比特币减半后市场行为的预期提供了指导。

“This estimation aligns with the observed trend of diminishing percentage increases following each halving event. With a conservative estimate placing the price of BTC at between $57,000 and $65,000 at the time of the halving, a 160 percent price increase would lead to BTC price ranging from approximately $150,000 to $169,000 at the peak of the cycle,” Bitfinex stated.

“这一估计与每次减半事件后观察到的百分比增加减少的趋势一致。保守估计，减半时 BTC 的价格在 57,000 美元至 65,000 美元之间，160% 的价格上涨将导致 BTC 价格在周期高峰时达到约 150,000 美元至 169,000 美元。”Bitfinex 表示。

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