比特币 MVRV 定价区间可以提供有关下一步走势的提示

基于链上指标的比特币定价模型的数据表明，77,600 美元可能是该资产达到下一个峰值的水平。

A data point from a Bitcoin pricing model that utilizes an on-chain indicator suggests that the next peak for the asset could be at the $77,600 level.

利用链上指标的比特币定价模型的数据点表明，该资产的下一个峰值可能是 77,600 美元的水平。

Bitcoin MVRV Pricing Bands May Hint At What’s Coming Next

比特币 MVRV 定价区间可能暗示接下来会发生什么

Analyst Ali covered what the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Pricing Bands model might be indicating for the cryptocurrency’s future in a recent post on X.

分析师 Ali 在 X 最近的一篇文章中介绍了市场价值与实现价值 (MVRV) 定价区间模型可能对加密货币的未来有何影响。

The MVRV ratio is a well-known on-chain indicator that measures the Bitcoin market cap against its realized cap. The total valuation of the asset at the current spot price is the former, whereas a model that calculates the asset’s cap by assuming the “true” value of any coin in circulation is the price at which it was last transferred on the blockchain is the latter.

MVRV 比率是一个著名的链上指标，用于衡量比特币市值与其已实现市值的比值。当前现货价格下资产的总估值是前者，而通过假设流通中任何代币的“真实”价值是其最后一次在区块链上转移的价格来计算资产上限的模型是后者。

Any coin on the network was last transferred the last time it changed hands, and the price at that time would be its current cost basis. As a result, the realized cap keeps track of the total cost basis for every investor in the market.

网络上的任何代币最后一次转移都是在最后一次转手时，当时的价格将是其当前的成本基础。因此，已实现上限跟踪市场上每个投资者的总成本基础。

Hence, the MVRV ratio indicates how the investors’ value (the market cap) compares to the value they put in (the realized cap).

因此，MVRV 比率表明投资者的价值（市值）与他们投入的价值（已实现的上限）相比如何。

On-chain analytics company Glassnode developed a pricing bands model based on this indicator. The following graphic depicts the appearance of these price bands.

链上分析公司 Glassnode 基于该指标开发了定价区间模型。下图描述了这些价格带的外观。

In this model, the pricing bands represent levels that correspond to a specific deviation from the mean for the MVRV ratio. The cryptocurrency is currently trading above the price level corresponding to a +0.5 standard deviation (SD) from the mean for the indicator, as can be seen in the chart.

在此模型中，定价区间表示与 MVRV 比率平均值的特定偏差相对应的水平。从图表中可以看出，加密货币目前的交易价格高于与指标平均值 +0.5 标准差 (SD) 相对应的价格水平。

Specifically, the price level at which the MVRV ratio would be +0.5 SD above its mean is around $65,100. The next major pricing band in this model is +1 SD, which currently corresponds to around $77,600.

具体来说，MVRV 比率比其平均值高出+0.5 SD 的价格水平约为 65,100 美元。该模型的下一个主要定价区间是+1 SD，目前相当于 77,600 美元左右。

This level has historically served as the point at which BTC was likely to experience at least local tops. As the graph shows, BTC also broke this level during the rally top in March.

从历史上看，这个水平一直是 BTC 可能至少经历局部顶部的点。如图所示，BTC 在 3 月份的反弹顶部也突破了这一水平。

“According to the MVRV Pricing Bands, if Bitcoin continues trading above $65,125, the next local BTC top before a short correction could be around $77,593!” the analyst notes.

“根据 MVRV 定价带，如果比特币继续交易至 65,125 美元以上，则短期调整前的下一个本地比特币顶部可能在 77,593 美元左右！”分析师指出。

A potential rally to a new all-time high of $77,593 would represent an increase of over 11% for the asset from the current spot price of the cryptocurrency. It remains to be seen how the asset’s price will develop from here and whether it will be able to maintain above the +0.5 SD MVRV level.

如果该资产可能上涨至 77,593 美元的历史新高，则该资产较当前的加密货币现货价格将上涨 11% 以上。该资产的价格将如何发展，以及是否能够维持在 +0.5 SD MVRV 水平之上，还有待观察。

BTC Price

比特币价格

Bitcoin’s bullish momentum appears to have subsided since its earlier sharp surge as the asset has dropped to sideways movement around the $69,700 mark.

比特币的看涨势头自早些时候的大幅飙升以来似乎已经消退，因为该资产已跌至 69,700 美元大关附近横盘整理。