比特币价格突破：卖家是否已经筋疲力尽？

比特币的价格走势是买家和卖家之间的拉锯战。突破即将来临，还是卖家将继续占据主导地位？

Bitcoin's been doing the tango, hasn't it? Slipping, sliding, teasing a breakout, then getting slapped back down by sellers. But hold on a sec, could those sellers be running out of steam? Let's dive into what's been happening with the Bitcoin price, the potential for a breakout, and whether the sellers are finally throwing in the towel.

比特币一直在跳探戈，不是吗？滑倒、滑倒、挑衅突破，然后被卖家打回原形。但等一下，那些卖家会失去动力吗？让我们深入了解比特币价格的变化、突破的可能性，以及卖家是否最终认输。

Selling Pressure: Cooling Off?

抛售压力：降温？

Despite the recent dips, some on-chain data suggests a possible shift. The MVRV Z-Score, comparing Bitcoin's market value to its fair value, is showing a potentially crucial pattern. A similar pattern in the past led to a nearly 14% rally. This hints that while there's still selling pressure, long-term holders are playing it cool, holding steady through the dips.

尽管最近有所下降，但一些链上数据表明可能会发生转变。 MVRV Z 分数将比特币的市场价值与其公允价值进行比较，显示出一种潜在的关键模式。过去类似的模式导致了近 14% 的上涨。这表明，尽管抛售压力依然存在，但长期持有者却表现得很冷静，在逢低时保持稳定。

Also, the Spent Coins Age Band metric reinforces this outlook. There's been a significant drop in the number of coins being sold by both long-term (365 days to 2 years) and short-term (7-30 days) holders. This indicates that fewer coins are hitting the market, suggesting that both types of sellers might be losing momentum.

此外，“已用币年龄范围”指标也强化了这一前景。长期（365 天至 2 年）和短期（7-30 天）持有者出售的代币数量均大幅下降。这表明进入市场的代币数量减少，表明两种类型的卖家可能正在失去动力。

Technical Indicators: A Breakout Brewing?

技术指标：突破正在酝酿？

Looking at the charts, Bitcoin's been moving within a falling wedge, a pattern that usually breaks upward. Although sellers stepped in when the price briefly tested the upper boundary, a doji candle formed soon after, signaling indecision. This could be the calm before the storm, right before a reversal.

从图表来看，比特币一直在下降楔形内移动，这种模式通常会向上突破。尽管在价格短暂测试上限时卖家介入，但十字星蜡烛很快形成，表明犹豫不决。这可能是暴风雨前、逆转前的平静。

Adding fuel to the fire, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a bullish divergence, which often signals fading selling pressure before a trend reversal. If Bitcoin can punch through $111,500, we might see a short-term breakout toward $114,000, with potential to climb even higher if momentum picks up.

火上浇油的是，相对强弱指数（RSI）显示出看涨背离，这通常预示着趋势逆转之前抛售压力正在减弱。如果比特币能够突破 111,500 美元，我们可能会看到短期突破 114,000 美元，如果势头增强，还有可能攀升得更高。

The Gold Connection

黄金连接

Interestingly, gold experienced some sharp losses around the same time. Some analysts believe that capital might be flowing from gold into riskier assets like crypto. Considering gold's massive market value compared to Bitcoin, even a small percentage shift could send Bitcoin's price soaring.

有趣的是，黄金大约在同一时间经历了一些大幅下跌。一些分析师认为，资本可能会从黄金流向加密货币等风险较高的资产。考虑到黄金与比特币相比的巨大市场价值，即使是很小的百分比变化也可能导致比特币的价格飙升。

The Disbelief Phase

怀疑阶段

Some analysts are suggesting that Bitcoin might be entering a "disbelief phase" after a recent crash. This is when a new uptrend begins, but most investors remain skeptical. Negative funding rates in the derivatives market indicate that traders are still slightly bearish. However, the longer Bitcoin stays in this phase, the stronger the potential for an explosive upside move becomes, potentially triggering a short squeeze towards $113,000 or even $126,000.

一些分析师表示，在最近的崩盘之后，比特币可能会进入“难以置信的阶段”。这是新的上升趋势开始的时候，但大多数投资者仍持怀疑态度。衍生品市场的负资金利率表明交易者仍略显看跌。然而，比特币在这一阶段停留的时间越长，爆发性上涨的潜力就越强，可能会引发空头逼近 113,000 美元甚至 126,000 美元。

Final Thoughts

最后的想法

So, what's the takeaway? Bitcoin's price action is a complex dance between buyers and sellers. While there's no guarantee of a breakout, several factors – cooling selling pressure, bullish technical indicators, potential capital flow from gold, and the possibility of a short squeeze – suggest that the sellers might be getting tired. Of course, always do your own research and remember, in the crazy world of crypto, anything can happen. But hey, that's what makes it fun, right? Keep your eyes peeled, folks!

那么，要点是什么？比特币的价格行为是买家和卖家之间复杂的舞蹈。虽然不能保证突破，但一些因素——抛售压力降温、看涨的技术指标、黄金的潜在资金流以及轧空的可能性——表明卖家可能会感到疲倦。当然，一定要做好自己的研究，并记住，在疯狂的加密世界中，任何事情都有可能发生。但是，嘿，这就是它的乐趣，对吧？各位，请擦亮眼睛！