這是本週期比特幣價格可能上漲的高度

PI 週期頂部指標透過追蹤兩個關鍵移動平均線來運行：短期 111 天移動平均線和 350 天移動平均線

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently shared his analysis of Bitcoin’s price movements in a video update on YouTube, utilizing the PI Cycle Top Indicator. This predictive tool has garnered attention for its historical accuracy in pinpointing the peaks of Bitcoin bull runs.

加密貨幣分析師 Rekt Capital 最近在 YouTube 上的影片更新中分享了他利用 PI 週期頂部指標對比特幣價格走勢的分析。這種預測工具因其在確定比特幣牛市高峰方面的歷史準確性而受到關注。

Here's How High Bitcoin Price Could Go This Cycle

這是本週期比特幣價格可能上漲的高度

The PI Cycle Top Indicator tracks two key moving averages: a short-term 111-day moving average (colored orange in Rekt Capital’s visual analysis) and the 350 day moving average (depicted in green) to gauge extended market trends. A crucial aspect of this tool is the “crossover” event where the short-term moving average rises above the long-term average, historically signaling a peak in Bitcoin’s bull market within a few days.

PI 週期頂部指標追蹤兩個關鍵移動平均線：短期 111 天移動平均線（在 Rekt Capital 的可視化分析中為橙色）和 350 天移動平均線（以綠色表示），以衡量長期市場趨勢。該工具的一個重要方面是「交叉」事件，即短期移動平均線升至長期平均線之上，從歷史上看，這標誌著比特幣牛市在幾天內見頂。

However, the current market data shows that these two moving averages are diverging rather than converging, suggesting that the conditions for a bull market peak are not yet in place. “As these two PI Cycle moving averages are currently diverging from one another, the bull market peak is nowhere close,” Rekt Capital explained in his video.

然而，目前的市場數據顯示，這兩條均線正在發散而不是收斂，顯示牛市見頂的條件尚未具備。 Rekt Capital 在影片中解釋道：“由於這兩條 PI 週期移動平均線目前相互背離，牛市峰值還很遙遠。”

111-Day Moving Average: Key Metric for Bargain Buying Opportunities

111 天移動平均線：逢低買進機會的關鍵指標

The 111-day moving average serves as a critical metric in Rekt Capital’s analysis. During bear market phases or pre-halving years, this moving average acts as a barometer for bargain buying opportunities, oscillating around it in downtrends. Conversely, in halving years, such as 2020, it tends to act as a support level, underpinning uptrends that lead to new all-time highs.

111 天移動平均線是 Rekt Capital 分析的關鍵指標。在熊市階段或減半前的年份，該移動平均線充當逢低買入機會的晴雨表，在下降趨勢中圍繞其振盪。相反，在減半年份，例如 2020 年，它往往充當支撐位，支撐上升趨勢，從而創下歷史新高。

“Any dip below this moving average is a bargain buying territory,” Rekt Capital noted, emphasizing the strategic importance of this level during different market phases. Currently, Bitcoin is trading below this moving average, approximately at $59,000, which has not happened for a significant period since the pre-halving year, marking a potentially undervalued state relative to historical patterns.

Rekt Capital 指出：「任何低於該移動平均線的下跌都是逢低買入區域。」他強調了該水準在不同市場階段的戰略重要性。目前，比特幣的交易價格低於該移動平均線，約為59,000 美元，自減半前的一年以來，這種情況在很長一段時間內都沒有發生過，這標誌著相對於歷史模式而言，比特幣可能處於被低估的狀態。

The analysis suggests that if Bitcoin reclaims the $63,900 level—just above the current position of the 111-day moving average—it could end the current bargain buying opportunity, setting the stage for further upward movement. “We are approximately $5,000 away from reclaiming this region. Not much needs to happen for Bitcoin to bounce back and reclaim this region to end this bargain buying opportunity,” remarked Rekt Capital.

分析表明，如果比特幣收復 63,900 美元的水平（略高於 111 天移動平均線的當前位置），則可能會結束當前的逢低買入機會，為進一步上漲奠定基礎。 「我們大約需要 5,000 美元才能收回該地區。比特幣不需要發生太大的事情就可以反彈並奪回該區域，從而結束這種逢低買入的機會。

350-Day Moving Average: Resistance Before Parabolic Price Action

350 天移動平均線：拋物線價格走勢前的阻力

Another element of the PI Cycle Top Indicator is the 350 day moving average. This average typically gets revisited in later stages of the market cycle, often acting as resistance before an upside deviation occurs.

PI 週期頂部指標的另一個要素是 350 日移動平均線。此平均線通常會在市場週期的後期重新審視，通常在出現上行偏差之前充當阻力位。

“Upside deviations beyond the green moving average that’s when we see parabolic price action take place,” Rekt Capital pointed out, referencing past events in 2013 and 2017 where such movements were observed. The current green moving average resides around $96,000, indicating a significant upside potential before any parabolic risks manifest.

Rekt Capital 指出，「當向上偏差超出綠色移動平均線時，我們就會看到拋物線價格走勢發生。」他引用了 2013 年和 2017 年觀察到此類走勢的過去事件。目前的綠色移動平均線位於 96,000 美元左右，表明在任何拋物線風險顯現之前存在巨大的上漲潛力。

Rekt Capital’s analysis suggests that while Bitcoin is far from reaching the $96,000 mark, historical patterns predict that it will eventually approach and possibly exceed this level, leading to a short-lived period of rapid price increase.

Rekt Capital的分析表明，雖然比特幣遠未達到96,000美元大關，但歷史模式預測它最終將接近並可能超過這一水平，從而導致短暫的價格快速上漲。

“[We are] nowhere close to this green moving average because it resides at around $96k, so we’re still almost $30k away from this region […] once we break beyond $96k we have to understand that the clock is starting to then start ticking really for the end of the ball run and we might have have a a window of just a few months where Bitcoin will be rallying uninterruptedly with of course pullbacks,” the analyst explained.

「[我們]距離這個綠色移動平均線還很遠，因為它位於 96,000 美元左右，所以我們距離這個區域仍然有近 30,000 美元[...]一旦我們突破 96,000 美元，我們就必須明白時鐘已經開始了然後開始真正在球運行結束時滴答作響，我們可能只有幾個月的時間窗口，比特幣將不間斷地上漲，當然也會有回調。

Looking ahead, Rekt Capital emphasized the importance of monitoring the convergence of these two moving averages for signs of a potential bull market peak. “We need to see a flick up in the Pi Cycle moving average for that crossover to be in place to some degree,” he stated, indicating that a sharp rise in price action is required for a definitive crossover to materialize.

展望未來，Rekt Capital 強調了監控這兩條移動平均線收斂以尋找潛在多頭見頂跡象的重要性。他表示：「我們需要看到 Pi 週期移動平均線的快速上升，才能在某種程度上實現這種交叉。」這表明，要實現最終的交叉，需要價格走勢的大幅上漲。

At press time, BTC traded at $58,695.

截至發稿時，BTC 交易價格為 58,695 美元。