比特币在 6 万美元门槛下可能面临恐慌性抛售

著名加密货币分析师 Alex Kuptsikevich 警告说，如果比特币跌破 60,000 美元，可能会出现“恐慌性抛售”，并指出低点和高点较低的模式。积极的市场情绪取决于突破 65,000 美元，短期比特币持有者可能会在未来几个月影响市场。

Bitcoin Faces Potential Panic Sell-Off as It Nears Critical $60,000 Threshold

比特币接近 60,000 美元临界点，面临潜在的恐慌性抛售

Renowned crypto analyst and FX Pro trader, Alex Kuptsikevich, has issued a stern warning that Bitcoin could experience a severe panic sell-off if it falls below the crucial $60,000 level in the near future. His analysis is based on a comprehensive examination of market sentiment, which indicates that crypto traders are eagerly anticipating a breakout above $65,000 in order for the market to regain a bullish momentum.

著名加密货币分析师和 FX Pro 交易员 Alex Kuptsikevich 发出严厉警告，如果比特币在不久的将来跌破 60,000 美元的关键水平，可能会经历严重的恐慌性抛售。他的分析基于对市场情绪的全面审视，这表明加密货币交易者热切期待突破 65,000 美元，以便市场重新获得看涨势头。

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin briefly surged to $63,000 on Monday, March 8th, alongside a general upswing in the altcoin market. Ethereum, Solana, and Dogecoin all witnessed gains of approximately 3% as the price of Bitcoin surged. Ton, the native token of the Telegram-associated Tonchain blockchain ecosystem, led the price surge with a notable 7% increase on Monday morning.

据 CoinDesk 称，3 月 8 日星期一，随着山寨币市场的普遍上涨，比特币一度飙升至 63,000 美元。随着比特币价格飙升，以太坊、Solana 和狗狗币均上涨了约 3%。 Ton 是与 Telegram 相关的 Tonchain 区块链生态系统的原生代币，周一上午以 7% 的涨幅引领价格飙升。

Despite these short-lived gains, Bitcoin has been languishing within a narrow range between $60,000 and $70,000 since March. The underwhelming impact of the highly anticipated halving event on Bitcoin's price, coupled with a decline in inflows from Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), has contributed to an overall bearish market sentiment.

尽管涨幅短暂，但自 3 月份以来，比特币一直在 60,000 美元至 70,000 美元之间的窄幅区间内徘徊。备受期待的减半事件对比特币价格的影响不大，加上交易所交易基金（ETF）资金流入下降，导致市场整体看跌情绪。

In a note to Coin Desk, Kuptsikevich elaborated on his analysis, highlighting a sequence of lower lows and lower highs in the price action, suggesting that investors are prone to selling into strength during price rallies. Moreover, he noted that the drop in mining difficulty post-halving has likely exerted pressure on the market, potentially stemming from asset sell-offs by miners and concerns over tighter regulation of cryptocurrencies.

Kuptsikevich 在给 Coin Desk 的一份报告中详细阐述了他的分析，强调了价格走势中一系列较低的低点和较低的高点，这表明投资者倾向于在价格上涨期间逢高抛售。此外，他指出，减半后挖矿难度的下降可能给市场带来压力，这可能源于矿商抛售资产以及对加密货币监管收紧的担忧。

Kuptsikevich emphasized that a failure below $60,000 could trigger a substantial panic sell-off. Conversely, he believes that a rise above $65,000 would shift sentiment positively, fixing the price at the 50-day moving average and reversing the trend that began in early May.

Kuptsikevich 强调，跌破 60,000 美元可能会引发大规模恐慌性抛售。相反，他认为升破 65,000 美元将积极改变市场情绪，将价格固定在 50 日移动平均线，并扭转 5 月初开始的趋势。

Beyond Kuptsikevich's analysis, the mathematical puzzles encountered by miners have increased in difficulty, requiring more resources to solve them. This has rendered the business model for mining crypto less attractive and unprofitable, leading to a reduction in the number of miners.

除了库普齐克维奇的分析之外，矿工遇到的数学难题的难度也增加了，需要更多的资源来解决它们。这使得加密货币挖矿的商业模式吸引力下降且无利可图，导致矿工数量减少。

Furthermore, analysts from crypto investment firm Ryze Labs have emphasized the potential influence of short-term Bitcoin holders in shaping the market's direction. They observed that only three instances have occurred where 94% of short-term Bitcoin holders and long-term holders were simultaneously in profit. These periods transpired from mid-November 2017 to mid-April 2017, mid-February to mid-April 2021, and most recently, from the end of February 2024 to the beginning of April.

此外，加密货币投资公司 Ryze Labs 的分析师强调了短期比特币持有者在塑造市场方向方面的潜在影响。他们观察到，只有 3 个例子中 94% 的短期比特币持有者和长期持有者同时获利。这些时期发生在2017年11月中旬至2017年4月中旬、2021年2月中旬至4月中旬，以及最近的2024年2月底至4月初。

During these peak price periods, long-term holders and miners sold Bitcoin to short-term holders, who held it for less than 155 days. Subsequently, short-term holders experienced significant losses, prompting them to sell Bitcoin back to long-term holders. Ryze Labs' analyst team has noted that this shift has historically led to noteworthy Bitcoin price drops within four to six months.

在价格高峰期间，长期持有者和矿工将比特币出售给持有时间少于 155 天的短期持有者。随后，短期持有者遭受了重大损失，促使他们将比特币卖回给长期持有者。 Ryze Labs 的分析师团队指出，这种转变历来导致比特币价格在四到六个月内大幅下跌。

Although the analyst acknowledges that institutional demand, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions, may mitigate a Bitcoin price drop at present, they caution that if these factors weaken, a decline similar to past cycles could occur.

尽管分析师承认，在宏观经济状况改善的支持下，机构需求可能会缓解目前比特币价格的下跌，但他们警告说，如果这些因素减弱，可能会出现类似于过去周期的下跌。

In conclusion, Bitcoin's price currently hovers just above $62,000, while Ethereum, the second-largest crypto asset, has fallen below its $3000 mark. The Bitcoin halving event in mid-April did not produce the anticipated impact on Bitcoin's price. This event, which halved the reward miners receive for mining crypto, was expected to reduce the number of miners, making Bitcoin scarcer and ultimately driving up its price. However, the event's influence on Bitcoin's price has been underwhelming.

总而言之，比特币的价格目前徘徊在 62,000 美元上方，而第二大加密资产以太坊已跌破 3000 美元大关。 4月中旬的比特币减半事件并没有对比特币价格产生预期的影响。这一事件导致矿工开采加密货币的奖励减半，预计将减少矿工数量，使比特币变得更加稀缺，并最终推高其价格。然而，该事件对比特币价格的影响一直不大。