比特幣價格突破：賣家是否已經筋疲力盡？

比特幣的價格走勢是買家和賣家之間的拉鋸戰。突破即將來臨，還是賣家將繼續佔據主導地位？

Bitcoin's been doing the tango, hasn't it? Slipping, sliding, teasing a breakout, then getting slapped back down by sellers. But hold on a sec, could those sellers be running out of steam? Let's dive into what's been happening with the Bitcoin price, the potential for a breakout, and whether the sellers are finally throwing in the towel.

比特幣一直在跳探戈，不是嗎？滑倒、滑倒、挑釁突破，然後被賣家打回原形。但等一下，那些賣家會失去動力嗎？讓我們深入了解比特幣價格的變化、突破的可能性，以及賣家是否最終認輸。

Selling Pressure: Cooling Off?

拋售壓力：降溫？

Despite the recent dips, some on-chain data suggests a possible shift. The MVRV Z-Score, comparing Bitcoin's market value to its fair value, is showing a potentially crucial pattern. A similar pattern in the past led to a nearly 14% rally. This hints that while there's still selling pressure, long-term holders are playing it cool, holding steady through the dips.

儘管最近有所下降，但一些鏈上數據表明可能會發生轉變。 MVRV Z 分數將比特幣的市場價值與其公允價值進行比較，顯示出一種潛在的關鍵模式。過去類似的模式導致了近 14% 的上漲。這表明，儘管拋售壓力依然存在，但長期持有者卻表現得很冷靜，在逢低時保持穩定。

Also, the Spent Coins Age Band metric reinforces this outlook. There's been a significant drop in the number of coins being sold by both long-term (365 days to 2 years) and short-term (7-30 days) holders. This indicates that fewer coins are hitting the market, suggesting that both types of sellers might be losing momentum.

此外，“已用幣年齡範圍”指標也強化了這一前景。長期（365 天至 2 年）和短期（7-30 天）持有者出售的代幣數量均大幅下降。這表明進入市場的代幣數量減少，表明兩種類型的賣家可能正在失去動力。

Technical Indicators: A Breakout Brewing?

技術指標：突破正在醞釀？

Looking at the charts, Bitcoin's been moving within a falling wedge, a pattern that usually breaks upward. Although sellers stepped in when the price briefly tested the upper boundary, a doji candle formed soon after, signaling indecision. This could be the calm before the storm, right before a reversal.

從圖表來看，比特幣一直在下降楔形內移動，這種模式通常會向上突破。儘管在價格短暫測試上限時賣家介入，但十字星蠟燭很快形成，表明猶豫不決。這可能是暴風雨前、逆轉前的平靜。

Adding fuel to the fire, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a bullish divergence, which often signals fading selling pressure before a trend reversal. If Bitcoin can punch through $111,500, we might see a short-term breakout toward $114,000, with potential to climb even higher if momentum picks up.

火上澆油的是，相對強弱指數（RSI）顯示出看漲背離，這通常預示著趨勢逆轉之前拋售壓力正在減弱。如果比特幣能夠突破 111,500 美元，我們可能會看到短期突破 114,000 美元，如果勢頭增強，還有可能攀升得更高。

The Gold Connection

黃金連接

Interestingly, gold experienced some sharp losses around the same time. Some analysts believe that capital might be flowing from gold into riskier assets like crypto. Considering gold's massive market value compared to Bitcoin, even a small percentage shift could send Bitcoin's price soaring.

有趣的是，黃金大約在同一時間經歷了一些大幅下跌。一些分析師認為，資本可能會從黃金流向加密貨幣等風險較高的資產。考慮到黃金與比特幣相比的巨大市場價值，即使是很小的百分比變化也可能導致比特幣的價格飆升。

The Disbelief Phase

懷疑階段

Some analysts are suggesting that Bitcoin might be entering a "disbelief phase" after a recent crash. This is when a new uptrend begins, but most investors remain skeptical. Negative funding rates in the derivatives market indicate that traders are still slightly bearish. However, the longer Bitcoin stays in this phase, the stronger the potential for an explosive upside move becomes, potentially triggering a short squeeze towards $113,000 or even $126,000.

一些分析師表示，在最近的崩盤之後，比特幣可能會進入“難以置信的階段”。這是新的上升趨勢開始的時候，但大多數投資者仍持懷疑態度。衍生品市場的負資金利率表明交易者仍略顯看跌。然而，比特幣在這一階段停留的時間越長，爆發性上漲的潛力就越強，可能會引發空頭逼近 113,000 美元甚至 126,000 美元。

Final Thoughts

最後的想法

So, what's the takeaway? Bitcoin's price action is a complex dance between buyers and sellers. While there's no guarantee of a breakout, several factors – cooling selling pressure, bullish technical indicators, potential capital flow from gold, and the possibility of a short squeeze – suggest that the sellers might be getting tired. Of course, always do your own research and remember, in the crazy world of crypto, anything can happen. But hey, that's what makes it fun, right? Keep your eyes peeled, folks!

那麼，要點是什麼？比特幣的價格行為是買家和賣家之間複雜的舞蹈。雖然不能保證突破，但一些因素——拋售壓力降溫、看漲的技術指標、黃金的潛在資金流以及軋空的可能性——表明賣家可能會感到疲倦。當然，一定要做好自己的研究，並記住，在瘋狂的加密世界中，任何事情都有可能發生。但是，嘿，這就是它的樂趣，對吧？各位，請擦亮眼睛！