比特幣 MVRV 定價區間可以提供下一步走勢的提示

基於鏈上指標的比特幣定價模型的數據表明，77,600 美元可能是該資產達到下一個高峰的水平。

A data point from a Bitcoin pricing model that utilizes an on-chain indicator suggests that the next peak for the asset could be at the $77,600 level.

利用鏈上指標的比特幣定價模型的數據點表明，該資產的下一個高峰可能是 77,600 美元的水平。

Bitcoin MVRV Pricing Bands May Hint At What’s Coming Next

比特幣 MVRV 定價區間可能暗示接下來會發生什麼

Analyst Ali covered what the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Pricing Bands model might be indicating for the cryptocurrency’s future in a recent post on X.

分析師 Ali 在 X 最近的一篇文章中介紹了市場價值與實現價值 (MVRV) 定價區間模型可能對加密貨幣的未來有何影響。

The MVRV ratio is a well-known on-chain indicator that measures the Bitcoin market cap against its realized cap. The total valuation of the asset at the current spot price is the former, whereas a model that calculates the asset’s cap by assuming the “true” value of any coin in circulation is the price at which it was last transferred on the blockchain is the latter.

MVRV 比率是一個著名的鏈上指標，用於衡量比特幣市值與其已實現市值的比值。當前現貨價格下資產的總估值是前者，而透過假設流通中任何代幣的「真實」價值是其最後一次在區塊鏈上轉移的價格來計算資產上限的模型是後者。

Any coin on the network was last transferred the last time it changed hands, and the price at that time would be its current cost basis. As a result, the realized cap keeps track of the total cost basis for every investor in the market.

網路上的任何代幣最後一次轉移都是在最後一次轉手時，當時的價格將是其當前的成本基礎。因此，已實現上限追蹤市場上每個投資者的總成本基礎。

Hence, the MVRV ratio indicates how the investors’ value (the market cap) compares to the value they put in (the realized cap).

因此，MVRV 比率顯示投資者的價值（市值）與他們投入的價值（已實現的上限）相比如何。

On-chain analytics company Glassnode developed a pricing bands model based on this indicator. The following graphic depicts the appearance of these price bands.

鏈上分析公司 Glassnode 基於此指標開發了定價區間模型。下圖描述了這些價格帶的外觀。

In this model, the pricing bands represent levels that correspond to a specific deviation from the mean for the MVRV ratio. The cryptocurrency is currently trading above the price level corresponding to a +0.5 standard deviation (SD) from the mean for the indicator, as can be seen in the chart.

在此模型中，定價區間表示與 MVRV 比率平均值的特定偏差相對應的水平。從圖表中可以看出，加密貨幣目前的交易價格高於與指標平均值 +0.5 標準差 (SD) 相對應的價格水準。

Specifically, the price level at which the MVRV ratio would be +0.5 SD above its mean is around $65,100. The next major pricing band in this model is +1 SD, which currently corresponds to around $77,600.

具體來說，MVRV 比率比其平均值高出+0.5 SD 的價格水準約為 65,100 美元。該模型的下一個主要定價區間是+1 SD，目前相當於 77,600 美元左右。

This level has historically served as the point at which BTC was likely to experience at least local tops. As the graph shows, BTC also broke this level during the rally top in March.

從歷史上看，這個水平一直是 BTC 可能至少經歷局部頂部的點。如圖所示，BTC 在 3 月的反彈頂部也突破了這一水平。

“According to the MVRV Pricing Bands, if Bitcoin continues trading above $65,125, the next local BTC top before a short correction could be around $77,593!” the analyst notes.

“根據 MVRV 定價帶，如果比特幣繼續交易至 65,125 美元以上，則短期調整前的下一個本地比特幣頂部可能在 77,593 美元左右！”分析師指出。

A potential rally to a new all-time high of $77,593 would represent an increase of over 11% for the asset from the current spot price of the cryptocurrency. It remains to be seen how the asset’s price will develop from here and whether it will be able to maintain above the +0.5 SD MVRV level.

如果該資產可能上漲至 77,593 美元的歷史新高，則該資產較目前的加密貨幣現貨價格將上漲 11% 以上。該資產的價格將如何發展，以及是否能夠維持在 +0.5 SD MVRV 水準之上，還有待觀察。

BTC Price

比特幣價格

Bitcoin’s bullish momentum appears to have subsided since its earlier sharp surge as the asset has dropped to sideways movement around the $69,700 mark.

比特幣的看漲勢頭自早些時候的大幅飆升以來似乎已經消退，因為該資產已跌至 69,700 美元大關附近橫盤整理。