到 2034 年，比特币价格会达到 100 万美元吗？ Reflexivity Research 联合创始人讲述案例

在过去的七个月里，比特币的价格在 73,777 美元至 49,000 美元之间波动，极大地抑制了整个市场的情绪。

As the price of Bitcoin has consolidated over the past seven months, ranging between highs of $73,777 and lows of $49,000, market sentiment has been largely impacted by the extended period of sideways price action. In a new analysis, Will Clemente III, co-founder of Reflexivity Research, addresses the prevailing impatience among investors and shares why he still remains bullish on the leading digital asset.

由于比特币的价格在过去 7 个月里一直在 73,777 美元的高点和 49,000 美元的低点之间盘整，市场情绪在很大程度上受到长期横向价格走势的影响。 Reflexivity Research 联合创始人威尔·克莱门特三世 (Will Clemente III) 在一项新分析中解决了投资者普遍存在的不耐烦情绪，并分享了他仍然看好这一领先数字资产的原因。

According to Clemente, investors should be thinking about the biggest economic trends that will play out over the next decade and adjust their portfolio construction accordingly, either concentrating their highest confidence trend or spreading it across several promising trends based on their potential impact.

克莱门特认为，投资者应该考虑未来十年将出现的最大经济趋势，并相应调整其投资组合结构，要么集中其最高信心趋势，要么根据其潜在影响将其分散到几个有前途的趋势中。

His analysis anticipates certain macroeconomic trends. Clemente suggests that investors should consider what the biggest trends are likely to be over the next decade and adjust their portfolio accordingly. This involves either significantly increasing investment in the highest confidence trend or spreading investments across several promising trends based on their potential impact.

他的分析预测了某些宏观经济趋势。克莱门特建议投资者应该考虑未来十年最大的趋势可能是什么，并相应地调整他们的投资组合。这涉及要么显着增加对最高信心趋势的投资，要么根据其潜在影响将投资分散到几个有前途的趋势上。

He personally favors focusing on the most probable trend, which he identifies as the ongoing growth of the US deficit and the subsequent need for the government to debase the currency to service this debt. This scenario, according to Clemente, offers a more predictable outcome than other technological trends like AI or space exploration.

他个人倾向于关注最可能的趋势，即美国赤字持续增长以及政府随后需要贬值货币以偿还债务。克莱门特认为，这种情况比人工智能或太空探索等其他技术趋势提供了更可预测的结果。

“Compared to other technological trends, the debasement one is pure math. In addition, the way to bet on other technological trends, for example AI or space, isn’t as clear as debasement, given there’s not a way to position for it as clear as Bitcoin,” Clemente writes.

“与其他技术趋势相比，贬低的是纯数学。此外，押注其他技术趋势（例如人工智能或太空）的方式并不像贬低那么明确，因为没有办法像比特币那样明确定位。”克莱门特写道。

Clemente’s bullish stance on Bitcoin is also reinforced by his analysis of potential capital inflows from sovereign wealth and pension funds. He estimates that if these entities were to allocate just 1% of their capital to Bitcoin, it would result in approximately $460 billion of new investments into BTC, potentially doubling its market cap and driving prices to between $150,000 and $200,000 per Bitcoin.

克莱门特对主权财富和养老基金潜在资本流入的分析也强化了他对比特币的看涨立场。他估计，如果这些实体仅将 1% 的资本分配给比特币，就会为 BTC 带来约 4600 亿美元的新投资，有可能使其市值翻倍，并将比特币价格推至 15 万至 20 万美元之间。

He further speculates on the impact of an increased allocation, suggesting that if concerns over the deficit intensify, these institutions might allocate as much as 3%, translating into $1.4 trillion entering Bitcoin. And the upside potential is even larger. “What happens if it eats into the $10t-$15t of gold’s monetary premium? How about the combined monetary premium in treasuries/equities/real estate that’s currently parked into these assets as SoV to protect against currency debasement?” Clemente pondered.

他进一步推测增加分配的影响，表明如果对赤字的担忧加剧，这些机构可能会分配高达 3% 的资金，相当于 1.4 万亿美元进入比特币。而且上升潜力更大。 “如果它蚕食了 10 至 15 美元的黄金货币溢价，会发生什么？目前作为 SoV 存放在这些资产中以防止货币贬值的国债/股票/房地产的综合货币溢价怎么样？”克莱门特沉思道。

Concluding his analysis, Clemente reasoned that a $1 million price per Bitcoin by 2034 is not out of the realm of possibility when factoring in the reduced purchasing power of the dollar. “Also would like to sprinkle on top that this is not factoring in dollars being worth significantly less in the future due to debasement, so $1mm BTC in 2034 is not as crazy as $1mm BTC in 2024,” the analyst remarked.

克莱门特总结他的分析时认为，考虑到美元购买力的下降，到 2034 年，每个比特币的价格达到 100 万美元并不是不可能的。这位分析师表示：“还要补充一点的是，这并没有考虑到未来美元因贬值而大幅贬值，因此 2034 年 1 毫米的 BTC 并不像 2024 年 1 毫米的 BTC 那么疯狂。”

However, Clemente also acknowledged, “I do think Bitcoin’s days of 100%+ CAGR are gone, but that’s not to say it won’t outperform equity indices by a lot — and on a confidence-adjusted basis, I don’t see anything as compelling in the marketplace today.”

然而，克莱门特也承认，“我确实认为比特币复合年增长率超过 100% 的日子已经一去不复返了，但这并不是说它不会跑赢股指很多——而且在信心调整的基础上，我没有看到任何东西在当今的市场上同样具有吸引力。”

At press time, BTC traded at $56,481.

截至发稿时，BTC 交易价格为 56,481 美元。