比特币价格、美联储流动性和四年周期：这是怎么回事？

比特币4年周期死了吗？探索美联储的流动性和宏观变化如何重塑比特币的价格动态，以及这对投资者意味着什么。

Yo, crypto fam! Bitcoin's been doing its thing, but the old rules might not apply anymore. Forget what you knew about the 'Bitcoin price, Fed liquidity, 4-year cycle' – things are changing faster than the price of gas in Manhattan.

哟，加密货币家族！比特币一直在做它的事情，但旧规则可能不再适用。忘掉你对“比特币价格、美联储流动性、四年周期”的了解吧——事情的变化速度比曼哈顿的汽油价格还要快。

Bitcoin Holds Steady Amid Macro Shifts

比特币在宏观变化中保持稳定

Bitcoin's been vibing around $111,000, even with a little dip recently. It's still up nearly 70% this year, fueled by those sweet ETF inflows and big institutions jumping on the bandwagon. But the real story? It's all about the Fed and liquidity, baby!

比特币一直在 111,000 美元左右波动，尽管最近略有下跌。在大量 ETF 资金流入和大型机构纷纷加入的推动下，今年该指数仍上涨了近 70%。但真实的故事呢？一切都与美联储和流动性有关，宝贝！

Liquidity is the New Black

流动性是新的黑色

Word on the street is the four-year halving cycle is dunzo. Crypto guru @TedPillows on X (formerly Twitter, duh) says the Fed's monetary easing could push Bitcoin's peak all the way into 2026. Peep his chart – these bull runs are getting longer, thanks to all that sweet, sweet liquidity.

坊间流传的说法是，四年减半周期是不可知的。 X 上的加密货币大师 @TedPillows（以前的 Twitter，废话）表示，美联储的货币宽松政策可能会将比特币的峰值一路推到 2026 年。看看他的图表 - 由于所有这些甜蜜的流动性，这些牛市正在变得越来越长。

Forget the 4-year cycle—it’s all about liquidity now, and the Fed’s easing may push Bitcoin’s next peak into 2026. Source: @TedPillows via X

The Fed's Got the Beat

美联储已经掌握了节奏

The Fed already cut rates once, and more cuts are expected. This could be a major boost for risk assets like Bitcoin. Think of it as the Fed throwing a party, and Bitcoin's invited to dance.

美联储已经降息一次，预计还会有更多降息。这可能会对比特币等风险资产产生重大推动作用。可以将其视为美联储举办派对，并邀请比特币跳舞。

ETFs: The New Whales

ETF：新鲸鱼

Those Bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale? They're sucking up BTC like a Dyson. This institutional love is stabilizing the market, even when things get a little wild.

那些来自 BlackRock、Fidelity 和 Grayscale 的比特币 ETF？他们像戴森一样吸纳比特币。这种机构性的爱正在稳定市场，即使事情变得有点疯狂。

Technicals Still Matter (Kinda)

技术仍然很重要（有点）

As long as Bitcoin stays above $102,000, the bull run is on, according to @TedPillows. A monthly close below that? That's when you start sweating. Some folks are calling for $200,000 or higher by mid-2026.

据 @TedPillows 称，只要比特币保持在 102,000 美元以上，牛市就会持续。月度收盘价低于该水平？那是你开始出汗的时候。有些人呼吁在 2026 年中期之前筹集 20 万美元或更高的资金。

Bitcoin’s bull run stays intact as long as the $102K support holds—a monthly close below it could change the game. Source: @TedPillows via X

Price Predictions: Wild Guesses Welcome

价格预测：欢迎大胆猜测

Everyone's got an opinion, right? Standard Chartered sees $130,000–$150,000, while Fundstrat is all-in on $200,000–$250,000. Some crazy models even suggest $300,000–$500,000! But hey, a monetary policy flip or a big ol' liquidation could throw a wrench in the gears.

大家都有意见吧？渣打银行预计投资额为 130,000 美元至 150,000 美元，而 Fundstrat 预计投资额为 200,000 美元至 250,000 美元。一些疯狂的模特甚至建议售价 300,000 美元至 500,000 美元！但是，嘿，货币政策翻转或大规模清算可能会破坏经济发展。

My Two Satoshis

我的两个中本聪

Look, the four-year cycle might be fading, but don't get it twisted. Macroeconomics is playing a big role now, and liquidity is the name of the game. But, if you start seeing news about banks sweating over bad loans, it's time to buckle up because volatility is likely heading our way.

看，四年周期可能正在消失，但不要扭曲它。宏观经济现在发挥着重要作用，而流动性就是游戏的名称。但是，如果你开始看到银行因不良贷款而焦头烂额的消息，那么是时候系好安全带了，因为波动很可能正在向我们袭来。

The Bottom Line

底线

So, what's the deal? Bitcoin's still got juice, but it's reacting to new forces. Keep an eye on the Fed, watch those ETF flows, and don't get too hung up on the old four-year cycle. Crypto's always evolving, and if you don't adapt, you'll get left in the dust. Now go out there and make some money!

那么，到底是怎么回事呢？比特币仍然有活力，但它正在对新的力量做出反应。密切关注美联储，关注 ETF 的流动，不要太沉迷于旧的四年周期。加密货币总是在不断发展，如果你不适应，你就会被抛在后面。现在就出去赚钱吧！