比特币的NVT Golden Cross：当地的顶级酿造吗？

比特币NVT Golden Cross正在信号潜在的市场过热。是当地的最迫在眉睫的，还是这只是下一次激增之前的临时停顿？

Bitcoin's been on a wild ride, and while it's showing signs of strength, some indicators are flashing caution. The NVT Golden Cross is rising, hinting at a possible local top. Buckle up, because things might get interesting.

比特币一直在疯狂地旅行，尽管它显示出强度的迹象，但一些指标却谨慎。 NVT Golden Cross正在上升，暗示了可能的当地顶部。系好，因为事情可能会变得有趣。

What's the NVT Golden Cross?

什么是NVT Golden Cross？

Think of the NVT Golden Cross as Bitcoin's early warning system. It compares short-term and long-term moving averages of the NVT ratio. When the short-term NVT crosses above the long-term average, it often signals that Bitcoin is becoming overvalued and might face a correction.

将NVT Golden Cross视为比特币的预警系统。它比较了NVT比的短期和长期移动平均值。当短期NVT超过长期平均水平时，它通常会表明比特币被高估并可能面临更正。

In 2025 alone, this indicator nailed three local tops. February 5th, March 24th, and most recently, June 16th. Each time, the NVT Golden Cross peaked, and Bitcoin took a dip. Currently, it stands at 1.98, creeping closer to the key 2.2 threshold.

仅在2025年，该指标就钉了三个本地顶部。 2月5日，3月24日，最近6月16日。每次，NVT Golden Cross都达到顶峰，比特币都倾斜。目前，它的位置为1.98，越来越接近钥匙2.2阈值。

Overheating or Just Warming Up?

过热还是只是热身？

CryptoQuant analyst burakkesmeci notes that crossing 2.2 might suggest Bitcoin is heating up in the short-term, but it could also signal a return of bullish momentum in the medium-term. It's a bit of a mixed signal, leaving analysts split on the short-term price action.

加密分析师Burakkesmeci指出，Crossing 2.2可能表明比特币在短期内正在加热，但它也可能表明在中期中，看涨势头的回归。这是一个混合的信号，使分析师在短期价格行动上分配。

Some analysts foresee a short-term pullback before Bitcoin hits new highs. One analyst, Chistian Chifoi, described the current BTC price action as a “deceptive setup,” warning it may trap bulls before a possible surge toward a new all-time high (ATH) of $160,000. Meanwhile, Glassnode forecasts BTC’s short-term peak at $117,000.

一些分析师预见到比特币达到新高点之前，短期回调。一位分析师Chistian Chifoi将目前的BTC价格行动描述为“欺骗性的设置”，警告说，它可能会在可能的新历史最高（ATH）筹集160,000美元的新时光之前将公牛捕获。同时，GlassNode预测BTC的短期峰值为117,000美元。

Institutional Adoption and Market Dynamics

机构采用和市场动态

It's not all about technical indicators. Spain's BBVA bank has rolled out crypto trading and custody for all customers, including retail investors, allowing them to buy, sell, and hold Bitcoin and Ethereum directly through the bank's app. This kind of institutional adoption adds fuel to the fire, contributing to the rally in BTC and ETH prices.

这并不全是技术指标。西班牙的BBVA银行已针对包括零售投资者在内的所有客户推出了加密货币交易和监护权，允许他们直接通过银行的应用直接购买，出售和持有比特币和以太坊。这种机构采用为大火增加了燃料，这导致了BTC和ETH价格的集会。

However, Bitfinex's research arm suggests Bitcoin could be losing momentum. They point to cooling spot volume, weakened taker buy pressure, and intensified profit-taking as signs of a potential consolidation or local top.

但是，Bitfinex的研究部门表明比特币可能会失去动力。他们指出了冷却斑点的量，削弱了接管者的购买压力，并增加了利润量，这是潜在合并或当地顶部的迹象。

So, What's the Verdict?

那么，判决是什么？

Bitcoin's at a crossroads. The NVT Golden Cross is flashing, analysts are divided, and market dynamics are shifting. Bitfinex researchers argue that Bitcoin could witness short-term price upticks but will likely remain range-bound until it sees a significant surge in new demand. They emphasize that “For now, Bitcoin is in a waiting game.

比特币在十字路口。 NVT Golden Cross正在闪烁，分析师被分开，市场动态正在转移。 Bitfinex的研究人员认为，比特币可以见证短期价格上涨，但可能会保持范围，直到看到新需求的巨大激增为止。他们强调说：“目前，比特币正在等待游戏中。