到 2034 年，比特幣價格會達到 100 萬美元嗎？ Reflexivity Research 共同創辦人講述案例

在過去的七個月裡，比特幣的價格在 73,777 美元至 49,000 美元之間波動，大大抑制了整個市場的情緒。

As the price of Bitcoin has consolidated over the past seven months, ranging between highs of $73,777 and lows of $49,000, market sentiment has been largely impacted by the extended period of sideways price action. In a new analysis, Will Clemente III, co-founder of Reflexivity Research, addresses the prevailing impatience among investors and shares why he still remains bullish on the leading digital asset.

由於比特幣的價格在過去 7 個月裡一直在 73,777 美元的高點和 49,000 美元的低點之間盤整，市場情緒在很大程度上受到長期橫向價格走勢的影響。 Reflexivity Research 聯合創始人 Will Clemente III 在一項新分析中解決了投資者普遍存在的不耐煩情緒，並分享了他仍然看好這一領先數位資產的原因。

According to Clemente, investors should be thinking about the biggest economic trends that will play out over the next decade and adjust their portfolio construction accordingly, either concentrating their highest confidence trend or spreading it across several promising trends based on their potential impact.

克萊門特認為，投資人應該考慮未來十年將出現的最大經濟趨勢，並相應調整其投資組合結構，要么集中其最高信心趨勢，要么根據其潛在影響將其分散到幾個有前途的趨勢中。

His analysis anticipates certain macroeconomic trends. Clemente suggests that investors should consider what the biggest trends are likely to be over the next decade and adjust their portfolio accordingly. This involves either significantly increasing investment in the highest confidence trend or spreading investments across several promising trends based on their potential impact.

他的分析預測了某些宏觀經濟趨勢。克萊門特建議投資人應該考慮未來十年最大的趨勢可能是什麼，並據此調整他們的投資組合。這涉及要么顯著增加對最高信心趨勢的投資，要么根據其潛在影響將投資分散到幾個有前途的趨勢上。

He personally favors focusing on the most probable trend, which he identifies as the ongoing growth of the US deficit and the subsequent need for the government to debase the currency to service this debt. This scenario, according to Clemente, offers a more predictable outcome than other technological trends like AI or space exploration.

他個人傾向於關注最可能的趨勢，即美國赤字持續增長以及政府隨後需要貶值貨幣以償還債務。克萊門特認為，這種情況比人工智慧或太空探索等其他技術趨勢提供了更可預測的結果。

“Compared to other technological trends, the debasement one is pure math. In addition, the way to bet on other technological trends, for example AI or space, isn’t as clear as debasement, given there’s not a way to position for it as clear as Bitcoin,” Clemente writes.

「與其他技術趨勢相比，貶低的是純數學。此外，押注其他技術趨勢（例如人工智慧或太空）的方式並不像貶低那麼明確，因為沒有辦法像比特幣那樣明確定位。

Clemente’s bullish stance on Bitcoin is also reinforced by his analysis of potential capital inflows from sovereign wealth and pension funds. He estimates that if these entities were to allocate just 1% of their capital to Bitcoin, it would result in approximately $460 billion of new investments into BTC, potentially doubling its market cap and driving prices to between $150,000 and $200,000 per Bitcoin.

克萊門特對主權財富和退休基金潛在資本流入的分析也強化了他對比特幣的看漲立場。他估計，如果這些實體僅將1% 的資本分配給比特幣，就會為BTC 帶來約4,600 億美元的新投資，有可能使其市值翻倍，並將比特幣價格推至15 萬至20萬美元之間。

He further speculates on the impact of an increased allocation, suggesting that if concerns over the deficit intensify, these institutions might allocate as much as 3%, translating into $1.4 trillion entering Bitcoin. And the upside potential is even larger. “What happens if it eats into the $10t-$15t of gold’s monetary premium? How about the combined monetary premium in treasuries/equities/real estate that’s currently parked into these assets as SoV to protect against currency debasement?” Clemente pondered.

他進一步推測增加分配的影響，顯示如果對赤字的擔憂加劇，這些機構可能會分配高達 3% 的資金，相當於 1.4 兆美元進入比特幣。而且上升潛力更大。 「如果它蠶食了 10 至 15 美元的黃金貨幣溢價，會發生什麼？目前作為 SoV 存放在這些資產中以防止貨幣貶值的國債/股票/房地產的綜合貨幣溢價怎麼樣？克萊門特沉思道。

Concluding his analysis, Clemente reasoned that a $1 million price per Bitcoin by 2034 is not out of the realm of possibility when factoring in the reduced purchasing power of the dollar. “Also would like to sprinkle on top that this is not factoring in dollars being worth significantly less in the future due to debasement, so $1mm BTC in 2034 is not as crazy as $1mm BTC in 2024,” the analyst remarked.

克萊門特總結他的分析時認為，考慮到美元購買力的下降，到 2034 年，每個比特幣的價格達到 100 萬美元並不是不可能的。這位分析師表示：“還要補充一點的是，這並沒有考慮到未來美元因貶值而大幅貶值，因此 2034 年 1 毫米的 BTC 並不像 2024 年 1 毫米的 BTC 那麼瘋狂。”

However, Clemente also acknowledged, “I do think Bitcoin’s days of 100%+ CAGR are gone, but that’s not to say it won’t outperform equity indices by a lot — and on a confidence-adjusted basis, I don’t see anything as compelling in the marketplace today.”

然而，克萊門特也承認，「我確實認為比特幣複合年增長率超過100% 的日子已經一去不復返了，但這並不是說它不會跑贏股指很多——而且在信心調整的基礎上，我沒有看到任何東西在當今市場上同樣具有吸引力。

At press time, BTC traded at $56,481.

截至發稿時，BTC 交易價格為 56,481 美元。