分析師預測比特幣暴跌至 50,000-52,000 美元

由於 ETF 流出、市場對現貨 ETF 反應疲軟以及更廣泛的宏觀經濟狀況等因素，領先的加密貨幣比特幣 (BTC) 預計將跌至 50,000 至 52,000 美元。儘管短期前景看跌，渣打銀行仍看好比特幣的長期前景，預測到 2024 年比特幣目標價為 15 萬美元，到 2025 年為 25 萬美元。

Bitcoin Faces Steep Decline, Analyst Predicts Drop to $50,000-$52,000

比特幣面臨大幅下跌，分析師預測跌至 50,000-52,000 美元

Jakarta, Indonesia - Bitcoin (BTC), the preeminent cryptocurrency in the market, is experiencing a significant devaluation, prompting analysts to revise their price forecasts. Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoffrey Kendrick has projected a potential跌幅of Bitcoin to a range between $50,000 and $52,000, a decline from its recent level above the psychological threshold of $60,000.

印尼雅加達 - 市場上最重要的加密貨幣比特幣（BTC）正在經歷大幅貶值，促使分析師修改其價格預測。渣打銀行分析師 Geoffrey Kendrick 預計比特幣的潛在跌幅將在 50,000 美元至 52,000 美元之間，較近期高於 60,000 美元心理門檻的水平有所下降。

Kendrick attributes this anticipated decline to a combination of factors, including consecutive outflows from bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States and a lukewarm market response to the launch of bitcoin and ether spot ETFs in Hong Kong. The analyst also points to the lackluster trading volume in Hong Kong's spot crypto ETF as a contributor to the recent Bitcoin price drop.

肯德里克將這一預期的下跌歸因於多種因素，包括美國比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的連續流出，以及市場對香港推出比特幣和以太幣現貨 ETF 的反應冷淡。該分析師也指出，香港現貨加密 ETF 交易量低迷是近期比特幣價格下跌的一個原因。

Beyond the specific factors affecting the cryptocurrency market, Standard Chartered's analysis highlights the broader macroeconomic environment as a contributing factor to Bitcoin's price weakness. Kendrick emphasizes that the reduction in liquidity measures, particularly in the United States since mid-April, has adversely impacted assets like cryptocurrencies that typically thrive in an environment of ample liquidity.

除了影響加密貨幣市場的具體因素之外，渣打銀行的分析也強調，更廣泛的宏觀經濟環境是導致比特幣價格疲軟的因素。肯德里克強調，流動性措施的減少，特別是自 4 月中旬以來的美國流動性措施的減少，對通常在流動性充足的環境中蓬勃發展的加密貨幣等資產產生了不利影響。

Amid the heightened geopolitical tensions and the prospect of more aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation, Kendrick underscores the importance of liquidity. The analyst notes that a supportive reading in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for release on May 15 could further weigh on Bitcoin's price, potentially pushing it into the lower price range.

在地緣政治緊張局勢加劇以及聯準會為應對通膨而採取更積極的貨幣政策緊縮的前景中，肯德里克強調了流動性的重要性。該分析師指出，定於 5 月 15 日發布的美國消費者物價指數 (CPI) 數據的支援讀數可能會進一步打壓比特幣的價格，有可能將其推至較低的價格區間。

Despite the near-term bearish outlook, Standard Chartered maintains a positive long-term view on Bitcoin. The bank has even raised its year-end price target for Bitcoin in 2024 to a range between $100,000 and $150,000, implying a potential rise to $250,000 by 2025, contingent upon strong inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs and potential purchases by foreign exchange reserve managers.

儘管近期前景看跌，渣打銀行仍對比特幣保持正面的長期看法。該銀行甚至將比特幣2024 年底目標價上調至10 萬美元至15 萬美元之間，這意味著到2025 年，比特幣價格可能會上漲至25 萬美元，具體取決於現貨比特幣ETF 的大量流入以及外匯儲備經理的潛在購買。

Kendrick acknowledges that the realization of this bullish scenario may take time, but he suggests that the approach of the US presidential election, which former President Donald Trump could potentially win, might trigger a surge in Bitcoin's price from around September through the end of the year.

肯德里克承認，這種看漲情景的實現可能需要時間，但他表示，前總統唐納德·川普可能獲勝的美國總統大選臨近，可能會引發比特幣價格從 9 月左右到年底的飆升。

The analyst's predictions, however, should be taken with caution, as the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile and subject to unpredictable external factors. Investors are advised to conduct thorough research and exercise caution before making investment decisions.

然而，分析師的預測應謹慎對待，因為加密貨幣市場仍然高度波動，並受到不可預測的外部因素的影響。建議投資者在做出投資決定前進行充分研究並謹慎行事。