比特幣在 6 萬美元門檻下可能面臨恐慌性拋售

著名加密貨幣分析師 Alex Kuptsikevich 警告說，如果比特幣跌破 60,000 美元，可能會出現“恐慌性拋售”，並指出低點和高點較低的模式。積極的市場情緒取決於突破 65,000 美元，短期比特幣持有者可能會在未來幾個月影響市場。

Bitcoin Faces Potential Panic Sell-Off as It Nears Critical $60,000 Threshold

比特幣接近 6 萬美元臨界點，面臨潛在的恐慌性拋售

Renowned crypto analyst and FX Pro trader, Alex Kuptsikevich, has issued a stern warning that Bitcoin could experience a severe panic sell-off if it falls below the crucial $60,000 level in the near future. His analysis is based on a comprehensive examination of market sentiment, which indicates that crypto traders are eagerly anticipating a breakout above $65,000 in order for the market to regain a bullish momentum.

著名加密貨幣分析師和 FX Pro 交易員 Alex Kuptsikevich 發出嚴厲警告，如果比特幣在不久的將來跌破 60,000 美元的關鍵水平，可能會經歷嚴重的恐慌性拋售。他的分析是基於對市場情緒的全面審視，這表明加密貨幣交易者熱切期待突破 65,000 美元，以便市場重新獲得看漲勢頭。

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin briefly surged to $63,000 on Monday, March 8th, alongside a general upswing in the altcoin market. Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin all witnessed gains of approximately 3% as the price of Bitcoin surged. Ton, the native token of the Telegram-associated Tonchain blockchain ecosystem, led the price surge with a notable 7% increase on Monday morning.

據 CoinDesk 稱，3 月 8 日星期一，隨著山寨幣市場的普遍上漲，比特幣一度飆升至 63,000 美元。隨著比特幣價格飆升，以太幣、Solana 和狗狗幣均上漲了約 3%。 Ton 是與 Telegram 相關的 Tonchain 區塊鏈生態系統的原生代幣，週一上午以 7% 的漲幅引領價格飆升。

Despite these short-lived gains, Bitcoin has been languishing within a narrow range between $60,000 and $70,000 since March. The underwhelming impact of the highly anticipated halving event on Bitcoin's price, coupled with a decline in inflows from Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), has contributed to an overall bearish market sentiment.

儘管漲幅短暫，但自 3 月以來，比特幣一直在 6 萬美元至 7 萬美元之間的窄幅區間內徘徊。備受期待的減半事件對比特幣價格的影響不大，加上交易所交易基金（ETF）資金流入下降，導致市場整體看跌情緒。

In a note to Coin Desk, Kuptsikevich elaborated on his analysis, highlighting a sequence of lower lows and lower highs in the price action, suggesting that investors are prone to selling into strength during price rallies. Moreover, he noted that the drop in mining difficulty post-halving has likely exerted pressure on the market, potentially stemming from asset sell-offs by miners and concerns over tighter regulation of cryptocurrencies.

Kuptsikevich 在給 Coin Desk 的一份報告中詳細闡述了他的分析，強調了價格走勢中一系列較低的低點和較低的高點，這表明投資者傾向於在價格上漲期間逢高拋售。此外，他指出，減半後挖礦難度的下降可能會對市場造成壓力，這可能源自於礦商拋售資產以及對加密貨幣監管收緊的擔憂。

Kuptsikevich emphasized that a failure below $60,000 could trigger a substantial panic sell-off. Conversely, he believes that a rise above $65,000 would shift sentiment positively, fixing the price at the 50-day moving average and reversing the trend that began in early May.

Kuptsikevich 強調，跌破 6 萬美元可能會引發大規模恐慌性拋售。相反，他認為升破 65,000 美元將積極改變市場情緒，將價格固定在 50 日移動平均線，並扭轉 5 月初開始的趨勢。

Beyond Kuptsikevich's analysis, the mathematical puzzles encountered by miners have increased in difficulty, requiring more resources to solve them. This has rendered the business model for mining crypto less attractive and unprofitable, leading to a reduction in the number of miners.

除了庫普齊克維奇的分析之外，礦工遇到的數學難題的難度也增加了，需要更多的資源來解決它們。這使得加密貨幣挖礦的商業模式吸引力下降且無利可圖，導致礦工數量減少。

Furthermore, analysts from crypto investment firm Ryze Labs have emphasized the potential influence of short-term Bitcoin holders in shaping the market's direction. They observed that only three instances have occurred where 94% of short-term Bitcoin holders and long-term holders were simultaneously in profit. These periods transpired from mid-November 2017 to mid-April 2017, mid-February to mid-April 2021, and most recently, from the end of February 2024 to the beginning of April.

此外，加密貨幣投資公司 Ryze Labs 的分析師強調了短期比特幣持有者在塑造市場方向的潛在影響。他們觀察到，只有 3 個例子中 94% 的短期比特幣持有者和長期持有者同時獲利。這些時期發生在2017年11月中旬至2017年4月中旬、2021年2月中旬至4月中旬，以及最近的2024年2月底至4月初。

During these peak price periods, long-term holders and miners sold Bitcoin to short-term holders, who held it for less than 155 days. Subsequently, short-term holders experienced significant losses, prompting them to sell Bitcoin back to long-term holders. Ryze Labs' analyst team has noted that this shift has historically led to noteworthy Bitcoin price drops within four to six months.

在價格高峰期間，長期持有者和礦工將比特幣出售給持有時間少於 155 天的短期持有者。隨後，短期持有者遭受了重大損失，促使他們將比特幣賣回給長期持有者。 Ryze Labs 的分析師團隊指出，這種轉變歷來導致比特幣價格在四到六個月內大幅下跌。

Although the analyst acknowledges that institutional demand, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions, may mitigate a Bitcoin price drop at present, they caution that if these factors weaken, a decline similar to past cycles could occur.

儘管分析師承認，在宏觀經濟狀況改善的支持下，機構需求可能會緩解目前比特幣價格的下跌，但他們警告說，如果這些因素減弱，可能會出現類似過去週期的下跌。

In conclusion, Bitcoin's price currently hovers just above $62,000, while Ethereum, the second-largest crypto asset, has fallen below its $3000 mark. The Bitcoin halving event in mid-April did not produce the anticipated impact on Bitcoin's price. This event, which halved the reward miners receive for mining crypto, was expected to reduce the number of miners, making Bitcoin scarcer and ultimately driving up its price. However, the event's influence on Bitcoin's price has been underwhelming.

總而言之，比特幣的價格目前徘徊在 62,000 美元上方，而第二大加密資產以太幣已跌破 3,000 美元大關。 4月中旬的比特幣減半事件並沒有對比特幣價格產生預期的影響。這一事件導致礦工開採加密貨幣的獎勵減半，預計將減少礦工數量，使比特幣變得更加稀缺，並最終推高其價格。然而，該事件對比特幣價格的影響一直不大。