这是本周期比特币价格可能上涨的高度

PI 周期顶部指标通过跟踪两个关键移动平均线来运行：短期 111 天移动平均线和 350 天移动平均线

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently shared his analysis of Bitcoin’s price movements in a video update on YouTube, utilizing the PI Cycle Top Indicator. This predictive tool has garnered attention for its historical accuracy in pinpointing the peaks of Bitcoin bull runs.

加密货币分析师 Rekt Capital 最近在 YouTube 上的视频更新中分享了他利用 PI 周期顶部指标对比特币价格走势的分析。这种预测工具因其在确定比特币牛市峰值方面的历史准确性而受到关注。

Here's How High Bitcoin Price Could Go This Cycle

这是本周期比特币价格可能上涨的高度

The PI Cycle Top Indicator tracks two key moving averages: a short-term 111-day moving average (colored orange in Rekt Capital’s visual analysis) and the 350 day moving average (depicted in green) to gauge extended market trends. A crucial aspect of this tool is the “crossover” event where the short-term moving average rises above the long-term average, historically signaling a peak in Bitcoin’s bull market within a few days.

PI 周期顶部指标跟踪两个关键移动平均线：短期 111 天移动平均线（在 Rekt Capital 的可视化分析中为橙色）和 350 天移动平均线（以绿色表示），以衡量长期市场趋势。该工具的一个重要方面是“交叉”事件，即短期移动平均线升至长期平均线之上，从历史上看，这标志着比特币牛市在几天内见顶。

However, the current market data shows that these two moving averages are diverging rather than converging, suggesting that the conditions for a bull market peak are not yet in place. “As these two PI Cycle moving averages are currently diverging from one another, the bull market peak is nowhere close,” Rekt Capital explained in his video.

然而，目前的市场数据显示，这两条均线正在发散而不是收敛，表明牛市见顶的条件尚未具备。 Rekt Capital 在视频中解释道：“由于这两条 PI 周期移动平均线目前相互背离，牛市峰值还很遥远。”

111-Day Moving Average: Key Metric for Bargain Buying Opportunities

111 天移动平均线：逢低买入机会的关键指标

The 111-day moving average serves as a critical metric in Rekt Capital’s analysis. During bear market phases or pre-halving years, this moving average acts as a barometer for bargain buying opportunities, oscillating around it in downtrends. Conversely, in halving years, such as 2020, it tends to act as a support level, underpinning uptrends that lead to new all-time highs.

111 天移动平均线是 Rekt Capital 分析中的一个关键指标。在熊市阶段或减半前的年份，该移动平均线充当逢低买入机会的晴雨表，在下降趋势中围绕其振荡。相反，在减半年份，例如 2020 年，它往往充当支撑位，支撑上升趋势，从而创下历史新高。

“Any dip below this moving average is a bargain buying territory,” Rekt Capital noted, emphasizing the strategic importance of this level during different market phases. Currently, Bitcoin is trading below this moving average, approximately at $59,000, which has not happened for a significant period since the pre-halving year, marking a potentially undervalued state relative to historical patterns.

Rekt Capital 指出：“任何低于该移动平均线的下跌都是逢低买入区域。”他强调了该水平在不同市场阶段的战略重要性。目前，比特币的交易价格低于该移动平均线，约为 59,000 美元，自减半前的一年以来，这种情况在很长一段时间内都没有发生过，这标志着相对于历史模式而言，比特币可能处于被低估的状态。

The analysis suggests that if Bitcoin reclaims the $63,900 level—just above the current position of the 111-day moving average—it could end the current bargain buying opportunity, setting the stage for further upward movement. “We are approximately $5,000 away from reclaiming this region. Not much needs to happen for Bitcoin to bounce back and reclaim this region to end this bargain buying opportunity,” remarked Rekt Capital.

分析表明，如果比特币收复 63,900 美元的水平（略高于 111 天移动平均线的当前位置），则可能会结束当前的逢低买入机会，为进一步上涨奠定基础。 “我们大约需要 5,000 美元才能收回该地区。比特币不需要发生太大的事情就可以反弹并夺回该区域，从而结束这种逢低买入的机会。”Rekt Capital 表示。

350-Day Moving Average: Resistance Before Parabolic Price Action

350 天移动平均线：抛物线价格走势之前的阻力

Another element of the PI Cycle Top Indicator is the 350 day moving average. This average typically gets revisited in later stages of the market cycle, often acting as resistance before an upside deviation occurs.

PI 周期顶部指标的另一个要素是 350 日移动平均线。该平均线通常会在市场周期的后期重新审视，通常在出现上行偏差之前充当阻力位。

“Upside deviations beyond the green moving average that’s when we see parabolic price action take place,” Rekt Capital pointed out, referencing past events in 2013 and 2017 where such movements were observed. The current green moving average resides around $96,000, indicating a significant upside potential before any parabolic risks manifest.

Rekt Capital 指出，“当向上偏差超出绿色移动平均线时，我们就会看到抛物线价格走势发生。”他引用了 2013 年和 2017 年观察到此类走势的过去事件。目前的绿色移动平均线位于 96,000 美元左右，表明在任何抛物线风险显现之前存在巨大的上涨潜力。

Rekt Capital’s analysis suggests that while Bitcoin is far from reaching the $96,000 mark, historical patterns predict that it will eventually approach and possibly exceed this level, leading to a short-lived period of rapid price increase.

Rekt Capital的分析表明，虽然比特币远未达到96,000美元大关，但历史模式预测它最终将接近并可能超过这一水平，从而导致短暂的价格快速上涨。

“[We are] nowhere close to this green moving average because it resides at around $96k, so we’re still almost $30k away from this region […] once we break beyond $96k we have to understand that the clock is starting to then start ticking really for the end of the ball run and we might have have a a window of just a few months where Bitcoin will be rallying uninterruptedly with of course pullbacks,” the analyst explained.

“[我们]距离这个绿色移动平均线还很远，因为它位于 96,000 美元左右，所以我们距离这个区域仍然有近 30,000 美元[...]一旦我们突破 96,000 美元，我们就必须明白时钟已经开始了然后开始真正在球运行结束时滴答作响，我们可能只有几个月的时间窗口，比特币将不间断地上涨，当然也会有回调。”分析师解释道。

Looking ahead, Rekt Capital emphasized the importance of monitoring the convergence of these two moving averages for signs of a potential bull market peak. “We need to see a flick up in the Pi Cycle moving average for that crossover to be in place to some degree,” he stated, indicating that a sharp rise in price action is required for a definitive crossover to materialize.

展望未来，Rekt Capital 强调了监控这两条移动平均线收敛以寻找潜在牛市见顶迹象的重要性。他表示：“我们需要看到 Pi 周期移动平均线的快速上升，才能在某种程度上实现这种交叉。”这表明，要实现最终的交叉，需要价格走势的大幅上涨。

At press time, BTC traded at $58,695.

截至发稿时，BTC 交易价格为 58,695 美元。