比特幣的MVRV動量：恢復在空中謹慎嗎？

比特幣籃板，但MVRV表示警告。公牛跑步是褪色的，還是還有生長的空間？通過有關恢復和風險的見解，將BTC的十字路口導航。

Bitcoin's MVRV Momentum: Recovery Caution in the Air?

比特幣的MVRV動量：恢復在空中謹慎嗎？

Bitcoin's recent rebound has sparked excitement, but on-chain data suggests a need for recovery caution. Is the bull run losing steam, or is there more upside potential ahead? Let's dive into the latest.

比特幣最近的反彈引起了興奮，但鏈上的數據表明需要恢復謹慎。公牛奔跑會失去蒸汽嗎？還是未來有更多的上升潛力？讓我們研究最新。

Bitcoin at a Crossroads

比特幣在十字路口

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown impressive resilience, rebounding 10% since last Sunday and reclaiming the $106,000 level. This recovery comes after a dip caused by geopolitical tensions, showcasing the underlying strength of the market. Bulls are confidently holding their ground, but momentum is stalling just below the critical $110,000 mark – the gateway to new all-time highs.

比特幣（BTC）表現出了令人印象深刻的彈性，自上週日以來籃板10％，並獲得了106,000美元的水平。這種恢復是在地緣政治緊張局勢引起的下降之後，展示了市場的基本力量。公牛隊自信地握住自己的地面，但動力正停在低於110,000美元的關鍵售價以下，這是通往新歷史最高高點的門戶。

MVRV Ratio: A Warning Sign?

MVRV比率：警告信號？

According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, the MVRV Ratio is flashing early warning signs. This metric, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, helps identify overvaluation zones. The 365-day moving average slope of the MVRV Ratio is starting to flatten, suggesting that bullish momentum could be fading, even as prices hold up.

根據加密量的鍊鍊數據，MVRV比率正在閃爍預警信號。該指標將比特幣的市場價值與其實現價值進行了比較，有助於識別高估區。 MVRV比率的365天移動平均斜率開始變平，這表明，即使價格上漲，也可能會逐漸消失。

What Does This Mean for Traders?

這對交易者意味著什麼？

This development doesn’t necessarily imply an imminent downtrend, but it does raise the possibility that Bitcoin is entering the late stages of this bull cycle. Historically, such phases often culminate in euphoric surges before topping out. Therefore, traders and investors must remain strategic, managing risk and capital allocation carefully.

這種發展並不一定意味著即將下降的趨勢，但確實增加了比特幣進入該公牛週期晚期的可能性。從歷史上看，這樣的階段通常在興高采烈的潮流中達到頂峰。因此，交易者和投資者必須保持戰略性，管理風險和資本分配。

Navigating Local Resistance

導航局部阻力

Currently trading around $107,227, Bitcoin is facing local resistance at $109,300. A clean break above this level could trigger a push into price discovery, with bulls targeting $115,000 and beyond. However, rejection at this level could lead to a retest of the $105,000 support. The 200-period SMA around $96,365 remains the ultimate support base in case of a deeper correction.

比特幣目前的交易約為107,227美元，面臨當地電阻的109,300美元。高於此水平的干淨突破可能會引發價格發現的推動，而公牛隊的目標是115,000美元及以後。但是，在這個水平上的拒絕可能會導致重新獲得105,000美元的支持。在更深層更深入的情況下，200美元的SMA約為96,365美元仍然是最終的支持基礎。

My Two Sats

我的兩個坐著

While the short-term recovery looks promising, the flattening MVRV Ratio suggests caution. It’s crucial to balance optimism with a pragmatic approach to risk management. Keep an eye on that $110,000 level – a break above it could signal the next major leg up, but be prepared for potential retracements if resistance holds. Tactical plays may be profitable, but ignoring macro and on-chain context at this stage could expose portfolios to unnecessary risk.

雖然短期恢復看起來很有希望，但變平的MVRV比表示謹慎。至關重要的是要平衡樂觀情緒與務實的風險管理方法。請密切關注那個$ 110,000的水平 - 上面的休息可能會標誌著下一個主要的腿，但如果阻力保持，請為潛在的回試做好準備。戰術戲劇可能是有利可圖的，但是在此階段忽略宏觀和鏈上環境可能會使投資組合面臨不必要的風險。

The Bottom Line

底線

Bitcoin's journey is never boring, is it? Keep your wits about you, watch those key levels, and remember, even in the crypto world, caution is a virtue. Happy trading, and may the sats be ever in your favor!

比特幣的旅程永遠不會無聊，是嗎？保持智慧，觀察這些關鍵水平，並記住，即使在加密世界中，謹慎也是一種美德。愉快的交易，願Sats對您有利！