分析师预测比特币暴跌至 50,000-52,000 美元

由于 ETF 流出、市场对现货 ETF 反应疲软以及更广泛的宏观经济状况等因素，领先的加密货币比特币 (BTC) 预计将跌至 50,000 至 52,000 美元。尽管短期前景看跌，渣打银行仍然看好比特币的长期前景，预测到 2024 年比特币目标价格为 15 万美元，到 2025 年为 25 万美元。

Bitcoin Faces Steep Decline, Analyst Predicts Drop to $50,000-$52,000

比特币面临大幅下跌，分析师预测跌至 50,000-52,000 美元

Jakarta, Indonesia - Bitcoin (BTC), the preeminent cryptocurrency in the market, is experiencing a significant devaluation, prompting analysts to revise their price forecasts. Standard Chartered Bank analyst Geoffrey Kendrick has projected a potential跌幅of Bitcoin to a range between $50,000 and $52,000, a decline from its recent level above the psychological threshold of $60,000.

印度尼西亚雅加达 - 市场上最重要的加密货币比特币（BTC）正在经历大幅贬值，促使分析师修改其价格预测。渣打银行分析师 Geoffrey Kendrick 预计比特币的潜在跌幅将在 50,000 美元至 52,000 美元之间，较近期高于 60,000 美元心理门槛的水平有所下降。

Kendrick attributes this anticipated decline to a combination of factors, including consecutive outflows from bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States and a lukewarm market response to the launch of bitcoin and ether spot ETFs in Hong Kong. The analyst also points to the lackluster trading volume in Hong Kong's spot crypto ETF as a contributor to the recent Bitcoin price drop.

肯德里克将这一预期的下跌归因于多种因素，包括美国比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的连续流出，以及市场对香港推出比特币和以太币现货 ETF 的反应冷淡。该分析师还指出，香港现货加密 ETF 交易量低迷是近期比特币价格下跌的一个原因。

Beyond the specific factors affecting the cryptocurrency market, Standard Chartered's analysis highlights the broader macroeconomic environment as a contributing factor to Bitcoin's price weakness. Kendrick emphasizes that the reduction in liquidity measures, particularly in the United States since mid-April, has adversely impacted assets like cryptocurrencies that typically thrive in an environment of ample liquidity.

除了影响加密货币市场的具体因素之外，渣打银行的分析还强调，更广泛的宏观经济环境是导致比特币价格疲软的一个因素。肯德里克强调，流动性措施的减少，特别是自 4 月中旬以来的美国流动性措施的减少，对通常在流动性充足的环境中蓬勃发展的加密货币等资产产生了不利影响。

Amid the heightened geopolitical tensions and the prospect of more aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation, Kendrick underscores the importance of liquidity. The analyst notes that a supportive reading in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for release on May 15 could further weigh on Bitcoin's price, potentially pushing it into the lower price range.

在地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及美联储为应对通胀而采取更积极的货币政策紧缩的前景中，肯德里克强调了流动性的重要性。该分析师指出，定于 5 月 15 日发布的美国消费者价格指数 (CPI) 数据的支持性读数可能会进一步打压比特币的价格，有可能将其推至较低的价格区间。

Despite the near-term bearish outlook, Standard Chartered maintains a positive long-term view on Bitcoin. The bank has even raised its year-end price target for Bitcoin in 2024 to a range between $100,000 and $150,000, implying a potential rise to $250,000 by 2025, contingent upon strong inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs and potential purchases by foreign exchange reserve managers.

尽管近期前景看跌，渣打银行仍对比特币保持积极的长期看法。该银行甚至将比特币 2024 年年底价格目标上调至 10 万美元至 15 万美元之间，这意味着到 2025 年，比特币价格可能会上涨至 25 万美元，具体取决于现货比特币 ETF 的大量流入以及外汇储备经理的潜在购买。

Kendrick acknowledges that the realization of this bullish scenario may take time, but he suggests that the approach of the US presidential election, which former President Donald Trump could potentially win, might trigger a surge in Bitcoin's price from around September through the end of the year.

肯德里克承认，这种看涨情景的实现可能需要时间，但他表示，前总统唐纳德·特朗普可能获胜的美国总统大选临近，可能会引发比特币价格从 9 月左右到年底的飙升。

The analyst's predictions, however, should be taken with caution, as the cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile and subject to unpredictable external factors. Investors are advised to conduct thorough research and exercise caution before making investment decisions.

然而，分析师的预测应谨慎对待，因为加密货币市场仍然高度波动，并受到不可预测的外部因素的影响。建议投资者在做出投资决定前进行充分研究并谨慎行事。