比特幣的NVT Golden Cross：當地的頂級釀造嗎？

比特幣NVT Golden Cross正在信號潛在的市場過熱。是當地的最迫在眉睫的，還是這只是下一次激增之前的臨時停頓？

Bitcoin's been on a wild ride, and while it's showing signs of strength, some indicators are flashing caution. The NVT Golden Cross is rising, hinting at a possible local top. Buckle up, because things might get interesting.

比特幣一直在瘋狂地旅行，儘管它顯示出強度的跡象，但一些指標卻謹慎。 NVT Golden Cross正在上升，暗示了可能的當地頂部。係好，因為事情可能會變得有趣。

What's the NVT Golden Cross?

什麼是NVT Golden Cross？

Think of the NVT Golden Cross as Bitcoin's early warning system. It compares short-term and long-term moving averages of the NVT ratio. When the short-term NVT crosses above the long-term average, it often signals that Bitcoin is becoming overvalued and might face a correction.

將NVT Golden Cross視為比特幣的預警系統。它比較了NVT比的短期和長期移動平均值。當短期NVT超過長期平均水平時，它通常會表明比特幣被高估並可能面臨更正。

In 2025 alone, this indicator nailed three local tops. February 5th, March 24th, and most recently, June 16th. Each time, the NVT Golden Cross peaked, and Bitcoin took a dip. Currently, it stands at 1.98, creeping closer to the key 2.2 threshold.

僅在2025年，該指標就釘了三個本地頂部。 2月5日，3月24日，最近6月16日。每次，NVT Golden Cross都達到頂峰，比特幣都傾斜。目前，它的位置為1.98，越來越接近鑰匙2.2閾值。

Overheating or Just Warming Up?

過熱還是只是熱身？

CryptoQuant analyst burakkesmeci notes that crossing 2.2 might suggest Bitcoin is heating up in the short-term, but it could also signal a return of bullish momentum in the medium-term. It's a bit of a mixed signal, leaving analysts split on the short-term price action.

加密分析師Burakkesmeci指出，Crossing 2.2可能表明比特幣在短期內正在加熱，但它也可能表明在中期中，看漲勢頭的回歸。這是一個混合的信號，使分析師在短期價格行動上分配。

Some analysts foresee a short-term pullback before Bitcoin hits new highs. One analyst, Chistian Chifoi, described the current BTC price action as a “deceptive setup,” warning it may trap bulls before a possible surge toward a new all-time high (ATH) of $160,000. Meanwhile, Glassnode forecasts BTC’s short-term peak at $117,000.

一些分析師預見到比特幣達到新高點之前，短期回調。一位分析師Chistian Chifoi將目前的BTC價格行動描述為“欺騙性的設置”，警告說，它可能會在可能的新歷史最高（ATH）籌集160,000美元的新時光之前將公牛捕獲。同時，GlassNode預測BTC的短期峰值為117,000美元。

Institutional Adoption and Market Dynamics

機構採用和市場動態

It's not all about technical indicators. Spain's BBVA bank has rolled out crypto trading and custody for all customers, including retail investors, allowing them to buy, sell, and hold Bitcoin and Ethereum directly through the bank's app. This kind of institutional adoption adds fuel to the fire, contributing to the rally in BTC and ETH prices.

這並不全是技術指標。西班牙的BBVA銀行已針對包括零售投資者在內的所有客戶推出了加密貨幣交易和監護權，允許他們直接通過銀行的應用直接購買，出售和持有比特幣和以太坊。這種機構採用為大火增加了燃料，這導致了BTC和ETH價格的集會。

However, Bitfinex's research arm suggests Bitcoin could be losing momentum. They point to cooling spot volume, weakened taker buy pressure, and intensified profit-taking as signs of a potential consolidation or local top.

但是，Bitfinex的研究部門表明比特幣可能會失去動力。他們指出了冷卻斑點的量，削弱了接管者的購買壓力，並增加了利潤量，這是潛在合併或當地頂部的跡象。

So, What's the Verdict?

那麼，判決是什麼？

Bitcoin's at a crossroads. The NVT Golden Cross is flashing, analysts are divided, and market dynamics are shifting. Bitfinex researchers argue that Bitcoin could witness short-term price upticks but will likely remain range-bound until it sees a significant surge in new demand. They emphasize that “For now, Bitcoin is in a waiting game.

比特幣在十字路口。 NVT Golden Cross正在閃爍，分析師被分開，市場動態正在轉移。 Bitfinex的研究人員認為，比特幣可以見證短期價格上漲，但可能會保持範圍，直到看到新需求的巨大激增為止。他們強調說：“目前，比特幣正在等待遊戲中。