比特幣價格已跌至 54,000 美元——原因如下

週日晚上，加密貨幣市場經歷了嚴重的閃電崩盤，比特幣下跌 9.65% 至 2 月以來的最低水平，以太幣跌破 2,400 美元。

Bitcoin price dropped below $54,000 on Sunday evening as a broader crypto market flash crash saw Bitcoin fall 9.65% to its lowest level since February, while Ether dropped below $2,400.

週日晚上，由於更廣泛的加密貨幣市場閃崩，比特幣價格下跌 9.65％，至 2 月以來的最低水平，比特幣價格跌破 54,000 美元，而以太幣價格跌破 2,400 美元。

The decline comes amid investor reactions to several news events, including macroeconomic updates, movements by Jump Crypto, and the increasing likelihood that Kamala Harris could win the upcoming U.S. election against pro-crypto Donald Trump.

下跌之際，投資者對幾項新聞事件做出反應，包括宏觀經濟更新、Jump Crypto 的動向，以及卡馬拉·哈里斯(Kamala Harris) 擊敗支持加密貨幣的唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)贏得即將到來的美國大選的可能性越來越大。

Bitcoin price fell to $54,000—here’s why:

比特幣價格跌至 54,000 美元——原因如下：

Japan’s rate hike, weak US jobs data, rumors of a Jump Crypto sell-off, and possible war between Iran and Israel are all cited as reasons for the crypto market flash crash.

日本升息、美國就業數據疲軟、Jump Crypto 拋售的傳言以及伊朗和以色列之間可能發生的戰爭都被認為是加密貨幣市場閃崩的原因。

Will XRP and BTC rise again? Yes! Retweet if you buy the dip!… pic.twitter.com/uQaSPXwdEF

XRP和BTC會再漲嗎？是的！如果您買進下跌，請轉寄！ … pic.twitter.com/uQaSPXwdEF

— Collin Brown (@CollinBrownXRP) August 5, 2024

— 科林布朗 (@CollinBrownXRP) 2024 年 8 月 5 日

Bitcoin price temporarily fell below $54,000 before recovering slightly to trade at $54,698. Ether price also hit its lowest level since February, dropping 19.45% to trade at $2,333. Among the largest cryptocurrencies, BNB price declined by 12.88%, and XRP price fell by 13.38%.

比特幣價格暫時跌破 54,000 美元，然後小幅回升至 54,698 美元。以太坊價格也創下 2 月以來的最低水平，下跌 19.45%，至 2,333 美元。在最大的加密貨幣中，BNB 價格下跌 12.88%，XRP 價格下跌 13.38%。

Reasons for the crypto crash

加密貨幣崩潰的原因

“This decline is due to ETH ETF trading and large investors beginning to unwind their Grayscale ETH Fund (ETHE) positions.”Justin d’AnethanHead of APAC Business Development at Keyrock

「這種下降是由於 ETH ETF 交易和大型投資者開始解除其灰階 ETH 基金 (ETHE) 部位所致。」Justin d'Anethan Keyrock 亞太區業務開發主管

According to Min Jung, analyst at Presto Research, the drop in Bitcoin price and Ether price was driven by several factors:

Presto Research 分析師 Min Jung 表示，比特幣價格和以太幣價格下跌是由以下幾個因素驅動的：

“Firstly, the labor market figures released last Friday were significantly lower than expected, with only 114,000 jobs added, which heightened fears of an upcoming recession, leading to a 2.43% drop in the Nasdaq and a 1.84% decline in the S&P 500.”

「首先，上週五公佈的勞動力市場數據明顯低於預期，僅新增11.4萬個就業崗位，這加劇了人們對即將到來的經濟衰退的擔憂，導致那斯達克指數下跌2.43%，標普500指數下跌1.84%。

Jung also highlighted that news emerged over the weekend that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway sold nearly half of its Apple Inc. position in the second quarter, which could put further pressure on the stock market.

榮格也強調，週末有消息稱，華倫·巴菲特的伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司在第二季度出售了近一半的蘋果公司股份，這可能會給股市帶來進一步的壓力。

Moreover, Jump Crypto, the crypto arm of Jump Trading, was observed moving hundreds of millions of dollars worth of assets, including Ether and USDT, on Sunday.

