比特幣價格預測：BTC 能否突破 180 萬美元，還是歷史重演？

比特幣愛好者興奮不已，因為一項新的分析表明，如果加密貨幣複製之前牛市的爆炸性收益，它可能會達到前所未有的高度。

Bitcoin enthusiasts are optimistic as a new analysis suggests that the cryptocurrency could reach new heights if it follows the gains of previous bull runs. According to Liam ‘Akiba’ Wright, Bitcoin could reach $1.8 million if it matches the performance of the 2017 bull market. However, historical data suggests a more modest peak around $180,000 this cycle.

比特幣愛好者感到樂觀，因為一項新的分析表明，如果加密貨幣追隨先前牛市的漲幅，可能會達到新的高度。 Liam 'Akiba' Wright 表示，如果比特幣與 2017 年牛市的表現相匹配，其價格可能會達到 180 萬美元。然而，歷史數據表明，本週期的峰值較為溫和，約為 18 萬美元。

Bitcoin has undergone four-year halving cycles, which have led to large price increases. But each cycle has shown a decrease in the magnitude of these gains.

比特幣經歷了四年的減半週期，導致價格大幅上漲。但每個週期都顯示這些收益的幅度有所下降。

This consistent reduction in the rate of price increases with each halving cycle has led analysts to believe that there is a pattern of diminishing returns. Based on this trend, the anticipated price increase for the current cycle is estimated to be around 26-27% of the previous cycle’s growth.

每個減半週期中價格上漲率的持續下降使分析師相信存在收益遞減的模式。根據這一趨勢，本週期的預期價格漲幅預計約為上一周期漲幅的 26-27%。

If Bitcoin continues to follow this trend of diminishing returns, an approximate increase of 195% from the halving price could be expected in this cycle. This forecast places Bitcoin’s potential peak price at around $180,000. While this target may appear conservative in comparison to more bullish predictions, it still represents a significant increase from current levels.

如果比特幣繼續遵循這種收益遞減的趨勢，預計本週期價格將比減半價格上漲約 195%。該預測將比特幣的潛在高峰價格定為 18 萬美元左右。儘管與更樂觀的預測相比，這一目標可能顯得保守，但它仍然比當前水準顯著增加。

The calculation is based on the following logic:

計算基於以下邏輯：

Halving price: $42,000 (approximate price at the time of the last halving in May 2020)

減半價格：42,000美元（2020年5月上次減半時的大致價格）

26-27% of the previous cycle’s growth: 195% (considering the last cycle saw a 720% increase from the halving price)

上一周期成長的26-27%：195%（考慮到上一週期較減半價格成長了720%）

Thus, an increase of approximately 195% from the current halving price could realistically see Bitcoin reach $180,000 in this bull run.

因此，如果比特幣在當前的減半價格基礎上上漲約 195%，那麼在本次牛市中比特幣的價格實際上可能會達到 18 萬美元。

While historical patterns provide a framework for price predictions, the cryptocurrency market is known for its unpredictability. Analysts suggest that if Bitcoin were to deviate from the diminishing returns pattern and see a more robust increase, similar to 50% or even 100% of the last cycle’s percentage increase, prices could soar to:

雖然歷史模式為價格預測提供了框架，但加密貨幣市場以其不可預測性而聞名。分析師表示，如果比特幣擺脫收益遞減模式並出現更強勁的成長，類似於上一個週期百分比成長的 50% 甚至 100%，價格可能會飆升至：

50% of last cycle: 365% increase, leading to a peak price of $365,000.

上一周期的 50%：上漲 365%，價格高峰達到 36.5 萬美元。

100% of last cycle: 720% increase, resulting in a peak price of $620,000.

上一周期的 100%：上漲 720%，導致高峰價格達到 62 萬美元。

However, the most bullish scenario proposed by Wright is that Bitcoin might replicate the massive gains seen in the 2017 bull market. If this were to happen, the cryptocurrency could reach as high as $1.8 million per coin. This optimistic projection would require an unprecedented surge, breaking the current pattern of diminishing returns and attracting a wave of new institutional investment and retail interest.

然而，賴特提出的最樂觀的情景是，比特幣可能會複製 2017 年牛市中的巨大漲幅。如果這種情況發生，每枚加密貨幣的價格可能高達 180 萬美元。這種樂觀的預測將需要前所未有的激增，打破當前回報遞減的模式，並吸引一波新的機構投資和散戶興趣。

Several factors could influence whether Bitcoin will see a price peak closer to the modest $180,000 mark or reach the lofty $1.8 million target. These include the macroeconomic environment, such as inflation and interest rates, the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies, the adoption and use of Bitcoin by institutions and the general public, and the performance of other cryptocurrencies in the market.

有幾個因素可能會影響比特幣的價格高峰是否會接近 18 萬美元大關，還是達到 180 萬美元的崇高目標。其中包括宏觀經濟環境，例如通貨膨脹和利率、加密貨幣的監管環境、機構和公眾對比特幣的採用和使用，以及市場上其他加密貨幣的表現。

As the halving cycle progresses, market participants will closely watch key price levels, whale activity, and macroeconomic indicators to gauge whether Bitcoin can defy historical trends or continue its pattern of diminishing returns.

隨著減半週期的進行，市場參與者將密切關注關鍵價格水準、鯨魚活動和宏觀經濟指標，以衡量比特幣是否能夠挑戰歷史趨勢或繼續其收益遞減的模式。