比特幣價格、美聯儲流動性和四年周期：這是怎麼回事？

比特幣4年周期死了嗎？探索美聯儲的流動性和宏觀變化如何重塑比特幣的價格動態，以及這對投資者意味著什麼。

Yo, crypto fam! Bitcoin's been doing its thing, but the old rules might not apply anymore. Forget what you knew about the 'Bitcoin price, Fed liquidity, 4-year cycle' – things are changing faster than the price of gas in Manhattan.

喲，加密貨幣家族！比特幣一直在做它的事情，但舊規則可能不再適用。忘掉你對“比特幣價格、美聯儲流動性、四年周期”的了解吧——事情的變化速度比曼哈頓的汽油價格還要快。

Bitcoin Holds Steady Amid Macro Shifts

比特幣在宏觀變化中保持穩定

Bitcoin's been vibing around $111,000, even with a little dip recently. It's still up nearly 70% this year, fueled by those sweet ETF inflows and big institutions jumping on the bandwagon. But the real story? It's all about the Fed and liquidity, baby!

比特幣一直在 111,000 美元左右波動，儘管最近略有下跌。在大量 ETF 資金流入和大型機構紛紛加入的推動下，今年該指數仍上漲了近 70%。但真實的故事呢？一切都與美聯儲和流動性有關，寶貝！

Liquidity is the New Black

流動性是新的黑色

Word on the street is the four-year halving cycle is dunzo. Crypto guru @TedPillows on X (formerly Twitter, duh) says the Fed's monetary easing could push Bitcoin's peak all the way into 2026. Peep his chart – these bull runs are getting longer, thanks to all that sweet, sweet liquidity.

坊間流傳的說法是，四年減半週期是不可知的。 X 上的加密貨幣大師 @TedPillows（以前的 Twitter，廢話）表示，美聯儲的貨幣寬鬆政策可能會將比特幣的峰值一路推到 2026 年。看看他的圖表 - 由於所有這些甜蜜的流動性，這些牛市正在變得越來越長。

Forget the 4-year cycle—it’s all about liquidity now, and the Fed’s easing may push Bitcoin’s next peak into 2026. Source: @TedPillows via X

The Fed's Got the Beat

美聯儲已經掌握了節奏

The Fed already cut rates once, and more cuts are expected. This could be a major boost for risk assets like Bitcoin. Think of it as the Fed throwing a party, and Bitcoin's invited to dance.

美聯儲已經降息一次，預計還會有更多降息。這可能會對比特幣等風險資產產生重大推動作用。可以將其視為美聯儲舉辦派對，並邀請比特幣跳舞。

ETFs: The New Whales

ETF：新鯨魚

Those Bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale? They're sucking up BTC like a Dyson. This institutional love is stabilizing the market, even when things get a little wild.

那些來自 BlackRock、Fidelity 和 Grayscale 的比特幣 ETF？他們像戴森一樣吸納比特幣。這種機構性的愛正在穩定市場，即使事情變得有點瘋狂。

Technicals Still Matter (Kinda)

技術仍然很重要（有點）

As long as Bitcoin stays above $102,000, the bull run is on, according to @TedPillows. A monthly close below that? That's when you start sweating. Some folks are calling for $200,000 or higher by mid-2026.

據 @TedPillows 稱，只要比特幣保持在 102,000 美元以上，牛市就會持續。月度收盤價低於該水平？那是你開始出汗的時候。有些人呼籲在 2026 年中期之前籌集 20 萬美元或更高的資金。

Bitcoin’s bull run stays intact as long as the $102K support holds—a monthly close below it could change the game. Source: @TedPillows via X

Price Predictions: Wild Guesses Welcome

價格預測：歡迎大膽猜測

Everyone's got an opinion, right? Standard Chartered sees $130,000–$150,000, while Fundstrat is all-in on $200,000–$250,000. Some crazy models even suggest $300,000–$500,000! But hey, a monetary policy flip or a big ol' liquidation could throw a wrench in the gears.

大家都有意見吧？渣打銀行預計投資額為 130,000 美元至 150,000 美元，而 Fundstrat 預計投資額為 200,000 美元至 250,000 美元。一些瘋狂的模特甚至建議售價 300,000 美元至 500,000 美元！但是，嘿，貨幣政策翻轉或大規模清算可能會破壞經濟發展。

My Two Satoshis

我的兩個中本聰

Look, the four-year cycle might be fading, but don't get it twisted. Macroeconomics is playing a big role now, and liquidity is the name of the game. But, if you start seeing news about banks sweating over bad loans, it's time to buckle up because volatility is likely heading our way.

看，四年周期可能正在消失，但不要扭曲它。宏觀經濟現在發揮著重要作用，而流動性就是遊戲的名稱。但是，如果你開始看到銀行因不良貸款而焦頭爛額的消息，那麼是時候係好安全帶了，因為波動很可能正在向我們襲來。

The Bottom Line

底線

So, what's the deal? Bitcoin's still got juice, but it's reacting to new forces. Keep an eye on the Fed, watch those ETF flows, and don't get too hung up on the old four-year cycle. Crypto's always evolving, and if you don't adapt, you'll get left in the dust. Now go out there and make some money!

那麼，到底是怎麼回事呢？比特幣仍然有活力，但它正在對新的力量做出反應。密切關注美聯儲，關注 ETF 的流動，不要太沉迷於舊的四年周期。加密貨幣總是在不斷發展，如果你不適應，你就會被拋在後面。現在就出去賺錢吧！