此外，Jump Trading 的加密貨幣部門 Jump Crypto 在周日轉移了價值數億美元的資產，包括以太幣和 USDT。

According to Spot On Chain, Jump Trading has transferred another 17,576 ETH (around $46.78 million) to a centralized exchange (CEX) in the past 24 hours. The crypto market analysis firm also noted that Jump Trading still has 37.6K wstETH (around $101 million) and 11.5K sSTETH (around $26.3 million) and is currently unstaking Lido.

據 Spot On Chain 稱，Jump Trading 在過去 24 小時內將 17,576 ETH（約 4,678 萬美元）轉移到中心化交易所（CEX）。這家加密市場分析公司還指出，Jump Trading 仍擁有 37.6K wstETH（約 1.01 億美元）和 11.5K sSTETH（約 2,630 萬美元），目前正在取消 Lido 質押。

This sparked speculation that the company might be liquidating its crypto holdings as part of an investigation by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

這引發了人們的猜測，作為美國商品期貨交易委員會調查的一部分，該公司可能會清算其加密資產。

“Jump Trading has moved ETH to a centralized exchange as rumors circulate that they may be forced to shut down their crypto operations due to a CFTC investigation.”Min JungAnalyst at Presto Research

「Jump Trading 已將 ETH 移至中心化交易所，因為有傳言稱，由於 CFTC 的調查，他們可能被迫關閉其加密業務。」Presto Research 分析師 Min Jung

At the same time, the upcoming U.S. presidential election is becoming a greater source of uncertainty for crypto investors as approval ratings for U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris rise. The election poll by decentralized prediction platform Polymarket currently gives Harris a 45% chance of winning, which is up from around 30% when Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris as his successor.

同時，隨著美國副總統卡馬拉·哈里斯的支持率上升，即將到來的美國總統大選正成為加密貨幣投資者更大的不確定性來源。去中心化預測平台 Polymarket 的選舉民調目前顯示哈里斯獲勝的可能性為 45%，高於拜登退出競選並認可哈里斯作為繼任者時的 30% 左右。

While Trump is a strong supporter of crypto, Harris has yet to match his enthusiasm for the industry. However, the Harris team reportedly brought in David Plouffe, a former member of the Binance Global Advisory Board and global strategic adviser for Alchemy Pay, for crypto outreach efforts.

雖然川普是加密貨幣的堅定支持者，但哈里斯尚未達到他對該行業的熱情。然而，據報道，哈里斯團隊聘請了幣安全球諮詢委員會前成員、Alchemy Pay 全球策略顧問 David Plouffe 來進行加密貨幣推廣工作。

According to Jeff Dorman, Chief Investment Officer of crypto asset management company Arca, in a post on X, more support for Harris is “bad for crypto.”

加密資產管理公司 Arca 首席投資長 Jeff Dorman 在 X 上發表的一篇文章中表示，對哈里斯的更多支持「對加密貨幣不利」。

“Even if Democrats are less hostile to crypto, the entire stock and crypto market favors a Trump victory.”Jeff DormanChief Investment Officer of Arca

「即使民主黨人對加密貨幣的敵意減弱，整個股票和加密貨幣市場也有利於川普的勝利。」Jeff Dorman Arca 首席投資官

Economic factors in the bigger picture

大局中的經濟因素

A potential war between Israel and Iran could cause crypto prices to fall due to heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

由於地緣政治不確定性加劇，以色列和伊朗之間潛在的戰爭可能會導致加密貨幣價格下跌。

Investors typically become risk-averse, moving funds from volatile assets like cryptocurrencies to safer options. This shift can lead to significant sell-offs in the crypto market.

投資者通常會規避風險，將資金從加密貨幣等波動性資產轉移到更安全的選擇。這種轉變可能會導致加密貨幣市場大幅拋售。

Additionally, economic disruptions, such as higher oil prices and trade route disturbances, can negatively impact global economic stability, further reducing confidence in speculative assets. Fear and uncertainty during such conflicts drive market volatility, prompting investors to seek stability and thus exerting downward pressure on crypto prices.

此外，油價上漲和貿易路線幹擾等經濟幹擾等經濟幹擾可能對全球經濟穩定產生負面影響，進一步降低對投機資產的信心。此類衝突期間的恐懼和不確定性會導致市場波動，促使投資者尋求穩定，從而對加密貨幣價格施加下行壓力。